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HIIRAAN ONLINE
E D I T O R I A L
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
In the past two weeks, influential actors in the Somali conflict took a number of positive steps toward peace. The Parliament of the Transitional Federal Government endorsed the June 9 Djibouti peace agreement between the TFG and the Alliance. Two factions of the Union of Islamic Courts – ICU (the most powerful group within the Alliance) also held this week a separate reconciliation meeting in Sana, Yemen. Their objective was to address the fracture within the ICU; preliminary reports indicate that they made some progress.
The Central Committee members of the Alliance of the Re-libation of Somalia (ARS) are also holding a general meeting in Djibouti. They also gave their stamp of approval to the TFG-ARS peace accord. According to Suleyman Olad Roble, the Information Secretary of the ARS, the Alliance voted overwhelmingly for the pace proposal (106 members out of the 191 members of the Central Committee). In this Wednesday (July 23), Somali delegations, from the TFG and the Alliance, are reportedly addressing the UN Security Council, another unprecedented development that indicates new UN creativity, impartiality and spirited interest to end the Somalia crisis.
In spite of these encouraging developments, the situation in the ground is far from improving. Fighting between the TFG and the assorted opposition groups including ARS and Al-Shabaab have intensified, so are the suffering and displacement of the innocents, including aid-workers who have become the target of deadly assassinations and abductions.
The Asmara-based faction of the Union of Islamic Counrts (UIC) has already begun accusing their UIC counterpart to have broken the understanding of the two sides made in Sana’a. The Central Committee gathering of the Alliance in Djibouti reveals that the majority of the Central Committee members are supportive of the pro-peace stance of the two top leaders of the Alliance - Sheikh Sharrif Sheikh Ahmed and Sharif Hassan Shiekh Aden. The Asmara based members of the Alliance is reportedly mulling over to make the rapture of the Alliance a permanent one and part ways with their comrades, as the ultra-hardliners, Al-Shabab opted year and half ago. Such a move will definitely complicate the Somalia crises and Hiiraan Online cautions against it.
Eritrea, the chief military and financial sponsor of the insurgency, feels jilted by the top leadership of the Alliance who abruptly relocated their headquarters from Asmara to Djibouti and publicly denounced the Eritrean leaders for meddling. There is no doubt that the Alliance members in Asmara are actively or passively pressured by their host country - in spite of genuine policy preferences and considered objections to the proposed peace deal.
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| Online Voteing by Hiiraan Online. Somalis overwhelmingly (70%)support UN mediated peace process. |
Nations and their leaders always go after their national interest (of course Somalis are the many times the exception). It is the national interest of Eritrea that Ethiopia is mired in Somalia for years, if not decades because, if Ethiopian troops leave Somalia, these battle-hardened soldiers will head straight to the Ethiopian / Eritrean border. Something Eritrea would not want. It is the national interest of Somalia that Ethiopia withdraws its forces from Somalia. This is the reason the majority of the Somalis welcome the UN mediated efforts, which call Ethiopia to pull out from Somalia within four months.
The reason Somalia remained a failed state for almost two decades is not lack of trying on the part of the international community but because of external actor persuading dependent client to play the role of spoiler, wittingly or unwittingly. The phrase looma dhamma (it ain’t over yet!) was the only contribution by foreign-manipulated warlords to Somali lexicon.
We do not doubt the patriotic credentials of Shikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, General Jama Mohamed Ghalib, Ambassador Ahmed Abdi Hashi (Hashara), Zakaria Mohamud Haji Abdi and the other leaders of the Alliance, who are currently in Asmara. The fact that they starred down the Ethiopians (in the bleakest hour in the history of the Republic) speaks volumes of their courage and dedications to the national cause. What we doubt is their wisdom to oppose the current UN mediated peace efforts in Somalia – notwithstanding the shortcomings of this peace plan. We call them to be prudent and put first the national interest of Somalia.
The Asmara based Alliance members and Al-Shabab are capable to derail any peace agreement between the other faction of the Alliance and the TFG. In other words, with the military and financial backing of Eritrea (a country known for its legendry perseverance), the Alliance could play the spoiler card. This will entail an eventual fighting with and killing campaigns between the Alliance. It happened to the Afghan Mujaahideen after they defeated the Soviets.
The architects of the current peace efforts have impeccable nationalist credentials. These leaders put their lives on the line and gave up their positions (particularly the former Speaker) for the national cause. The Alliance members in Asmara should give a chance to other Alliance members in Djibouti. They should also convince their Eritrean backers to stand down their opposition to the UN peace plan. That is what the overwhelming majority of the Somali people as well as that of the Alliance members want.
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