Arab Weekly
Saturday August 31, 2024
Two Egyptian military planes arrived at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday morning with weapons and ammunition.
Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi (R) welcomes Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, at Ittihadiya Palace in Cairo, on January 21, 2024. AFP
MOGADISHU - Egypt has opted for a riskier approach in its showdown with Ethiopia over the Nile Dam by delivering its first military aid to Somalia in more than four decades, a move likely to deepen strains between the two countries and Ethiopia, and could spark a proxy-conflict in eastern Africa.
Two Egyptian military planes arrived at Mogadishu airport on Tuesday morning with weapons and ammunition, two diplomats and a senior Somali official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. A video shared on social media and verified by Reuters showed the planes on the airport tarmac.
Egypt and Somalia have drawn closer together this year after Ethiopia signed a preliminary deal with the breakaway region of Somaliland to lease coastal land in exchange for possible recognition of its independence from Somalia.
The Mogadishu government has called the deal an assault on its sovereignty and said it will block it by all means necessary. Landlocked Ethiopia says it needs access to the sea.
Egypt, at odds with Ethiopia for years over Addis Ababa’s construction of a vast hydro dam on the headwaters of the Nile River, has condemned the Somaliland deal.
The issue of the dam resurfaced in recent days after the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) said it is now generating 1,550 megawatts of electricity.
“The overall progress of the GERD has now transitioned from construction phase to operation phase,” with the building of the dam completed.
“The two turbines generating 400MW each have now started operations, adding to the already functional two turbines generating 375MW each, totalling an output of 1,550MW,” it added.
Cairo signed a security pact with Mogadishu earlier this month and offered to send troops to a new peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The agreement was inked in Cairo after talks between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who said the “historic pact is a testament to a future of common defence against international terrorism that Somalia is battling at home and abroad”.
Egypt’s offer to contribute troops to a new peacekeeping mission to be launched next year in Somalia was announced in an African Union communiqué earlier this month.
Somalia has previously threatened to expel Ethiopia’s up to 10,000 troops, who are there as part of the peacekeeping mission and under bilateral agreements to fight al Shabaab militants, if the deal is not cancelled.
Major General Nasr Salem, an advisor at the Nasser Military Academy affiliated with the Egyptian army, said that military cooperation with Somalia comes within Egypt’s drive to protect its vita interests which extend to the sources of the Nile and to the Red Sea.
He told The Arab Weekly that supplying weapons and building strong military relations with Somalia “would contribute to securing Egyptian interests in neighbouring areas, specifically in the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, which ultimately leads to safeguarding Egyptian national security”.
He added that Egypt-Somalia military cooperation is “a message of deterrence to Ethiopia and a signal that any region is within Egypt’s reach if it poses a threat to it.”
But some experts see risks for Egypt and Somalia. They believe Mogadishu is “playing with fire” by importing Egyptian arms and antagonising Ethiopia.
Cairo could provoke a regional military escalation. “If the Egyptians put boots on the ground and deploy troops along the border with Ethiopia, it could bring the two into direct confrontation,” said Rashid Abdi, an analyst with the Sahan Research think-tank based in Somalia.
“The threat of a direct shooting war is low, but a proxy conflict is possible.”
Addis Ababa has reacted angrily to the growing military ties between Egypt and Somalia. Ethiopia’s foreign affairs ministry said in a statement that the country “cannot stand idle while other actors are taking measures to destabilise the region”, while it has worked to promote peace and security for Somalia and the region.
“Forces trying to inflame tension for their short-term objectives must shoulder the grave ramifications,” Ethiopia’s ministry of foreign affairs said on Wednesday.
“Ethiopia cannot tolerate these actions that endanger the gains made against regional and international terrorist groups.”
Ethiopia’s statement did not mention Egypt nor its arms delivery to Somalia.
Turkey also remains in the picture, having hosted two rounds of indirect talks since July between Somalia and Ethiopia over the Somaliland deal, which is yet to be finalised. A third round is expected in September.