Action urged to end status as failed state
By Bay Fang
Washington Bureau
Published January 7, 2007
WASHINGTON -- Thirteen years ago, the United States went into battle in Somalia to support a United Nations peacekeeping force, a mission that ended with haunting images of dead Americans being dragged through the streets of Mogadishu in the infamous "Black Hawk Down" moment.
It was a most difficult way to learn a hard lesson: Failure in Somalia has serious consequences. The nation became a seeding ground for Islamic militants who helped foment anti-American sentiment and threatened to destabilize the Horn of Africa.
Now, Americans are back in the region, heading up talks to form a unity government in Somalia after Ethiopian troops helped rout Islamic fundamentalists who had taken control of most of the country. Off the coast, U.S. warships patrolled to prevent the last of the Islamists from fleeing as government forces planned an assault on their last seaside redoubt.
Despite that involvement, and whatever larger role the U.S. might have played in ousting the Islamists, it remains an open question just how committed the U.S. and its international allies will be this time.
For the past 15 years, the country has been seen as a failed state, dominated first by feuding warlords and, since June, by Islamic groups that the U.S. suspected of harboring Al Qaeda militants. During that most recent period, the principal American interest centered on a desire to capture three Al Qaeda suspects wanted in the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in East Africa.
But since Ethiopia launched its surprising Dec. 24 strike against the Islamists, international players have an unexpected opportunity to help install a stable government.
If they fail, however, the specter of an Iraq-like guerrilla insurgency looms. Already, Al Qaeda's No. 2, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has called on Islamic militants to launch suicide attacks against Ethiopian troops.
On Saturday, hundreds protested in the streets of Mogadishu, throwing stones at Ethiopian tanks and chanting anti-government slogans in what was thought to be a demonstration organized by the routed Islamist forces.
"The U.S. needs to take a lesson from Afghanistan, when dealing with Somalia," said Karin von Hippel, co-director of the postconflict reconstruction project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "At every level, so many things could go wrong. If the U.S. only focuses on getting the Islamic guys out and doesn't support governance, they could easily reappear."
Urgent call for troops
In meetings that ended Friday in neighboring Kenya, the U.S., United Nations, European Union, African Union, Arab League and several East African states called for urgent funding for an 8,000-strong peacekeeping mission in Somalia. The talks were led by the top U.S. diplomat for Africa, Jendayi Frazer.
Frazer will visit Mogadishu on Sunday. She will be the first high-ranking U.S. official to set foot in the war-torn country since 1994, when the U.S. withdrew all its diplomats. She plans to spend four hours in the country, meeting with officials of the interim government and Somalian intellectuals.
The goal is to have regional peacekeepers in place by the end of the month, but so far, only Uganda has pledged troops. The U.S. has pledged a total of $40 million for development aid and the peacekeeping force.
The logistics of deploying the force will be difficult. The African Union has 7,000 troops serving in Sudan's Darfur region and may not have enough troops to contribute to Somalia.
"The UN will have to take responsibility at the end of the day, though it already has tremendous burdens," said a top EU diplomat. "There is competition between Somalia and Sudan for the same resources."
The transitional government is internationally recognized but weak and inexperienced. It was formed two years ago with help from the UN, but plagued with internal rifts, it never gained entry into Mogadishu, the capital, until last week and set up instead in Baidoa near the Ethiopian border. The interior minister, Hussein Aidid, is the son of a notorious warlord whose pursuit by American forces led to the Black Hawk Down incident.
Backed by 4,000 Ethiopian troops, the government has been greeted in Mogadishu with widespread skepticism, seen in the people's reluctance to comply with its mandate to disarm. In the three-day grace period, out of 2.5 million Mogadishu residents, fewer than 50 turned in weapons.
Although President Abdullahi Yusuf has indicated a willingness to make his government more inclusive, many fear his administration lacks the political will to make necessary concessions to rival clansmen and moderate elements of the routed Islamic Courts.
"It's up to the willingness of Ethiopia and the U.S. to come down hard on the transitional government to really reshuffle the deck," said John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group, who worked on Africa issues in former President Bill Clinton's National Security Council. "Unless there's a real power-sharing deal, it would be suicidal for any country to send in peacekeeping troops."
Source: Chicago Tribune, Jan 07, 2007