By Abdisalam M. Garjex

To avert another 15 year cycle of internecine war between clans and different interest groups, there has to be a way out of the current impasse between the fledgling government & Islamic movement that ousted the Mogadishu’s monsters of remorseless cruelty, better known the warlords.

The recent development presents both hopeful future & cause for anxiety - it will depend on the reactions from the two remaining contestants (TFG vs. CIC). We must seize the moment, before all hell breaks loose.

The idea of peacekeeping is not only a counter productive and may ignite a new round of warfare; but it is not a viable option in the current circumstance - Neither African Union members are capable both logistically and militarily to intervene the precarious situation of Somalia nor western nations are willing to support such risk endeavor.

Ethiopian meddling in the Somali affairs will always be seen as sinister plot, that undermines the existence of a sovereign Somali state and whoever solicits support from them will face the wrath of the public at large.

Imminent dangers

In the scenario posed by many experts and analysts is a domino effect, whereby Islamists takeover other provinces - a Rahanweyn Islamic resistance with the backing of the new Mogadishu religious leaders might assume the control of Baydhabo and thus will mean the end of the Transitional Federal Government. And as result of this action, Ethiopia and the USA will be forced to intervene in various means and this will be the beginning of a new era of blood bath.

Since the recent Islamic uprising is based on clan support, an internal dispute could degenerate into sub-clan feud, similar to USC’s early 90s massive slaughter in Mogadishu. The likelihood of any of the aforementioned scenarios happening is real and each and every one of us has some responsibility in avoiding such fiasco.

Image of the Mogadishu Movement

The election of Hassan Dahir Aweys as the chairman of the Shuura sends a wrong signal to both Somalis and the international community alike - they both expect the organization to primarily focus on ending anarchy and lawlessness. Somalia becoming a safe haven for terrorist or effectively forcing strict sharia laws such amputating the limbs and stoning to death to criminals is not a priority for the long suffering masses.

If Sheikh Aweys and other hard liners don’t listen the views of the moderates, such as Sheikh Sharif and don’t reconcile among different segments of the society and only promote their extreme ideas such as those of late General Aidid, they will risk alienating their supporters and will be condemned by their actions. Despite our misgiving and lack of enough information about their intentions, let us sincerely hope that this movement is genuine and give them the benefit of doubt.

The role of the TFG & the international community

The TFG remains in unfavorable position - they are too weak to assert any control beyond the corners of Baydhabo; they are not seen as liberators; but rather occupiers from the northeast region of Puntland.  Any protection and assistance provided by Ethiopian to the government will only be limited in border area. Due to international pressure and internal crisis, Ethiopia will have a limited influence in Mogadishu and its environs and will be less useful in achieving the government’s quest to establish permanently in the capital.

United States and Ethiopia for this matter are not interested in nation building; they are looking for new agents and united under the banner of the global war of terror.

Win-Win strategy

There are no better options left for the two protagonist other than to embrace each other and end once and for all the long misery of the Somali people. For the TFG, it is high time to invite the Islamist to join the government and offer them the premiership or otherwise, whoever rejects this peace proposal will be washed away by floods.