Thursday, October 27, 2011
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However, the recent Kenyan invasion of Somalia on the pretext that Al-Shabab threatened Kenya at this time is deeply suspicious and troubling for the following reasons.
On Wednesday September 21st 2011 The French Oil giant Total acquires “40% interest in five offshore exploration blocks in the Lamu Basin, blocks L5, L7, L11a, L11b and L12” ( see company press release here). This is not actually in the Lamu Basin alone but encroaches on Somalia’s southern (Kismayo) Exclusive Economic Zone which is the target of the Kenyan Military occupation forces.
On October 8th 2011 the Somalia parliament overwhelmingly rejected and made illegal any attempt to meddle or change the Somalia's Exclusive Economic Zone. This is an area where Kenyan officials were lobbying to reduce Somalia’s Exclusive Economic Zone from 200 to 12 nautical miles.
The Kenyan military did not inform their intention to go after Al-Shaba to Somali TFG or the African Union Forces who are engaged fierce battles with Al-Shabab. The United States a close allied of Kenya was kept in the dark on this offensive as reported by New York Times “Kenya’s sudden incursion into Somalia over the weekend caught the United States “on its heels,” one American official said Thursday. A former American official with experience in Africa said Kenyan officers had given their American counterparts “zero” information before the offensive started.”
The Somali President condemned the Kenyan action and spoke against this illegal invasion “the strike degrades the trust built up between the two countries over the past few decades"
The timing of the Kenyan invasion couldn't have come at a worse time, in the sense that Somali Transitional Federal Government and supporting African Union Forces have cleared Al-Shabab from the capital Mogadishu in recent weeks and had the upper-hand militarily and financially. Clearing Al-Shabab from the Southern Somalia within months was a real possibility. The Kenyan invasion makes the job of the Somali Transitional Government and the African Union Forces much more difficult and may in fact reverse some of success they have had over the months.
Somali observers and specialists are perplexed why now and why do it in belligerently and disrespectful way towards the Somali Transitional Federal Government?
There is a strong possibility Kenya and French governments in cahoots with oil giant was unsuccessful buying the Somali parliament and annexing Somali sovereign territory for oil has became impossibility. They realized the Somali Transitional Government was more assertive and freeing southern Somalia from Al-Shabab was likely scenario. A pre-emptive strike was plan B solution to carve a small mini-state so called “buffer zone” with a puppet leadership guaranteeing a free reign on southern Somalia’ Economic Exclusive Zone.
Kenya believes the revenue from the off-shore oil drilling from the Somalia’s Economic Exclusive Zone is more than what they would have made declining tourist industry and is ready to gamble on it. Apparently Kenyan leaders will remember too late the old saying “Don’t gamble the rent money or you’ll land up sleeping on the park bench” I hope I am all wrong and the Kenyans mean well but I am not optimistic.
By Ali Osman
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