Policy Options for African Leaders and Negotiators
by Mohamed Shamun Omar
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
As African leaders shepherd to Copenhagen to attend the 15th Conference of the Parties (COP 15) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, they will be facing an international climate negotiations that have been largely framed along the lines of emissions cap and growth of the industrialized North versus Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC), a new economic block that Goldman Sachs research paper reported to has the economic potential to be larger than the former G6 in US dollar terms by 2050. This raises two challenges for African negotiators. First, what would be an effective approach to reframe the climate debate with Africa in the mix? Secondly, what policy options and instruments are available to African negotiators in Copenhagen? Answering both these questions will strengthen Africa’s position in Copenhagen, and its capacity to adapt to climate change and potentially develop green economy.
Some African leaders have been sounding bold lately in reshaping the debate, while others are more conciliatory. The Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Mr. Meles Zenawi, who is leading group of African nations to the COP 15 in a keynote address to the special session of the African Partnership Forum (APF), hosted by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) this past September in Addis Ababa said, “We will use our numbers to delegitimize any agreement that is not consistent with our minimal position,” further adding: “If need be, we are prepared to walk out of any negotiation that threatens to be another rape of our continent.” Kenya's Prime Minister, Raila Odinga sounded more conciliatory in an interview with AFP by saying "we really should not go to Copenhagen and play the hard ball and the blame game. This issue is so crucial that it requires full cooperation because if the North does not cooperate with the South it means all of us are going to be victims. All of us are going to be losers."
African leaders need to refrain from rhetoric impulses and subjection, and reframe the climate debate with solid arguments informed by science and economic rationale coupled with forming political alliances. African negotiators in Copenhagen should use widely available and accepted scientific evidences that show clear correlation between African climate change and grave human and environmental consequences. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in London reported this past October that Africa is very likely to get warmer and drier with the probability of more intense tropical cyclones, higher sea levels, more storm surges, and in general, more climatic variation and extreme weather events.
These predicted ecological shocks will have major devastation in Africa, both in terms of human capital and the environment. One does not need to look further back into history to see the impact of climate variation in Africa. The Maasai history at the end f 19th century, a period termed as “Emutai” meaning the wipe out is a case in point. Researchers at Tsavo National Park in Kenya including Dr. Lindsey Gillson uncovered evidence of large scale, but infrequent ecological disturbances that coincide with the “Emutai.” The plight of this period has been documented in part by Oscar Baumann, the Austrian explorer and cartographer who traveled widely in Africa, and was later appointed Consular General to Zanzibar by the Austro-Hungarian Government in 1896. Baumann painted a chilling picture of the destructions caused by the environmental disaster. He wrote in his book, Durch Massailand zur Nilquelle (Through the lands of the Maasai to the source of the Nile), “There were women wasted to skeletons from whose eyes the madness of starvation glared ... warriors scarcely able to crawl on all fours, and apathetic, languishing elders. Swarms of vultures followed them from high, awaiting their certain victims."
Political alliances and true understanding of climate change response policy options will be the strategy in Copenhagen, and unless African negotiators are savvy in this art, it might be a missed opportunity for Africa. Jockeying positions and forming alliance is already in high gear, small band of islands led by President Mohamed Nasheed of Maldives (one of the lowest laying countries in the world) are bonding together en-route to Copenhagen advocating a common climate mitigation response. African negotiators need to define their issues, desired outcomes, and find similar groups to form an interest block if they want to alter the negotiation landscape.
So, what climate change response policy should African negotiators advocate for in Copenhagen? Given the nature and the challenge of the issue along with the eco-diversity of Africa, there might not be a “one size fit all” solution for the entire continent. However, there might be a couple of policy instruments worth noting that African negotiators could carry in their negotiation tool box; namely:
- Mitigation First. It is essential that African leaders bind together in advocating for arresting the climate change activities that are already underway. Both the North and BRIC should commit to a mandatory and quantifiable emissions cap. There is less likelihood that Copenhagen will produce such an outcome, but there are other venues of reaching such a goal. Researchers at the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements led by Robert Stavins proposed an approach that has the potential for a meaningful outcome in Copenhagen. Mr. Stavins’ approach calls for a “Portfolio of Domestic Commitments Approach” where member countries agree to conform to climate change mitigation dictated by their domestic laws and regulations in the absence of global agreement.
- Capacity Building. True understanding of climate change impact and how we should respond is not an easy task by itself. Given Africa’s low capacity to adopt to this issue in terms of human capital and practical tools, African negotiators need to stress the need for institutional capacity building based on local needs.
- Enhanced Adaptation. Climate change is a reality and here to stay for the foreseeable future. All indications for Africa are increased draught, decreased areas suitable for agriculture, civil conflicts dictated by the climate change, rise of sea level and potential flooding of coastal areas. With this itinerary of a bleak picture, African negotiators should negotiate outcomes that improve Africa’s ability to adapt based on strategies that depend on existing African strength.
- Green Economy. It is true that every challenge presents an opportunity, climate change is no exception. Transition to green economy does not only address climate change, but diversifies African economy, creates jobs, and invests in human capital just to name a few. African negotiators in Copenhagen need to be vocal about large scale clean technology transfer.
Africa will be stricken first and hardest by climate change, its leaders and negotiators in Copenhagen should be bold, and innovative in making the case for the road to climate change response must pass through Africa.
The author is associated with Harvard University and University of Massachusetts Lowell where he works and researches on environmental, health and safety issues. The author is also appointed Commissioner with City of Lowell Green Building Commission.