Hiiraan Online

Since the defeat of the Courts Union a year and half ago, no functioning government emerged and not even a basic service (clinic or school) is established. The public in general have lost hope for achieving peace and reconciliation and ending the bloodbath over the past 17 years – there is no winners in this destructive cycle, the real loser is the helpless masses.

This war is different from previous inter-clan warfare; it is implicated by the presence and influence of regional and international powers and finding resolution will require a complex process of negotiations. The warring parties underestimated each other and missed opportunities for a peaceful resolution; the war went into stalemate and before we propose a new strategy, we must examine what went wrong and reflect the positions of the competing local and foreign groups and what led us to this difficult stage. It is a common habit that many of us don’t always see eye to eye on many current conflict issues; the reason being the clan and group loyalties. With all this in mind, I would like to take this opportunity to forward my sincere analysis of the current situation and its impact to our future:-

Transitional Federal Government (TFG)

The initial formation of the Transitional Federal Government in Kenya composed of former warlords and their 275 handpicked parliament members. Their leader sought the top job for over 30 years and was finally elected with the backing of Ethiopia. Those elected him (mainly the warlords) didn’t believe that Abdullahi Yusuf is capable of establishing his presidency in Mogadishu. At the end of the conference, the MPs are the ones who overstayed in the Hotels and residences and were evicted and subjected to humiliation – and though they claim to represent their respective clans, they don’t have their people’s best interest at heart. Col. Abdullahi achieved his dream and ultimately occupied the Villa Somalia. Last Saturday, I was fortunate enough to attend the Washington, DC community reception for Somali president Abdullah Yusuf and his delegation at Willard inter-continental Hotel near the White House and was able to listen his candid talk. He appeared feeble; but resolute.

The Asmara Group

The majority of these groups were members of the Court Union and a splinter group from the parliament. The UIC is erected for to safeguard the commerce and the wealth of some major Somali businessmen. They came to the forefront when they defeated the Warlords and thwarted the CIA scheme. They overplayed their hand and become the victim of their success. Now the Shabab branches are committed to fight against the TFG and its backers to the end. Some segments of the Somali society saw the union of the Islamic courts as a different phase of clan domination

Ethiopia and United States

The Ethiopians always claimed Somalia as a part of their land and wanted to conquer. During the civil war, they backed one clan and one warlord against the other.The United states of America in it’s pursuit of few so called value targets of Alqaeda terrorists responsible for exploding the Kenya and Tanzania US embassies and its war on terror, took the opportunity to sponsor the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia and the defeat of the Islamist. Both have limited objectives and the main one uniting them is to avert the rebirth of a strong central government and to deny the Alqaeda affiliated groups a base of operations.

False expectations

When Ethiopian army crushed and drove the courts out of Mogadishu and other major cities, they assumed the group’s resistance is broken and therefore it is the end of the story; they never envisioned that the Shabab can reorganize and become a formidable force to reckon with; on the other hand the Islamist predicts that they can force the TFG and Ethiopian to retreat by hit and run tactics. And as Meles Zenawi pointed out in his interview with Newsweek “this is a low tech war, it will not cost them much”. Also a few million dollars provided by Americans every year will not hurt the US economy.  Ethiopia can forsake 10.000 tigres for the Mogadishu war and it surroundings out of its 78 million population (Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa). The War can go on for very long time; but its cruel effects will be felt by many Somalis inside and outside the country.

Up-coming Negotiations

The up-coming proposed negotiations in Djibouti between Asmara Group and TFG is unlikely to produce viable results, this is similar to the previous series of Khartoum conferences. Back then, the Union was negotiating from position of strength and thought that there are no benefits for them to seriously bargain with their opponents. In this coming meeting, TFG feels the same way and above all this, both groups have no mandate from any constituency and no power to implement any likely peace agreement – Al  shabab is in no mood to stop the war and put down the weopons. To go to this avenue of reconciliation is a pointless exercise of futility.

New strategy

• In my humble opinion, I would consider stopping the on-going war between Ethiopian forces, allied with TFG on one side and the insurgency on the other side prudent and of sound judgment. We have to do every effort to stop this senseless war.
• When the term expires, the TFG has to pave the way for new leadership that is truly representative and accountable to people
• Elect a new Administration with no ties to extremist groups and foreign powers
• Negotiate with American and Ethiopian leaders and convince them that Somalia and its people are no threat to both international and regional peace stability.
• Establish genuine reconciliation between clans and groups
• Repatriate the refugees (the brain) outside the country and start rebuilding the nation.
• Only when we are united, we can demand the foreign interventions to stop. 

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Abdisalam M Garjex

Ashburn –VA (USA) 

E-mail:  [email protected]