New leader, old wounds: Somaliland's Irro confronts deep divisions and global indifference

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Thursday November 28, 2024

Abdirahman Abdullahi casts his vote in Hargeisa, Somaliland, on 13 November 2024. He won the presidential election. Luis Tato/AFP via Getty Images

Hargeisa (HOL) — In Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa, the streets are quieter now. The celebrations that followed Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi "Irro's" landslide election victory on November 13 have faded, leaving a nation to face its realities. Irro's 64% triumph ended 14 years of Kulmiye party rule and ushered in a new chapter for the unrecognized state, long hailed as a beacon of democracy in the Horn of Africa.

For Somaliland, a self-declared republic that has maintained peace and relative stability for over three decades, Irro's victory is both a moment of pride and a reminder of the challenges ahead. The 69-year-old president inherits a fractured nation struggling with clan-based divisions, economic stagnation, and the daunting pursuit of international recognition.

The Las Anod conflict remains a festering wound. The separatist SSC-Khatumo forces, citing decades of marginalization, seized territory in eastern Somaliland during Muse Bihi Abdi's presidency.

Under President Muse Bihi Abdi, Somaliland's military launched operations to reclaim the area. However, these campaigns were largely unsuccessful, resulting in significant territorial losses and the displacement of over 200,000 civilians. The conflict has strained Somaliland's resources and highlighted deep-seated grievances among the Dhulbahante community.

Irro's Wadani party has promised to heal these divisions by prioritizing equitable governance. Many believe his approach, centred on inclusion and dialogue, could ease tensions in marginalized regions.

"This administration will need to rebuild trust and ensure that no region or clan feels left behind," a Wadani spokesperson said.

Somaliland's economy is another critical challenge. Youth unemployment has soared to over 70%, and foreign investment remains elusive due to the lack of international recognition. This high unemployment has led to increased migration among young people seeking better opportunities abroad, often embarking on the perilous journey of "tahriib."

Irro's administration must also contend with the controversial Memorandum of Understanding signed by his predecessor with Ethiopia. The agreement, finalized on January 1, 2024, grants Ethiopia a 50-year lease on a 20-kilometer stretch of Somaliland's coastline near the Berbera port, providing Ethiopia with direct access to the Red Sea in exchange for recognition of Somaliland's sovereignty.

The MoU's economic advantages for Somaliland are ambiguous. While it offers Ethiopia a strategic maritime outlet, the specific benefits for Somaliland, such as potential lease or infrastructure development revenue, have not been clearly articulated. The lack of transparency has led to domestic skepticism regarding the deal's value to Somaliland's economy.

Regionally, the agreement has significantly strained relations with Somalia. The federal government in Mogadishu views the MoU as a violation of Somalia's sovereignty and territorial integrity, given that Somaliland's independence is not internationally recognized. In response, Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud condemned the deal, stating, "We will not stand idly by and watch our sovereignty being compromised."

The diplomatic fallout extends beyond Somalia. Egypt, which has its own geopolitical tensions with Ethiopia, particularly over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, has also expressed opposition to the MoU. Reports indicate that Egypt has increased military support to Somalia, including the delivery of arms, potentially as a countermeasure to Ethiopia's expanding influence in the region.

Securing international recognition is Somaliland's longest-running aspiration, and Irro's presidency is expected to double down on this effort. Previous administrations focused heavily on courting Western nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, with limited success. Irro's Wadani party, however, has signalled a shift toward engaging African and Global South states.

Securing international recognition is Somaliland's longest-running aspiration, and Irro's presidency is expected to double down on this effort. Previous administrations focused heavily on courting Western nations, including the United States and the United Kingdom, with limited success. Irro's Wadani party, however, has signalled a shift toward engaging African and Global South states.

The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has reignited optimism in Somaliland's leadership. During his previous term, Trump's administration showed interest in Somaliland's strategic position and democratic governance within the Horn of Africa. Analysts believe President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi "Irro" could capitalize on this renewed focus to advance Somaliland's quest for international recognition. Former UK Defense Secretary Gavin Williamson has reportedly lobbied Trump's team to consider formally recognizing Somaliland's independence, highlighting its stability and democratic values in a volatile region.

However, opposition from Mogadishu remains a major obstacle. Somalia, which claims Somaliland as part of its territory, continues to block recognition efforts, making diplomatic navigation a delicate balancing act for Irro's administration. The African Union (AU) and the Arab League have also refrained from recognizing Somaliland, partly due to Somalia's objections and concerns about setting a precedent for other secessionist movements across the continent.

President Abdirahman Irro's administration faces high expectations. Delivering on promises of inclusivity, economic revitalization, and diplomatic progress will determine whether Somaliland can consolidate its gains or remain mired in unresolved challenges.

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