Friday November 8, 2024
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud meets with leaders of the federal government and three regional states at the National Consultative Council meeting in Mogadishu. The meeting resumed on October 31, 2024, amid a boycott by Jubaland and Puntland. / Credit: SONNA
Mogadishu (HOL) — As Somalia prepares for its first one-person, one-vote elections in more than 50 years, an ambitious move toward democratic reform threatens to deepen fractures within its fragile federal system. Tensions between the Federal Somali Government (FGS) and the regional administrations of Jubbaland and Puntland have escalated over recent months, raising concerns that political disagreements could reignite violence in the run-up to the 2025 elections.
Last month, Somalia’s National Consultative Council (NCC) reached a landmark agreement to replace the current indirect voting system with a direct voting model, where clan delegates and state legislatures select parliamentarians. The shift would allow citizens to directly elect leaders in municipal elections scheduled for June 2025, followed by parliamentary and presidential votes in September. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud heralded the reform as a stride toward stability and national unity, but the move has instead exposed deep-rooted divisions among Somalia’s federal states.
Despite backing from three federal states, the proposal has met sharp resistance from Jubbaland and Puntland, two of Somalia’s most influential regions. Jubbaland’s President Ahmed Mohamed Islam, widely known as “Madobe,” withdrew from the October NCC meetings in protest, arguing that the new system encroaches upon regional autonomy. Madobe’s administration has opted to organize its own elections independently and removed term limits, allowing him to run for a third term—a decision that places him directly at odds with Mogadishu.
Meanwhile, Puntland’s government took a more drastic approach, announcing in March that it would operate outside the federal framework. Puntland officials, dissatisfied with the federal government’s handling of constitutional reform, declared that the state would govern itself independently until these issues are resolved, rejecting the NCC’s election framework altogether.
The standoff is a potential flashpoint for violence. In early 2020, tensions over the disputed 2019 Jubbaland elections erupted into deadly clashes between forces aligned with the FGS and Jubbaland’s regional security, displacing over 56,000 people in Somalia’s south. Analysts warn that a repeat of such conflict could be imminent, particularly as Jubbaland mobilizes its forces in response to Mogadishu’s moves.
Regional actors add another layer of complexity. Ethiopian and Kenyan troops, initially deployed as part of the African Union’s peacekeeping mission, remain in Jubbaland ostensibly to counter Al Shabaab. However, their presence is far from neutral. Ethiopia and Kenya, each with vested interests in Somalia’s stability, have historically backed political factions favourable to their own security concerns. This involvement has, at times, strained Somalia’s sovereignty, as the federal government accuses Ethiopia of arming opposition forces within Puntland and South West states—a charge Addis Ababa denies.
Efforts to de-escalate the crisis continue but remain tentative. Earlier this week, a Kenyan delegation met with Madobe in Kismayo, reportedly seeking a resolution to the standoff between Jubbaland and the SFG. President Mohamud has also expressed willingness to meet with the presidents of Jubbaland and Puntland, though no formal dialogue has been scheduled.
The international community is watching closely. Somalia’s 2025 elections are seen as an integral step toward stability in the Horn of Africa, but the fragile peace depends on whether Somali leaders can bridge their differences. For now, Jubbaland and Puntland’s defiance accentuates the delicate balance of power in Somalia’s federal system.