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by Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
Monday, January 26, 2009
I would be excused I presume, if I fail to point out with accuracy whether the forth coming enlarged TNG Djibouti one is the 12th or the 13th as I witnessed so many of them which all ended up, without exception, in a quick cot death. It is apparent that the Sharif party (ARS Djibouti Faction) dissolved itself willingly by signing the infamous agreement with the TNG and hence is a full member of the new TNG, albeit much weaker then it is predecessor. After killing countless innocent civilians and displacing so many, it is no surreptitious that the TNG control is restricted to few houses in Mogadishu and literally their own offices in Baidabo which will certainly fall into the domain of Al Shabab and its Islamist allies as soon as the last Ethiopian convoy leaves the town. I am sure Baidao people will join the serenity other regions were enjoying for the first time in two years. The Sheikh Sharif(ARS Djibouti faction) choose without any coercion to go in to power sharing agreement with an already dead TNG who failed both politically, morally and militarily and who in the first place had no legitimacy in the eyes of the people.
Brief dialogue with the conscience of Sheikh Sharif
The ARS’s, which you were the chairman, goal was nothing less then the total liberation of Somalia from the despicable TNG and its stooges and by God’s grace ARS succeeded after two years of relentless struggle. Amazing! Is your unilateral decision to split the party when the goal is within a reach by curving out what named itself as ARS Djibouti faction which is an act of treason and slap on the face of those who paid heavy price during the war of liberation and hence is a prelude to the commencement of an avoidable new prolonged civil war. The ARS – Asmara and its affiliated groups who control the bulk of the country made their position clear - that they will neither negotiate with the TNG nor allow the invading foreign army to sleep in peace.
The sheikh also appears to have forgotten that the TNG is a bouquet made of warlords trained as blood hounds by the Ethiopian military intelligence and latter hammered into TNG to further the interest of their master. TNG was the creation of IGAD with Ethiopia at its helm and has the interest of Ethiopia and Kenya at its heart and for that matter nothing of substance was in for the Somalis because of the fact that the Somalis have no representation in the board room. The Sheikh seems to have forgotten his perseverance that foreign troops has to leave as they are for the protection of the TNG – I believe their mandate was neither for peace keeping nor for peace enforcement but sort of mercenary army paid by the CIA Djibouti station on behalf of the so called TNG as the AU has no resources to sustain a contingent of that size for two years.
The Sheikh seems to have forgotten that TNG is the same one who had given licence to the Americans to bomb him and his companions from the air and the Ethiopians on the ground even after they vacated Mogadishu and running for their lives in the Jungles of Kismayo region. If all of the above are inconsequential to ring a single bell in the complex mind of the Sharif, then what about the one and half million people; who were made Internally displaced people (IDPS) and the hundreds of thousands slaughtered by the Ethiopian artillery and bayonet even when we sweep under the carpet the destruction to the capital city ?.
The Sharif mysteriously have fallen in love with the same men who were harassing, maiming, torturing and selling the community notables for profit without remorse for the last two decades and to add an insult to injury sold his soul and career for the sake of exorcising a heavily possessed beings .
Political Mistake that united enemies
The Djibouti TNG which is in the making has excelled its predecessors as its death is some what instantaneous because it passed away while it is still on the drawing board and it succeeded to equally confuse all of it’s would be stake holders as no party(Somalis, Ethiopia, Kenya and the likes) can see it’s interest addressed. The Djibouti TNG is some what bankrupt of realistic political agenda that can bring a semblance of comfort to a nation yearning for peace and reconciliation or for the same token neighbours nervous about a possible spill over of ideologies they perceive as destabilizing.
The Al – Shabab and its affiliated Islamist groups are in full control of the bulk of Southern Somalia including I hope shortly Baidao, which is the seat of the TNG ,and also has a growing number of sympathisers in Puntland and Somali Land as their ideology straddles across the regressive clan politics. The Islamic courts led by the real ARS – Asmara faction, Somaliland and Puntland are in mutual agreement, in the short term, in negating the recognition of the Djibouti TNG and like most of the Somalis I am wondering if they will get a plane to bring them back to Mogadishu as securing a landing right in Mogadishu Airport will soon be beyond the capabilities of the Ugandan TNG military police as the Islamic court fighters are in the midst of training their air defence cadres.
Ethiopia and Kenya are surprisingly disappointed too with the TNG Djibouti because their interest of securing stable but weak and fragmented federal state of Somalia is beyond reach and what took its place is fluid in a plastic which is constantly changing shape. This native resistance religious groups which are gaining the hearts and minds of the people by the hour is a new phenomenon that they admittedly have no arsenal to fight with. With a new administration now in the oval office; Ethiopia, Kenya and the CIA station in Djibouti are very much worried that AL- Shabab might consolidate its grip in Southern Somalia before they learn the new language of president Obama who unlike Bush is believed to be more prudent when it comes to military adventurism and labelling countries as terrorists – the golden currency of the bygone Bush era.
One Way ticket to hell
Some of the so called TNG – Djibouti lead by the Sharif will ultimately take the risk of returning to Mogadishu to start beating the old age tribal drums but I am afraid this might not work this time. The Sharif and his party already played that card when they accepted that parliamentary seats should be apportioned according to the 4.5 formula. There are no shortages of able bodies who were not accommodated by the formula and who are eager to join the Al- Shabab just to take revenge and settle scores with the TNG who selected their foes although they hail from the same tribe. It is common knowledge that major clans of Mogadishu and others already showed their displeasure with Djibouti TNG out come and some publicly declared that they are with the resistance.
Transitional government must earn legitimacy first and for most from its people and only then it is open to international recognition not vice versa. The reality on the ground is that Islamic Courts led by Al –Shabab control most of the southern and central Somalia, Puntland controls North East and Somaliland controls North West – then where does the TNG controls and who it represents? I think the Sharif will start some sort of civil war in Mogadishu which might not live long because the tribalism is becoming obsolete in the face of Al-Shabab as it is demonstrated in the regions they govern. I am sure the Sharif will have no choice but to accept defeat and leave the country or end up as a warlord working for Ethiopia which I believe he can because it is said “once a liar is always a liar”.
The Somali people and the Islamic courts led by the real ARS Asmara deserve a genuine apology from the so called TNG - Djibouti before they go into exile or disband themselves peacefully as this current effort to revive the TNG seems laughable because the content of the Djibouti summit seems inadequate to respond to the challenges posed by the ever increasing changes on the ground.
Abdikarim H. Abdi Buh
Email: [email protected]