Hiiraan Online

Ethiopian leaders, probably irritated by the media reports of Somali opposition protesting over its participation in Djibouti talks, decided to terminate the process. They wanted to show one more time that Ethiopia is the most powerful stakeholder in the Somali affairs. In his September 2008 strategy paper for Somalia, Prof Ken Mackenhause pointed out that “the problem for Somalia is that Ethiopia is simultaneously the single most important  external actor, yet its motives, interests, strategies and intentions are the most difficult to understand and predict…Ethiopia’s future policies thus constitute the key “wild card” in the Somali crisis.”

To achieve its objective, Ethiopia took few steps. First, it exacerbated the persistent squabbles that have existed among TFI Leaders since its inception in 2004. Second, the Somali leaders were summoned to Addis Ababa at a time when the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the Faction of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS-D) have been conducting “critical talks” for peace and reconciliation in Djibouti under United Nations mediation.

IGAD, a cover up arm of Ethiopia, provided the letterhead for formalizing the agreement drafted by Ethiopia. AU signed as a witness. So, IGAD became duly committed to lead the new process under the Ethiopian chairmanship. As a result, the upcoming extraordinary meeting of IGAD in Nairobi, Kenya will mark the transition from Djibouti to Addis Ababa and will produce false slogans and impracticable actions. Similar extraordinary theatrical event took place immediately after Ethiopia invaded Somalia. Only Ethiopia knows the sequels of its plot.

For sure, any process led by IGAD under the Ethiopian leadership forebodes more destruction and human catastrophe for the Somali people. IGAD, a dysfunctional organization, whose members are failed states, cannot reasonably bring peace and stability in Somalia. AU and IGAD have been supporting the war crimes actions and human rights violations perpetrated by the forces of Ethiopia, AMISOM and TFG against Somali civilians.

Residents of Mogadishu have been deliberately driven out from their homes under the policy of “emptying the Capital” and are terribly suffering the merciless daily indiscriminate killings and lootings with impunity for almost two years. People are arbitrarily arrested and held indefinitely or disappear. However, the sentiment and goal of the majority of the Somali people is to re-liberate Somalia by ending the Ethiopian occupation and to re-establish a democratic Somali State.

 It was disturbing to watch the degrading treatment the sequestered “Leaders of Somalia” were subjected to in Addis Ababa where they have been vilified and accused for failing to fulfill their responsibilities.  Ethiopian leaders seem determined to denigrate the nationalist spirit, dignity, independence and unity of the Somalis. In an interview with Newsweek in April 10, 2008, PM Meles said “An oversupply of national sentiment is not the problem in Somalia. The problem in Somalia is a lack of it. The problem in Somalia is an oversupply of sub-sub-clannish attitude. ..” In March 11, 2008 testimony, Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary of State said “This [Ethiopia] is a talented people destined by dint of population, location and energy to play a prominent leadership role on the continent [Africa] for a long time to come.” Therefore, the submissive attitude of TFI leaders gave credibility to the above observations. 

A brief analysis of the agreement reveals the following important points.

The Addis Ababa agreement has brought the Somali dossier back under the control of Ethiopia/IGAD/AU and foiled UN efforts.  Despite settling the dispute between the President and the Prime Minister over governance issues, the core message of the agreement is to remind the Somalis and the international community that Ethiopia is the “sole decider” of Somalia’s future.

The agreement outlined the political agenda of the TFG until end of November or December 2008 without due consideration to expected power sharing between opposing parties and political change. The agenda includes the establishment of Benadir Administration, finalization of regional and state administrations, expeditious completion of the works of the constitution commission, enactment of electoral and party laws, national census and other means. The agreement also called the international community to put pressures including sanctions against all those who legitimately criticize and reject the Djibouti agreement which de-legitimized the struggle for the Re-Liberation of Somalia.

The agreement recognized that TFG security forces are rogue elements because of the lack of clear command and control structures after 4 years of massive civilian massacre and human rights violations. It is agreed that reorganized security forces and Benadir Administration will undertake disarmament and stabilization mission in the capital because TFG imposes itself on South and Central Somalia by force with the use of foreign forces.

Matters related to the redeployment and withdrawal of Ethiopian troops contingent with a clean action plan, to stabilization activities and capacity building, have been delegated to be discussed and agreed upon between appropriate departments of TFG and Ethiopia government. Leaders of the opposition forces like ARS-D should accept the political agenda of Ethiopia and visit Addis Ababa so that their forces can be part of the reorganized security forces of TFG. In plain language, Ethiopia refuses to accept the preposition that Somalis have the right to decide their own future among themselves.

The Addis Ababa agreement characterized the Djibouti “talks or engagement” promoted by the UN Security Council as a process initiated by the Special Representative for Somalia of the UN Secretary General. It completely turned upside down the proposed UN Secretary General comprehensive integrated plan for peace and stability in Somalia.

Lastly, the parties of Addis Ababa agreement appealed to the international community to support it through technical, financial, political support and others means in competition with Djibouti process. The latter remains an appendix to the former.

The above analysis shows that Addis Ababa agreement superseded Djibouti talks and initiates new process under IGAD-Ethiopia control. The Somali crisis needs “trusted mediator” with ability to mobilize substantial international support for successful implementation of a peace plan.

Ethiopia which is now under international criticism for human rights violations and oppressive laws on civil society organizations cannot play such role. Maybe, its efforts are tuned to complicate further the Somali situation before the current US Administration leaves office.

The will of the Somali people will prevail sooner or later.

Chair

Arta Center for Governance and Development

[email protected]