By Bernard Wamalwa

When the Ethiopian premier Mr Meles Zenawi arrived here on Wednesday for discussions with President Kibaki, it was not lost on observers that part of his agenda was to push for the deployment of a peace keeping force in Somalia. This, despite the fact that Ethiopia has deployed a significant number of soldiers in Somalia to "protect" the new government.

When Abdiqasim Salad Hassan took over in Mogadishu as Somalia’s new president in 2000, he had carried with him hope that the country’s fractious past would be over. Zenawi was among African leaders who attended the inauguration that ushered him and the Transitional National Government (TNG) of which he was the boss, into leadership.

It later turned out that the Ethiopian Government had never accepted the legitimacy of that government and even accused it of being led by Muslim extremists. That is how Ethiopia took over as the main destabilising force for that administration until its collapse.

Interestingly the Government, which Ethiopia now claims to be protecting had always existed besides a horde of hostile militias until three months ago when a shock defeat of Mogadishu warlords by Islamists ushered in a new era.

The strength of the Islamists and subsequent installation of the Union of Islamic Courts as the Supreme Court must have alarmed Ethiopia, which propagandists say has long wanted smooth access to the Indian Ocean through Somalia. One theory has it that Ethiopia’s erstwhile enemies, Eritrea, are backing the Islamists.

By seeking the removal of the Islamists administration and rooting for an AU-led peacekeeping force to back President Abdillahi Yusuf’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG), Ethiopia is not only protecting its interests, but also enlisting the services of both the AU and Igad to help it win its war with Eritrea over Somalia.

There are various other compelling reasons why Ethiopia’s involvement in Somalia should be suspect. With the backing of Ethiopia in 2002, the current president of the TFG, Mr Yusuf, who was then a warlord regained control of the breakaway Somali-region of Puntland by overthrowing Jama Ali Jama.

As this was happening, street battles broke out in Mogadishu as government forces clashed with collective militias, which were enjoying Ethiopia’s support. It is instructive to note that a week before the fighting broke out, some former Somali military officials had announced at a press conference in Mogadishu that they were being trained and armed by Ethiopia in its attempt to destabilise the TNG.

Despite the compelling history, Ethiopia has consistently denied involvement in Somalia’s internal politics. Any hope that President Yusuf’s government could, on its own, bring peace to the country has evaporated.

Today, many countries have tried to intervene in Somalia without any success. Eritrea is currently supporting the Islamists and the United States government was reported to be funding the Mogadishu warlords, before Islamists crushed them.

To a casual observer, Ethiopia’s involvement (for selfish aggrandisement) also seems to make a lot of sense.

However, it has made the struggle for control of Somalia look like a ping-pong game. The TNG says it’s in charge. The new Islamists rulers are also claiming a stake.

But as the verbal salvos continue, the question is: Who is to be believed: The Islamists, or the TNG that does not sound united and certainly looking like they are losing grip?

Zenawi was in Nairobi probably to push for the quick deployment of an AU troop in Somalia. He’ll probably hit the road to various other AU countries to lobby support for what has become his pet topic.

But before the AU and any country pushing to deploy its forces to the peacekeeping mission does so, it would be better to remind them to think again before taking on a mission that the world’s superpower, the US, could not sustain.

The US went to Somalia with sophisticated weaponry, including the then famous Black Hawks, but could not match the resilience and determination of the AK-47 wielding Somalis, forcing them to withdraw their troops from there in the early 1990s.

The question is whether the AU, which is still struggling with its peacekeeping mission in Darfur, Sudan because of lack of funds and logistical support can make it in Somalia, is still a question that people have to grapple with.

As the ping pong gets fiercer, one probably gets the feeling that there will soon be a bloodbath in Somalia should the AU continue and fall for Ethiopia’s tricks.

It’s not a question of the AU turning a blind eye to Somalia’s dilemma, but a matter of nobody wanting to lead Somalis anywhere but to darkness and death.

By Bernard Wamalwa
Source: Standard, Nairobi - Sept 2, 2006