By Ahmed M. Roble Thursday April 21, 2022
Thursday April 21, 2022
Somalia’s
Federal Electoral Implementation Team (FEIT) announced that 294+ members of the
parliament are certified MPs from both lower and upper houses. On 14th
April a swearing ceremony was done for these parliamentarians in the presence
of Prime Minister Roble who was responsible for the electioneering processes of
the past 1 year. The PM’s main target is to securely complete the election of
the 2022 which’ll bring peaceful power transfer in the country.
After the swearing ceremony
will be followed by critical milestones such as the election of the Speaker marked
by 27th April which will lead the country to witness the voting for
its 10th president. More than 30 men and woman have declared
their candidacy to leading this fragile state, but very fewer than that stand a
realistic chance to becoming the 10th president of the Federal
Republic of Somalia.
The 2022 elections are delayed frequently and
produced certain outstanding differences which was resolved through dialogue
and compromise from all stakeholders to attain swift conclusion of the
electoral process. There are numerous candidates
who are vying for the position and the upcoming leadership will come with incomplete
projects including a looming famine, debt relief program risk, a successionist
enclave, transition of ATMIS by 2024, and post-Farmaajo reconstruction of a
polarized society.
Various heavyweight candidates are running including
the yet to announce incumbent president who has a lot of support to only pass-over
to second round but, history tells us that once a president’s term ends, a
second term is impossible. In this race, the below 5 candidates are expected to
unseat the incumbent and lead a polarized and dire society. These 5 candidates
are campaigning with huge impact to embark a winning strategy to leading
Somalia after election victory.
Their political programs for the country as usual
are not very much solid such as the question of security, economy, governance, political
reconciliation, corruption, geopolitics, and foreign policy. Although the
awaited challenges are pretty much written in the wall, yet the lack of
political manifesto discourages the aspired change for this country. These key election issues are how to revive the Somali
state at a time with intense need of political change for the country and the
below candidates are with a mission to bring about that change.
1.
Dahir
Mohamoud Gelle
A Scholar, diplomat, politician with plenty
of public and private experience is one of the most aspirants to win in this
election. Mr. Gelle’s political program is precise with four key pillars that
safeguards the national interest of Somalia. The program first focuses on the
security and political front which proposes eradication of terror groups and
ultimately offering a handful of negotiation to neutralize them, establishing a
political reconciliation within a perfect federalization and shrewd foreign
policy bonded by a national interest. This new face’s campaign strategy, public
opinion of his principles and astute resume makes him a forefront in winning
this fiercely contested election.
2.
Saeed
Abdullahi Deni
A former minister of
planning, leader of Puntland, and a ferocious opposition to the incumbent has established
a great deal of campaign within Puntland and its best ally, Jubbaland. As
quoted, Mr. Deni’s main program is to unseat the current president which is
inevitable and a huge milestone to attain at the election day. His political
manifesto will not be different than the policies adopted during the presidency
at Puntland state of Somalia. Certain accomplishments worthy of noting are the implementation
of elections in three districts which was a key milestone for the
democratization project of the state and the country as well. Critics claim
that Mr. Deni’s term in Puntland is yet to end which’ll need for him to resign
at first before contesting and a lack of vision of harmony in leading Puntland not
to mention Somalia.
3.
Shariif
Sheikh Ahmed
A Cleric, ICU leader, and former president is
running 3rd time in distinct context and dynamism. Mr. Sharif’s era
was far worse than this and came with limited resources adversary to settle the
nation’s affairs. Sharif’s legacy though
very poor makes him a reputable candidate after witnessing a devastating convergence
of ineffective administration and dismal performance on the country’s key
priority developments of security and economic recovery. This third time, Mr.
Sharif’s candidature serves as a do or die moment which makes him strong contender
for the top job.
4.
Hassan
Sheikh Mohamoud
Academic, civil society member, and Former
president is yet to rest and his second time race for the post comes at a time
of severe uncertainty. Mr. Hassan’s 2012 reign came with a time of ending a
transition governance era for Somalia which made his legacy of reform an
astounding yet criticized by other. It is without a witness that his leadership
style of compromise and negotiation will give him a leverage over others. His
campaign pillar which is bonded with his inner circle/group and SIMAD
university alumni’s and scholars will create a cult/movement style of
government which is a serious challenge for a country to have a cooperative
culture and unity. A rampant corruption, soiling culture of polarization, and group-thinking
are the main obstacles to choose him over a candidate whose office is served
and open to all Somalis.
5.
Hassan
Ali Khaire
A Somali activist, former refugee to Norway,
manager, and the former Prime Minister of Somalia is one of the strong
contenders for the position of presidency. Mr. Khaire’s
analysis is folded and converged with the incumbent which makes him hard to
examine. During his 3 years tenure as PM of Somalia, all his accomplishments
was a directive by the incumbent and its performance rating will be a group one
shared by his president. His political
muscle was tested earlier after losing the vote of confidence in the parliament
within 7 minutes. As a newcomer, Mr. Khaire is making sound campaign in
Mogadishu and whether that is a fog or not will be seen on the forthcoming election
day.
Finally, Somalia is likely to have a speaker
of parliament by the next Wednesday, 27th April 2022 and after that
an election date will be set for the presidential race. This presidential race
will not be different than the earlier ones as there are no laws to
decentralize and perfect elections after every while. The factors of lobbying,
vote buying, external influences and public desire will be hugely felted and if
lucky, Somalia will witness an election that’ll produce the leadership it
deserves. Considering, the current condition in Somalia, it is with our
supplication that we hope for this election to produces a leadership with
subject-matter and context conscious to gradually push our conditions for the
better during the upcoming 4 years with glance back at the faults of predecessors and try to drive a lesson in
correcting all the wrongdoings whilst avoiding a repeated strategic, policy
mistakes done in the past.
Ahmed M. Roble
The writer holds MBA and pursuing M.A in Peace, Governance and
Development at University for Peace.