Wednesday October 16, 2024
By Dorian Jones
Turkey's research ship, Oruc Reis, escorted by Turkish warships, set sail this month from Istanbul to Somalia to search for what are widely believed to be vast energy reserves. This deployment is part of an energy and security agreement between Turkey and Somalia, in what analysts say is an accelerating relationship. However, they also caution that growing regional tensions could threaten Ankara's aspirations. Turkey relies on cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia to maintain its regional ambitions, making this relationship vitally important for Turkish interests.
Tensions have been rising since January when Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland, a region that has unilaterally declared independence from Somalia. Under this agreement, Ethiopia would gain sea access in exchange for recognizing the breakaway state. Somalia has condemned the deal, accusing Ethiopia of infringing on its territorial integrity. Turkey has taken on the role of mediating the conflict, but the dispute has broadened as Egypt has started supplying arms to Somalia.
Somalia's growing ties with Egypt could provide it with leverage in negotiating with Ethiopia on more favorable terms, potentially strengthening Somalia's bargaining power. However, if Egypt deepens its security ties with Somalia, Ethiopia may perceive this as a direct security threat, increasing mistrust during talks. Egypt is already at odds with Ethiopia over the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River, and these tensions could also impact Somalia and Ethiopia's military collaboration against the al-Qaeda-linked group, Al-Shabaab.
Analysts believe that while Ankara is still well-positioned to resolve these tensions due to its good relations with all parties, it requires additional diplomatic support. Turkey could remain the lead mediator, but external actors such as the U.S., the European Union, and Gulf states may need to lend their weight to the process to avoid prolonged disputes. The longer these tensions persist, the greater the risk of miscommunication or miscalculation, which could lead to conflict. Given Turkey’s heavy military and diplomatic investments in Somalia, any new conflict or deepening instability in the war-torn region would threaten Ankara’s goal of expanding its influence