by Muuse Yuusuf
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
It was just few months back when “Islamist” forces of Al-Shabaab and Xisbul Islam were being portrayed as a united force capable of dislodging the feeble transitional unity government from Mogadishu. At the time around May-June their leaders seemed to be united under the banner of a holy war against what they described as occupying forces of AMISOM and an infidel and stooge government that was imposed by the west. Analysts mistakenly believed that the combined forces of “Islamists” would soon overthrow the government and then would take control of the south to impose their strict Sharia law in Somalia.
Remember those days when Mogadishu residents were terrorised by indiscriminate shelling and were forcibly displaced from their homes by the warring factions? Remember the suicide bombing in Beletweyne that killed Omar Hashi, minister of security? Remember the frantic calls by the speaker of the parliament for an urgent international regional military intervention within 24 in order to bolster the government?
Well I am sure my readers don’t suffer from amnesia and are able to remember of the events that had happened in the second quarter of this year. But the point here is that how at the time the media seemed to lump together “Islamists” as a one formidable and undividable force that was united under one ideology, and had one common enemy, namely TFG/AMISOM. That description was a typical characterisation by the media of social movements in a tribal society as Somalia where social movements are so divided that one could hardly describe them as a one united organic force.
As we now know “Islamists” have failed their first mission, after the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces, which was to topple the government in order to derail the peace and reconciliation process and also to expel the AMISOM contingent from capital. Although their combined forces, coming from remote places as Kismayo, were put together in order to defeat the enemy, they were proven wrong and the government stayed put and survived the coup. Also, other Islamist forces “Ahlusuna Wal Jama” have successfully defended central regions from Mudug to Galgaduud.
With that failed mission, “Islamist” forces had spent most of their energy and meagre resources. In other words, power, vigour, enthusiasm, and resources allocated to their “Jihadist” agenda had been exhausted. It is now obvious from open sources that these forces are divided, weaker and don’t have enough resources (money); also, public support is waning due to their draconian laws, which seem to alienate people. The question now is how and where to get resources? Exploit traditional clan allegiance and loyalty? Well if that is the case then their “Islamic cause” will be thrown out of the window and their real identities will be revealed.
Another important fact that came out of the conflict is that once they have failed their mission, it was not long before it became clear that these “Islamist” forces did not have or share a rock-solid ideological base that could unite them forever. Once they did not succeed in destroying their enemy, they turned their guns against each other. The question is; what has happened to the “Islamist/Jihadist” rhetoric that was their banner? It seems that concept is now dead and irrelevant.
Few months, not years, were enough to reveal the fragility of their “unity” under one “ideology” if any.
Is astonishing to see how friends who, just few months back, used to call each other fellow Muslims who were united under “Jihad” against invaders are not only now split up among themselves but now accuse each other of being heretic, infidel and anti-Islamic. One wonders if the Islamic doctrine cannot unite these forces what else on earth can unite them!!
The friction and hostility within “Islamist” forces became public knowledge when Al-Shabab and Xisbul Islam fought over the control of the strategic town of Kismayo. One of the contended issues was who gets what and how much with regard to millions of dollars generated from the sea port. Also, the divisive clan politics is simmering and boiling up underneath and is out there to undermine "Islamists" efforts to represent Islam as a unifying and common denominator. Despite “agreements” to stop hostilities, as you read this article tension remains high in some parts of that region. There was actually fighting in Xagar in the lower Jubba region.
The leader of Xisbul Islam was forced to beg Al-Shabab to halt the hostilities. He sounded like someone who was desperate and begging for mercy! The AU spokesman found that request ironic as he could not understand why a similar offer of truce and ceasefire could not have been offered to members of the current government, fellow Muslims. What an irony! Furthermore, it has been reported that some militias and officers have deserted from “Islamists” and have joined the government. In addition there is a rift within Xisbul Islam which is now wide open for exploitation. The government could use this window of opportunity to garner public support and defeat its opponents, but the question is what vision does the government – which itself also divided into faction - can offer to Somalis?
Only time can tell!
Muuse Yuusuf
[email protected]