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Egypt poised to join new African Union mission in Somalia amid shifting Horn of Africa dynamics


Thursday November 28, 2024


Egyptian military personnel conduct training drills ahead of their deployment to Somalia as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to replace ATMIS in early 2025. The exercises highlight Egypt's growing commitment to regional peacekeeping efforts.

Mogadishu (HOL) —  Egypt is preparing to send troops to Somalia as part of the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), set to replace the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) in early 2025. While the deployment reflects Egypt’s growing commitment to stabilizing the region, it also intensifies tensions with Ethiopia, threatening to overshadow the mission’s goals.

Defense Minister Mohamed Zaki received a detailed briefing on the readiness of Egyptian forces. A military spokesperson said the session covered training programs, logistical preparation, and equipment upgrades designed to support the mission’s objectives.

“Our forces are ready to contribute to Somalia’s stability through the AUSSOM mission,” said Major General Abdirahman Abdullahi, Egypt’s Chief of Staff. “This deployment reflects our commitment to regional security and cooperation under the African Union’s framework.”

The troops, who recently completed advanced training, represent Egypt’s deepening engagement in African peacekeeping. Under a landmark defence agreement signed in August, Egypt has committed to deploying 10,000 troops to Somalia. Half of the forces will operate within AUSSOM, while the rest will participate in bilateral security operations. In October, Somalia formally welcomed Egypt’s participation in AUSSOM. Egyptian military advisors and counter-terrorism experts are already on the ground, assisting Somali forces in key regions ahead of Ethiopia’s scheduled withdrawal from ATMIS by December 31.

Egypt’s increased military presence in Somalia has drawn sharp criticism from Ethiopia, which sees the move as a direct threat to its regional dominance. Ethiopia currently contributes 22,000 troops to ATMIS, and its planned withdrawal has raised concerns about a potential power vacuum. Ethiopia’s separate agreement with Somaliland, granting access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty, has further strained relations with Mogadishu.

The rivalry between Egypt and Ethiopia threatens to compromise the effectiveness of AUSSOM. Al-Shabaab, Somalia’s primary insurgent group, continues to control large swathes of territory in the south and center of the country. Analysts warn that delays in the transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM could provide the extremist group with opportunities to regain lost ground.

Somalia’s internal divisions also complicate the mission. State governments have voiced concerns over Ethiopia’s withdrawal, with some fearing that the absence of Ethiopian forces could leave their territories vulnerable to attacks. The federal government’s closer ties with Egypt have further deepened these rifts.

The burgeoning trilateral alliance between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea signals a major geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa. During the Asmara summit, the three nations emphasized the need to protect regional sovereignty and secure critical maritime routes in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are vital to global trade and Egypt’s economic security.

While Egypt’s involvement brings new resources and expertise, Somalia represents a key partner in countering Ethiopia’s growing ambitions. Addis Ababa’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile River remains a flashpoint in Egypt-Ethiopia relations. Cairo seeks to leverage its partnerships in the Horn of Africa to pressure Ethiopia diplomatically.



 





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