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Somalia’s reform push raises frictions as Al-Shabaab threat looms


Monday October 28, 2024


Somalia’s National Consultative Council (NCC) opens its latest session on Sunday, October 27, 2024, in Mogadishu, gathering federal and state leaders to address key national issues, including electoral reform. Noticeably absent are Jubaland’s President Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s President Said Deni, signaling ongoing divisions over proposed changes to the voting system and term extensions.

Mogadishu(HOL) — Somalia’s federal government’s proposal to replace its clan-based voting system with universal suffrage by 2026 is fueling political discord as the country grapples with a resurgent al-Shabaab insurgency. During an October 2 meeting of the National Consultative Council (NCC), Somali leaders laid out a path toward reform, which includes extending the terms of current state presidents. Yet, the proposal has exposed deep divisions among regional leaders, and the debate is unfolding amid a backdrop of intensifying insurgency.

Jubaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as ‘Madobe,’ left the meeting in protest, rejecting the proposed reforms. Puntland, a region traditionally resistant to federal mandates, declined to attend. Leaders from Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest states expressed cautious support for the reform. However, they face local opposition and the looming challenge of implementing security measures to support a national election. Critics warn that the federal government’s approach risks sidelining key voices, with opposition leaders pointing to the violent fallout from similar reforms in 2022 as a stark cautionary tale.

The reform push comes as Somalia confronts an escalating al-Shabaab insurgency, particularly in the central and southern regions. Between September 21 and October 18, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded 226 political violence incidents, with 393 reported fatalities. Galgaduud’s El Dheer district has become a key battleground where government forces, bolstered by clan militias, are engaged in fierce skirmishes with the militants. The district’s forested terrain has allowed al-Shabaab fighters to evade capture, complicating the government’s efforts to secure the region.

On October 3, federal forces launched an offensive in El Dheer, targeting al-Shabaab positions with air support from international allies. Reports indicate heavy casualties among militants, with ongoing operations seeking to dismantle al-Shabaab’s entrenched bases. However, the insurgency’s endurance in rural areas underscores the difficulty of holding territory in a region where militants continue to exploit clan loyalties and local grievances to their advantage.

While federal forces concentrate efforts in Galgaduud, al-Shabaab has ramped up activities in Jubaland, capitalizing on political disunity to expand its territorial grip. On September 27, the group imposed a blockade on Bardera town, disrupting essential services and further isolating local communities. By setting up checkpoints and taxing travellers along key trade routes in Gedo, Kismaayo, and Jamaame, al-Shabaab has effectively tightened its control in southern Somalia, using intimidation and economic manipulation to undermine government authority.

In recent months, the militants have fortified checkpoints and mobilized fighters in response to sporadic government offensives in Jubaland. Their tactics, including recruiting local militias and imposing financial “zakat” taxes, reveal a sophisticated network that taps into clan loyalties to maintain and expand their regional influence.

As Somalia heads toward its next election cycle, federal officials are pushing for reforms they argue are essential for the country’s democratic progress. However, as regional leaders remain split on the path forward, some analysts caution that pressing ahead without consensus may risk further destabilization. The security situation, particularly in contested regions like Ceel Dheer and Jubaland, raises significant doubts about the viability of a national vote.

Somalia’s federal government faces the delicate task of balancing its ambitions for political reform against the realities of an entrenched insurgency and regional divisions. 
 



 





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