Friday October 11, 2024
Leaders of the Red SEE Alliance: Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki.
Introduction
To preface, the author knows how to correctly spell the Red Sea. The term Red SEE is a double entendre that represents the three countries that form this alliance: Somalia, Egypt, Eritrea (SEE).
So, what has triggered this new strategic alliance between these countries? Water. Political spectators have long argued that tomorrow's wars will be fought over water, and tomorrow has arrived.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed began raising tensions in the Horn of Africa with dangerous rhetoric geared towards Eritrea. He addressed his parliament on October 13, 2023, stating that the Red Sea was Ethiopia's "natural frontier." It should be noted that Ethiopia is a landlocked nation that lost its Red Sea coast when Eritrea gained independence.
Abiy Ahmed continued his speech by stating that accessing the Red Sea was "existential" and that "we will fight." These points echoed earlier rhetoric he used with investors in July 2023, where he said he will "use force" if he was not given a port on the Red Sea. These comments raised eyebrows globally, and many believe that Ethiopia harbors ambitions to annex the Eritrean port city of Assab in the near future.
Furthermore, on January 1, 2024, Abiy Ahmed signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the so-called Republic of Somaliland – an unrecognized secessionist region within the Federal Republic of Somalia. The MOU would grant Ethiopia twenty kilometers of coastal land to build a navy in exchange for Ethiopia recognizing Somaliland as a sovereign state.
Moreover, Abiy Ahmed has been at loggerheads with Egyptian President El-Sisi over the Nile River. Ethiopia has begun the process of filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which will inevitably divert Egyptian Nile water resources. Last month, in a letter to the UN Security Council, Egypt accused Ethiopia of breaking international law by filling the dam without the consent of countries downstream.
As you can see, Ethiopia's Prime Minister is solely to blame for the rising tensions in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region.
Geopolitics of the Horn – Past and Present.
Somalia
Modern Egypt has traditionally been Somalia's main ally since it served on an advisory council for the United Nations Trust Territory of Somaliland (1950-1960). Founded in 1949, the advisory council guided Italy regarding the management of the Trust Territory. Its members were Egypt, Colombia, and the Philippines. Somalis viewed the Egyptian delegates favorably but thought the representatives from Colombia and the Philippines were aligned with Italian interests.
Egypt was the staunchest supporter of Somali independence, while Ethiopia vigorously lobbied world powers against it. In 1960, Egypt became the first country to properly arm the Somali National Army. When Ethiopia initiated an unjustified war against the nascent Somali state ("1964 Ethiopian–Somali Border War"), Egypt was the only nation that provided military aid to Somalia. Since Somalia's inception, Egypt has always afforded material support for an independent Somali state. Hence, why Somalis are ecstatic about the recent re-deepening of ties between the two nations.
Eritrea
The typical analyst believes that the Ethiopian-Eritrean War (1998-2000) was over a small border town called Badme. But the real reason Ethiopia launched a war against Eritrea was over the Nakfa – Eritrea's currency.
Prior to Eritrea's independence, Ethiopia operated the Assab and Massawa seaports. After a few years of independence, Eritrea implemented a policy of exclusively accepting hard currency for access to seaports. Ethiopia demanded that it pay its seaport fees in its own currency, the Birr, which Eritrea refused. After this refusal, Ethiopia launched a vicious war against Eritrea. This war is considered to be one of the deadliest wars in modern African history.
Fast forward to today, and Abiy Ahmed has signaled his desire to launch another war against Eritrea to gain access to the Red Sea. Specifically, Ethiopia has hinted at annexing the seaport of Assab by integrating it into the Afar Region – one of Ethiopia's twelve federal states.
The Red SEE Alliance
The Horn of today is not the same Horn of yesteryear. Ethiopia is no longer considered an anchor state, but rather is a pariah state causing trouble throughout the region. 2024 is the first year that two Horn countries will be aligned to thwart Ethiopia's aggression. In 1991, Somalia became a failed state when Eritrea became a nation. This made the Horn of Africa's geopolitics from 1991-2024 exceedingly beneficial for Ethiopia, but that imbalance has ended.
Abiy Ahmed is the Vladimir Putin of the Horn because he seeks to redraw international borders through war (i.e. South Ossetia, Donetsk, Crimea, and eastern Ukraine). The nations of Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea have made the pragmatic move to align their mutual strategic interests against their warmongering neighbor.
The October 10 Tripartite Summit in Asmara produced notable policies. First, the SEE nations affirmed support for Somalia's unity, independence, integrity, and sovereignty over all its territories. Second, they agreed to deepen cooperation and enhance Somalia's military capabilities so the Somali state can confront all threats. Lastly, they highlighted Somalia's exclusive sovereign right to determine the composition of contributing nations for AUSSOM – the successor AU mission for Somalia to commence on January 1, 2025.
Egypt and Eritrea are believed to become AUSSOM contributing nations, while Ethiopia will not. Abiy Ahmed is not a rational international actor and may implicitly declare war by illegally keeping his army in Somalia. Ethiopia has never respected Somalia's sovereignty, which may trigger a regional conflict. While Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea seek peace in the region and adherence to international law, Ethiopia's continued transgressions will ignite the "Great Interstate African War."
Aman Obsiye is an attorney based in Minneapolis, MN. He received his Juris Doctor and Master of Public Policy degrees from the University of Minnesota.