Tuesday, January 03, 2012
Despite inflicting damage on Al Shabaab
militia and expelling them from a large section of Gedo region, Kenyan
and Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops are not
under-estimating the militants’ ability to hit back.
What
KDF spokesman Col Cyrus Oguna meant in October last year when he said
war against Al Shabaab "is not a picnic" is underlined by TFG spokesman
Warfa Sheikh Aden in Somalia’s Burhache town.
Al
Shabaab is believed to have between 800 and 1,200 insurgents, including
foreign fighters in the three sectors. The foreigners mainly train
local insurgents in the use of heavy weapons and also prepare most of
the Improvised Explosive Devices (IED).
Through
propaganda the militants routinely deny their losses, make extravagant
claims of victory and exaggerate enemy losses on their radio station Al
Andalus and social media.
The
group’s techno-savvy campaigners have waged the propaganda war to mask
widening rifts within the movement and territorial losses as well as Al
Shabaab’s inability to re-supply their fighters effectively.
Kenya
Defence Forces (KDF) has established bases deep into Somalia, including
at Busar in the Northern Sector and Bilis Qooqani in the Central
Sector, but military planners are not underestimating Al Shabaab’s
ability to retaliate inside Somalia and on the Kenyan home front.
The
New Year attack on a bar in Garissa where five people were killed and
last Thursday’s killing of a KDF soldier at Bilis Qooqani by an IED are a
remainder of Al Shabaab’s capabilities.
KDF’s
strategy of attrition has taken away Al Shabaab’s training bases in
towns like Dobley and Busar and also cut main road accesses to Kenya and
the port of Kismayu, slowing down supplies and rearmament in the
hinterland.
The group, however,
is believed to have Russian made anti-aircraft guns of SE 23, DESHE 21
and SE 20 calibre, several artillery pieces (especially in the central
sector) and Dushka 12.7 millimetre machine guns mounted on pick-ups.
They are also believed to hold stocks of 60 and 82 millimetre caliber
mortar bombs and anti-tank missiles.
But
Al Shabaab’s ground vehicles are no match for Kenya’s Panhard tanks,
aerial vehicles, electronic and airborne reconnaissance and long-range
artillery besides the overall superior skill of Kenyan fighters that
include special forces.
Building up defence
In
the central sector Al Shabaab’s key leader for the lower Juba region
Hassan Turki is still hidden around Hayo plains with a band of hardened
fighters.
Besides IEDs, KDF
and TFG forces in the sector are encountering a constant stream of
fighters trying to move from Bardheere and Garbaharey areas through
Fafadun Southwards to defend Afmadow and Kismayu.
When
the KDF crossed into Somalia, the towns near the border fell easily,
almost without a fight although Al Shabaab had in many cases encouraged
or forced residents to flee from "infidels", but the militants tended to
resist the capture of towns further inland. Even where they fled
without a fight the militants have tried to recapture lost towns.
Busar,
about 73 kilometres from Somalia’s border with Kenya, is a case in
point. Al Shabaab offered a stiff resistance as the KDF swept in. A
soldier was killed mid November when the militants shelled a KDF base
with rocket propelled grenade.
Local
residents report that Al Shabaab fighters who stayed in Busar as the
Kenyans advanced say resistance crumbled within half an hour.
Major
Joel Tanui of KDF who led the capture of Busar told The Standard in an
exclusive interview recently that Al Shabaab fighters "tried to resist
from buildings and outskirts of the town".
The
militants reportedly unleashed a shower of rocket-propelled grenades
and light gunfire from hillsides and valleys around Busar, the most
important weapons in their arsenal, according to KDF and TFG.
The
joint forces’ officials say the militants change tactics to adapt to
its enemy’s strategy. So far it has not been able to detonate suicide
bombs on KDF forces, largely because of the strict rules of engagement
between the KDF and the civilian population and also due to the fact
that the militants have tended to flee from close combat.
Prior
to the Kenyan intervention Al Shabaab tended to deploy thousands of
fighters on trucks to seize towns. This tactic was used on Burhache, a
strategic town close to the Kenyan border, which the militants lost in
March last year.
On September
11, says TFG brigade commander for Gedo Abbas Ibrahim Gure, close to
2,700 fighters descended on the town from three directions from
Bardheere.
After a nightlong battle TFG lost 30 fighters and killed 170 militants, according to Abbas.
But due to the fear of airstrikes Al Shabaab has avoided road transport in favour of small teams of highly mobile fighters.
TFG
regional spokesman Warfa Sheikh Aden reports that Al Shabaab has lately
placed its fighters and trucks next to water wells and areas with
civilian concentrations.
Late
last month, Warfa says Kenyan war-planes averted an air-strike on Al
Shabaab fighters on a pick-up truck in the township of Yaqle in Northern
Gedo when the militants drove it to a well teeming with civilians.
According
to Warfa, the most decisive battle in the northern sector will be
fought in Bardheere and Burdubo, two key towns on the main highway to
Baidoa in South Central Somalia.
In
this sector Al Shabaab is believed to have moved many of its fighters
and heavy weapons to bridges on the Juba River, intending to dismantle
them if overpowered. It has also staged fighters, including foreigners
in the deep valleys and mountainous ranges around El Ade, which Kenyan
planes have bombed lately to slow or deter an advance on Bardheere.
When they move, they dismount from vehicles about sixty kilometres from targets to lay ambushes and plant IEDs often at night.
Says
Warfa: "They normally fight in the morning and evening so that they can
get adequate time to retreat under cover of darkness and cooler
temperatures. They also like to ambush from mountainous areas and deep
valleys. When their strength is low they remove their uniform and fight
within the civilian population."