Danger on the Horizon: Preventing Lawlessness in the Advent of Ethiopian Withdrawal

E D I T O R I A L
Hiiraan Online
Friday, January 02, 2009

With the abrupt departure of former President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed from the national scene, the calculated decision of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to withdraw his occupation forces by the first week of 2009 (without the necessary AU or UN forces to replace them) and the multitude of armed factions mushrooming all over the country, Somalia once again is entering into a more pronounced dangerous period. It is a period, unless critical steps are taken, the Djibouti peace pact between the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia and its newly found partner the Alliance for the Restoration of Somalia (ARS) may be tested if not completely undermined.

It was only 19 years ago, in January 1991 when the jubilant forces of the USC opposition groups victoriously marched on to Mogadishu effectively driving former dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and his government out of power and without any strategic vision beyond capturing the capital city—thus creating opportunity for chaos, lawlessness and the refueling of age old ethnic rivalries that in short period propelled itself into an all out civil war. With the ensuing madness and anarchy for the following 19 years and after the death of hundreds of thousands of innocent lives and the destruction of valuable national resources and infrastructure, Somalia is yet to emerge and regain its status as a sovereign state at peace with itself and its neighbors.

What does January 2009 has in common with January 1991 one may ask?

The fear that many Somali nationalists and international observers ponder at this critical juncture is that unless the transition period is carefully choreographed - especially the departure of the Ethiopian troops and their immediate if not instant replacement by well organized local forces - history may unavoidably repeat itself once again! In the eyes of many war-weary Somalis, a new and more intense danger looms large over Somalia during this transition more so than anytime during the civil war. This is because with the imminent departure of the Ethiopian forces and the absence of international peace keeping forces or agreed-upon security arrangement among the Somalis, armed groups of Somalia who do not share mutual respect and a common national agenda as well as lack proper military training and the ethics of warfare may turn their guns to each other and to the Somali people. To avoid this probable clash of the warring militias, the TFG and the Alliance as well as other armed groups must create a predetermined and publicly announced understanding acknowledging roles of the different militia groups, rules of engagement and responsibilities in maintaining law and order thus protecting civilians, national institutions and infrastructure from lawless elements within society.

Once the veil of occupation is removed, many fear that a typically short-lived joy and exuberance on the part of the victors and their supportive masses may pave the way for the return of lawlessness, anarchy and a return to warlordism and clan fiefdoms.

What a better argument for occupation, one might say, by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to showcase to the world the effect of his forces in keeping Somalia together, than to demonstrate footage of a chaotic Mogadishu under siege from gun fire between warring factions and a return to impulsive looting by credulous and poverty stricken Somalis in places such as Villa Somalia, Bakaaraha market and other public centers vacated by the Ethiopian forces!

While the transition teams of Prime Minister Nur Adde of the TFG and Sheikh Sharif of the ARS are somewhat blindly consumed by the politics of power sharing and the engineering of over 500 member new parliament similar in size only to that of populous India, there is no publicly stated clear agenda of a political and security arrangement during the transition between the TFG, ARS Djibouti, ARS Asmara, Shabaab and other factions on how to maintain law and order once the Ethiopians pack their bags and leave. Little is known on who will control the Airport, Sea ports, Villa Somalia, the seat of the parliament in Baidoa and other important national institutions and infrastructures.

What an opportune time for the spoilers of the peace process to lay claim on neighborhoods, public facilities and to establish clan based and sectarian militia’s in the name of protecting communities or waging a misplaced Muslim on Muslim so-called Jihad!

Worse yet, will the international community ensure Ethiopian commanders to follow a prearranged departure timetable on vacating areas—thus allowing the imminent replacement of local forces? Or will Prime Minister Zenawi hope to see Somalia slide back into anarchy as proof to the international community—arguing that after all it was the Ethiopian forces that were maintaining law and order for the past two years and left to their own devices Somalis only know how to kill, loot and maim each other.

Strategies for a successful and orderly transition:

The Somali people through their national political forces, elders, religious leaders and activists, must acknowledge that it is their responsibility to put their house in order and the international community is only there to help them. The sooner the Somali leadership understands this, the better.

The international community under the leadership of Ambassador Ahmadou Ould Abadallah has thus far successfully engineered the Djibouti peace process and must continue its implementation without delay. Mr. Abdallah needs to be mindful of the many spoilers inside and outside of the government and the opposition groups whose alliances change depending on their mood at that particular occasion. The international community must insist on all parties including Ethiopia to meet their obligations under the agreement.

Interim TFG President Aden Mohamed Nur “Madobe” and Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein must reassure the Somali people and communicate with them directly explaining what it is that they are trying to achieve. They must highlight the value of citizenship and should work very hard to earn the respect of the society they want to serve. Leadership in Somalia should not continue to be condescending, authoritative and outright abusive to the masses. These politicians must acknowledge the hardships and inhumane conditions that befell on the Somali society for the past two decades.

The leaders of ARS must transform themselves into national figures with the capacity to govern and must commit to the fulfillment of the Djibouti peace process. They must demand from Ambassador Abadallah and the international community that Ethiopian forces should leave under a predetermined timetable allowing the TFG-ARS security commission time to strategize on effective replacements, while maintaining law and order throughout the country. They must be mindful of what will happen after the Ethiopians leave and not let the hubris of their victory over the Ethiopian occupation forces shortchange their success thus blinding them of the potential homegrown pandemonium that may be in store for them and for Somalia.

Finally, when the Ethiopians depart from Somalia (and we hope this will be by the time we post this editorial piece), the Asmara based wing of the Alliance, Al Shabaab and other armed groups must NOT wage war against the Somali people. There is not excuse for shedding Somali blood. Whosoever wants political power - which is what many knowingly or unknowingly are indeed fighting for - they should seek such a mandate from the Somali people. Lording over citizens through the barrel of the gun had not worked for Siyad Barre, Meles Zenawi, Abdullahi Yusuf, Saddam Hussein, Mogadishu warlords and other dictators of the world- and it would NOT work for all wings of the ARS, the TFG, Al- Shabaab or any one group far that matter.

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