By Mohsin Mahad
The capture of Laascaanood by the
secessionist militia of Somaliland and their local collaborators has, as was to
be expected, unleashed widespread jubilations and unbecoming gloating among all
sections of the population in the separatist heartland. Indulging in vainglorious
heroics and phoney triumphalism has always been innately ingrained in the
psyche of the people of that part of Somalia. Although there is nothing
new about this, it has this time gone over the top.
The glory accruing from the defeat of the regime
of Siyad Barre in 1991 was appropriated not by its true claimants, General Aideed
and his USP, but by the SNM and its secessionist supporters when in reality distinguished
themselves in killing unarmed and defenceless non-Isaaq civilians but were otherwise
nothing more to the Siyad Regime than irritating pinpricks. When the State
collapsed and the national army disintegrated, the SNM simply emerged from their
hideouts in the bush and took over what was given to them on a plate. Ever
since then, the carefully contrived larger-than-life SNM image had been idolised
in the secessionist folklore with almost everyone from the area claiming to be
an SNM “mujaahid”, an accolade that has since been added to the Somali lexicon.
Since the capture of Laascannod, the people
in the secessionist area, true to their habit, are falling over themselves in
their unsavoury, lavish praise and glorification of the SNM, with leading
Sheikhs attributing to them divinely ordained missions. Their former tormenter
and pet noire, “President” Riyale, not one to be left out of the act, has also shamelessly
joined the spree as one of their born-again fans. But there is something
surrealistic about this mesmerising spectacle as if this partying over the
capture of Laascaanood was here to stay for ever, with everyone closing their
eyes to what lies ahead or what their irresponsible actions might lead to. It
is like watching the Titanic film where the passengers, the captain and crew are
all having fun partying and decidedly oblivious to the looming dangers ahead-, the
iceberg that will bring a brutal and tragic end to their ephemeral merry-making
Invasions, whether they are undertaken by
one country over another, or one clan against another as is the case now in Sool,
are misguided adventures that are often based on miscalculations, misinformation
and short-sightedness and hence invariably end in disaster. Hitler thought he
could invade and occupy every country in Europe
but in the end it was his own defeated country that was occupied. Napoleon of France
did the same thing and ended in failure and disaster.
The USA
went to Iraq
believing it would be a walk-over and expecting the Iraqis to welcome their soldiers
with flowers but instead showered them with bullets. President Bush was to rue
his unseemly haste to claim victory in Iraq and prematurely proclaim “mission
accomplished” when years later, they are desperate for an exit that would
minimise their humiliating defeat, a replay of their disastrous defeat in
Vietnam over 30years ago. Meles Zenewi had the same perceptions over his
invasion of Somalia
and reckoned his mission would be accomplished in a matter of days. He too is in
the same quackmire as the American.
The lessons of history are that invading a
country is easy but to remain there and face the resistance on its own ground
can only lead ultimately to defeat. Only the timing of that defeat is
questionable but not the outcome. The same fate awaits the invasion of Sool by
the one clan-dominated secessionist administration based in Hargeisa.
Just as Iraqi collaborators misinformed the
Americans about their reception in occupied Iraq, so had the collaborators from
Sool misled their paymasters in Hargeisa. Contrary to their expectations, the
ordinary residents of Laascaanood have risen up against the oncoming invaders
and their collaborators and it is this impromptu uprising that kept the
invading Isaaq militia at bay and denied them to set foot in Laascanood .
Contrary to their expectations, the Isaaq
invasion and occupation of Sool, in particular its capital Laascaanood, has
done more than anything else to unite the entire Dhulbahante clan against this
invasion. The looming struggle will be between them and their Puntland allies on
one side and the invaders and their collaborators on the other side.
Preparations for liberation of Sool - whether at the level of Puntland forces,
clan militia, or possibly the establishment of a Darwiishland liberation front
- are either on place or in the pipeline. Time is on the side of those who own
this land and against those who are trespassers. With their bases in Burco,
Berbera and Hargeisa hundreds of miles away, and bogged down in a hostile
territory, their camps and supply lines will be subjected to regular attacks by
Puntland or other paramilitary forces. How long can the bankrupt Somaliland government continue to maintain this
unsustainable situation? Not for long.
The invasion of Sool and the occupation of
Laascaanood have wider clan ramifications. It is the first time that the whole
Issaq clan invaded the Dhulbahanta. Hitherto, clan fighting had been confined at
any time to two neighbouring clans without other third parties joining the fray.
This time it is different. In normal times, it would have been the duty of the national
government to deal with the problems of this secessionist enclave and counter its
aggressive forays into other parts of Somalia. But in the absence of an
effective Somali government, Somalia
is simply reduced to an amalgam of clans each responsible for the running of
its area. It therefore falls upon the SSC clans to fend for themselves and
defend their territory. But it will also involve other Puntland clans as they
are collectively bound to defend Puntland and liberate any part of it occupied
by an outside enemy.
The Isaaq aggression in the SSC territory
has one single main driving reason: to enhance the prospects for its
recognition. It believes that the main reason for the absence of recognition after
17 years since its declaration of secession was because the SSC area were
outside its control and served as the obstacle to its recognition. As such,
occupying the SSC regions and in particular its capital would serve that
purpose. It would also serve another concomitant purpose which is to de-stabilise
Puntland as the only other functioning regional administration which in turn could
unravel the end of the TFG. If these aims are achieved, it reckons, it will emerge
as the only functioning entity which might merit recognition in the eyes of the
international community which might give up on Somalia and its incurable problems.
What the secessionists fail to reckon is that they
are setting ablaze a hitherto peaceful part of northern Somalia whose adverse consequences
could be detrimental to them more than any one else. The sooner they realise
they are player with fire, the better for all concerned. But for now, no one is
in that mood as the partying over the capture Laascannood goes on. But sooner
or later, the chicken will come home to roost and when it does, many political
heads will roll including that of Riyale who is now temporarily riding high on
the invasion euphoria.
Mohsin Mahad
Email: [email protected]