Pivotal election talks collapse as Somalia lurches towards constitutional crisis

Saturday February 6, 2021

Mogadishu (HOL) - Urgent talks between Somalia's federal government and the Federal Member States in Dhusamareb, 400 km (250 miles) north of the capital Mogadishu, collapsed on Thursday as leaders looked to forge a deal ahead of a February 8 deadline to elect a new President.

President Farmajo convened the three-day conference in a bid to resolve an electoral impasse that threatens to descend the country into a constitutional crisis. However, negotiations between the federal government collapsed because Jubaland and Somalia's federal government could not agree with what to do over the Gedo region, which has been the crux of the electoral crisis.

Jubaland has remained adamant that Somali National Army soldiers must evacuate from the Gedo region in Jubaland before credible polls can occur. Pointing to the latest incident in Beled Hawo, Farmajo is arguing that the federal troops are protecting Somali sovereignty, and he is within his rights to station his troops there. Furthermore, Madobe pushed for a new electoral committee appointed by him to manage the local elections and ultimately decide the fate of 16 MP's from the Gedo region.

Puntland, which has remained a steadfast ally against the federal government's centralization of power, has supported Jubaland in its position.

Somalia's federal government laid the blame at Jubaland's feet, saying that Madobe was unwilling to compromise despite Mogadishu making several concessions.

The talks have been described as "dishonest" by participants on both sides. It appears that both sides met due to mounting international pressure to break the election deadlock. It is clear that even if a deal were hatched in Dhusamareb, there would not be enough time to hold elections before the government's mandate expired.

The international community issued a joint press release where it urged Somali stakeholders to adhere to the September 17 agreement that was endorsed across the political spectrum, adding that "there can be no re-opening of the September 17 Agreement or the creation of an alternative or parallel process."

The looming question remains, what will happen after President Farmajo's mandate expires on Monday? Farmajo has long denied that he was seeking an extension, telling that nation that it will create mistrust, but that has not stopped opposition figures and presidential hopefuls from being suspicious of his true intentions.

H.E @M_Farmaajo to address the Lower and Upper houses of our Federal Parliament this morning as part of his dedication to ensure the aspirations of our nation and citizens on the Elections are met. The President and his delegation have left #Samareeb this morning for #Mogadishu.

— Abdirashid M. Hashi (@MrDuqa) February 6, 2021

It is unclear if Somalia's lawmakers will vote for an extension on Saturday, as the Senate is indicated that no joint-session has been scheduled in the coming days.  Abdirashid M Hashi, the President's Director of Communications, announced in a tweet on Friday that Farmajo had left Dhusamareb for the capital where he is expected to address Somalia's Upper and Lower Houses of Parliament on Saturday morning. In any case, the Council of Presidential Candidates has repeatedly said that it will not accept an extension of the government's mandate.

Electoral extensions are not new territory for Somalia. Indirect polls were postponed in both 2012 and 2016 when Farmajo was elected without any considerable fallout, but many worry that this time may be different.