Friday August 30, 2024
Women hold signs reading “We Need Ethiopia” and “We Don’t Need Egypt” during a protest in Hudur, Bakool region on Aug. 29, 2024. SUPPLED / Hudur District
Baidoa (HOL) — Residents in Hudur, a remote town in South West state's Bakool region, residents gathered in defiant protest on Friday, voicing their deep unease with the Somali government's plan to replace Ethiopian troops with Egyptian forces. The residents claim the move could unravel the fragile security gains in their town, exposing them once again to the ruthless attacks of Al-Shabaab militants.
The demonstration, organized by local officials and community leaders, was a public rejection of what they see as a dangerous gamble by Mogadishu. In a joint statement, the Hudur District Administration and Bakool Regional Administration expressed their unwavering support for the Ethiopian soldiers who, as they put it, "have long sacrificed their blood to defend the town against enemies and worked alongside the community to ensure they live peacefully in their homes." The statement also conveyed strong opposition to the deployment of Egyptian forces, which they believe could "disrupt the overall security of the region" and "once again inflict suffering on the vulnerable local population that has endured hardships from terrorist enemies for so long."
Hudur officials urged the Somali Federal Government to focus on resolving its diplomatic issues with Ethiopia rather than introducing new challenges that could harm the local population.
The local resistance comes against the backdrop of heightened tension between Somalia and Ethiopia, sparked by Ethiopia's recent Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. The Somali government has condemned the agreement, which grants Ethiopia access to 20 kilometres of Somaliland's Red Sea coastline, as violating its sovereignty. In response, Somalia has snubbed Ethiopian troops in favour of Egyptians in the upcoming African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), the successor to the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS).
For decades, the relationship between Somalia and Ethiopia has been marked by conflict and suspicion stemming from territorial disputes, accusations of internal meddling and differing political alliances. Egypt, however, has long positioned itself as a supporter of Somali sovereignty, seeing it as a counterbalance to Ethiopia's influence in the region, particularly concerning the Nile River and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Egypt's involvement in Somalia marks a major shift in the Horn of Africa's power dynamics. Before the ink dried on a recently signed defence pact, Egypt began deploying military personnel and equipment to Somalia, signalling its commitment to bolstering Somali forces. This military aid, the first from Egypt to Somalia in over four decades, includes the delivery of weapons and ammunition, with plans for further training of Somali troops.
As AUSSOM prepares to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) by January 2025, Egypt's involvement highlights its strategy to project its influence across the Horn of Africa, directly challenging Ethiopia's regional aspirations. Unsurprisingly, Ethiopia has reacted strongly to Somalia's growing ties with Egypt, accusing the Somali government of "colluding with external actors" to destabilize the region. The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry has demanded that Somalia reinstate Ethiopian troops in AUSSOM or face the consequences. Somaliland has also voiced its disapproval of Egypt's growing military footprint in Somalia.
The escalating tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, compounded by Egypt's involvement, have significant implications for regional stability. Analysts warn that this could lead to a proxy conflict that drags neighbouring countries into the fray and disrupts any peace efforts in the Horn of Africa—leaving residents in places like Hudur exposed to the crossfire.
Local officials and community leaders participate in a protest against replacing Ethiopian troops with Egyptian forces in Hudur, Bakool region on Aug. 29, 2024. SUPPLIED / Hudur District