Sunday March 31, 2019
than 7 million and an estimated 17 million people in conflict-affected
South Sudan and Yemen, respectively, are expected to be in Crisis (IPC
Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) through September 2019. In addition,
while many areas are expected to be in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in the
presence of food assistance. The risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists,
should there be sustained lack of access to livelihoods, markets, and
humanitarian assistance, for isolated populations in parts of Jonglei,
Lakes, and Upper Nile states. Famine (IPC Phase 5) would also be likely
in Hajjah and Sa’ada governorates should trade disruptions in Al
Hudaydah port occur, where populations are already facing extreme
household food deficits and are cut off from humanitarian assistance.
At least 7.1 million poor households are expected to
experience food gaps or deplete livelihood assets in pastoral and
agropastoral areas of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia that experienced
drought conditions and production deficits during the October to
December rainy season. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are
expected in Ethiopia and Somalia and an elevated number of households in
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are likely in Kenya. In the absence of funded
assistance from June to September, Guban Pastoral livelihood would
deteriorate to Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Conflict-affected populations in
Sudan are also likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC
Phase 4) through September, as access to humanitarian assistance and
livelihoods remains constrained.
At the time of publication, outlooks were based on seasonal
forecast assumptions of average to above-average March to May rainfall.
However, delayed and below-average rainfall in March in the greater Horn
of Africa has resulted in a revised seasonal forecast of below-average
to average rainfall. Two consecutive below-average production seasons
would lead to rapid deterioration in food security for poor households
and an early start to the next lean season. Should expected outcomes
change, revised mapping will be available in April.
About 12 million people were internally displaced in
Burundi, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Yemen by mid-March
2019. An additional 5.3 million refugees from these countries are in
camps in Burundi, the DRC, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania.
Most refugees are Stressed! (IPC 2!), supported by humanitarian food
assistance. However, potential pipeline breaks would likely lead to
refugees falling into Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Internally displaced
populations have limited capacities to access food and income and many
are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
- The average Meher
harvest replenished household stocks in Meher producing parts of the
central and western parts of the country and major portions of these
areas of the country will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food
insecurity from February to September 2019. Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
outcomes are expected to continue, however, in southeastern and
northeastern Ethiopia through September 2019 due to drought and conflict
- In portions of the eastern lowlands of Oromia, eastern Amhara and
southern Tigray, and conflict affected areas of SNNPR, and Oromia, Meher
production is below average and access to food for the majority of
households is constrained. These areas will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
between February and September 2019. Southern parts of SNNPR and Oromia,
southern and central Afar, northern Somali region of Shinile zone and
major parts of eastern Amhara and southeastern Tigray will remain in
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to September 2019.
- Conflict-induced displacement needs have increased across different
parts of the country due to displacements that negatively affected
households’ access to food and income – according to DTM 14, more than 3
million people were displaced from their homes by the end of 2018. This
displacement limits livelihoods opportunities and restricts
humanitarian access. Some locations in Kemashe zone of Benshangul
Gumuze, and Dawa zone of Somali region remain inaccessible until the end
of 2018, hindering the delivery of much needed humanitarian assistance.
For more information, see the Ethiopia Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- Due to the positive impacts of the preceding above-average 2018
long rains season that persist nationwide, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and
Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes prevail in Kenya despite mixed 2018
short rains performance. Carryover long rains stocks and favorable terms
of trade are maintaining household food availability and food access.
Forecast average March to May 2019 long rains in eastern Kenya and
above-average long rains in western, unimodal areas is expected to
result in normal crop and livestock production, improving more areas to
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September.
- In marginal agricultural areas, short rains maize production was 55
to 65 percent below the five-year average, driving Stressed (IPC Phase
2) outcomes. Due to the availability of carryover stocks combined with
short rains production, however, household maize stocks are only 21
percent below the five-year average in the southeast and 22 percent
above average along the coast. Given likely average agricultural labor
demand and average long rains harvests in 2019, most marginal
agricultural livelihood zones are expected to improve to Minimal (IPC
Phase 1) through September. However, in areas where the long rains
harvest is more minimal, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to
- In pastoral Kenya, livestock body conditions and milk production are
declining but generally remain better than normal for the dry season,
while above-average goat-to-maize terms of trade in most reference
markets is sustaining household purchasing power. The expected average
long rains are expected to lead to seasonal improvements in livestock
productivity, permitting most households to meet their minimum food
needs through the peak of lean season in September. As a result, most
livelihood zones are expected to sustain Stressed (IPC Phase 2)
outcomes, though some households in eastern, northern, and northwestern
pastoral areas are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
For more information, see the Kenya Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- Drought conditions in the 2018/19 Deyr season have led
to an increase in the total food insecure population since October.
However, the impact of humanitarian food assistance resulted in an 11
percent decline in the population in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) compared to
the post-Gu. In the presence of food assistance, most northern
pastoral livelihood zones and nearly half of IDP settlements are
currently Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), while Guban Pastoral is in Crisis!
(IPC Phase 3!). Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in Togdheer Agropastoral
livelihood zone and most remaining IDP settlements.
- National Deyr cereal production was 25 percent below
average, but production shortfalls in low potential agropastoral areas
ranged from 60 percent below average to failed. Poor households are
expected to deplete their food stocks by March or earlier. In northern
and central pastoral areas, declining livestock body conditions, limited
livestock saleability, and rising food prices are expected to constrain
household food access. Needs will be highest in April and May, at the
peak of the pastoral lean season and start of the agricultural lean
- Due to funding shortfalls that may prevent full implementation of
planned food assistance, deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is
expected in many pastoral and agropastoral areas through May. In Guban
Pastoral livelihood zone, In other areas, seasonal improvements driven
by anticipated average Gu rainfall are likely to restore Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from June onward.
For more information, see the Somalia Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- Extreme levels of acute food insecurity persist across South
Sudan during the 2018/19 post-harvest period. Based on the January 2019
IPC analysis, 6.17 million people were in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse
in January. This estimate was in the presence of humanitarian food
assistance and included roughly 30,000 people in Catastrophe (IPC Phase
- Conflict has declined somewhat since mid-2018, and staple food
prices have declined slightly in several areas. Despite these
improvements, conflict and very poor macroeconomic conditions still
exist and are expected to persist throughout the projection period.
Furthermore, many households still face extreme difficulty meeting
their basic food needs as the protracted conflict has significantly
disrupted livelihoods and eroded households’ coping capacity.
- Food security is expected to deteriorate through the July/August
peak of the lean season. Although humanitarian food assistance is
anticipated to scale up during the lean season and will likely prevent
more catastrophic outcomes, past trends indicate that the severity of
food insecurity still increases during the lean season relative to the
harvest period despite the increase in humanitarian food assistance.
Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are
anticipated, and some households are likely to be in Catastrophe (IPC
Phase 5). Jonglei, Lakes, and Upper Nile States are of greatest concern,
though concern still remains high for Unity, Western Bahr el Ghazal,
and Greater Kapoeta. The total population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or
worse is expected to increase to an estimated 7.7 million people between
May and July/August, in the absence of humanitarian food assistance.
- A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will persist in South Sudan. Past
trends indicate that food security can deteriorate sharply when conflict
shifts and severely limits household movement and humanitarian access.
Should this worst-case scenario occur, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be
likely. In order to sustain long-term food security improvements and end
the persistent risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan, full
implementation of the September 2018 peace deal and an end to the
conflict by all parties is needed.
For more information, see the South Sudan Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- Food security has seasonally improved with increased cereal
availability following the November to February harvest. However, the
macroeconomic situation remains very poor and is expected to further
deteriorate throughout the projection period, and this will drive
continued extremely high food and non-food prices. The negative impacts
of high food prices will be somewhat mitigated by the fact that
livestock prices and wage labor are also increasing, though overall
purchasing power will remain below average. A higher number of
households than is typical will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse
outcomes through September.
- Between June and September, the lean season in Sudan, Crisis (IPC
Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of Red Sea, Kassala, Al Gadarif,
Blue Nile, West Kordofan, North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Greater
Darfur. Of highest concern are the IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of
South Kordofan and SPLA-AW controlled areas of Jebel Marra, who have
been inaccessible for both assessments and food assistance deliveries.
IDPs in these areas are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during
the August-September peak of the lean season.
- The June to September 2019 rainy season is forecasted to be above
average. This is anticipated to lead to flooding in mid-2019 and
increase the prevalence of waterborne disease. Similar to 2018, it is
anticipated that the above-average rainfall will lead to favorable crop
yields, though ongoing macroeconomic issues likely continue to limit
households’ capacity to cultivate and harvest at normal levels. Overall,
2019/20 production will likely be average, though more reliable harvest
projections will be possible once planting is underway in June/July.
For more information, see the Sudan Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- Anticipated above-average March to May rainfall in bimodal areas
is expected to result in average crop and livestock production and
related labor opportunities, though areas prone to flooding and
landslides would see localized production shortfalls. Consecutive
seasons of near-average bimodal production is expected to maintain
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through September.
- In Karamoja, household food gaps are expected to widen, particularly
in Kotido and Kaabong. Declining wage rates and rising food prices are
limiting purchasing power, thereby constraining household food access
and increasing the use of negative coping strategies. 2019 production is
anticipated to be slightly below-average, driven by reduced area
planted as most farmers were unable to save seeds from failed 2018
harvests. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to intensify until
July, when availability of the harvests will support recovery to
Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
- In bimodal Uganda, low staple food prices driven by surplus market
supply are enhancing food access. Retail prices of maize, sorghum, and
cassava in January were below both the five-year and previous year
averages by two to 38 percent, and prices are expected to remain low to
near-average throughout the scenario period. However, sorghum prices in
northern Karamoja are highly dynamic due to increased household demand
and poorer market supply flows. Although prices stabilized in January
compared to the five-year average, prices are currently 11 and 50
percent above the five-year average in Nakapiripirit and Kotido markets.
- In refugee settlements, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are
expected to be maintained, driven by humanitarian food assistance and
own production. Assistance is planned through September and at least
partially funded through May. However, food security outcomes would
deteriorate to Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) in the event of significant ration
For more information, see the Uganda Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
- FEWS NET estimates that approximately 17 million people in Yemen
would be in need of urgent action (IPC Phase 3 or higher) in the
absence of ongoing humanitarian food assistance. Sa’ada and Hajjah
governorates are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4), which is associated with
large food consumption gaps and/or extreme depletion of livelihood
assets. Of the remaining governorates in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), six would
be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of ongoing assistance.
- Conflict continues in Al Hudaydah governorate, although at lower
levels than prior to the Stockholm Agreement reached in mid-December
2018. Meanwhile, hostilities have escalated in Hajjah and Sa’ada
governorates. The potential for conflict to significantly disrupt
imports and trade through Al Hudaydah City remains a high concern, and
in a worst-case scenario could lead to Famine (IPC Phase 5).
- Large-scale humanitarian assistance continues to play an important
role in reducing the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes in
Yemen. In January 2019, WFP
distributed in-kind and voucher assistance to approximately 9.1 million
people. At current funding and assistance levels, WFP expects to
continue providing assistance through April 2019, and to scale up its
assistance to reach 12 million people each month.
For more information, see the Yemen Food Security Outlook from February to September 2019.
Remote Monitoring Countries
- Total Season 2019A production of maize, beans, and
semi-perennials is likely to be above average at the national level.
However, localized areas across the country, particularly in Busoni,
Bugabira and Kirundo Communes in Kirundo Province, have significant
maize and bean production shortfalls due to a dry spell at critical
growth stages. Affected households are currently receiving humanitarian
food assistance, which is enabling Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes,
but they would likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of
assistance at the peak of lean season in April. Although most other
areas are currently in Minimal (IPC Phase 1), at least 20 percent of the
population is likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the leans
season until the Season B harvests are well underway. Season B planting
is expected to be completed on time in March and forecast average March
to May rains are likely to lead to average June-August harvests.
- Household food access remains generally stable or has improved,
except in areas that experienced severe production shortfalls. According
to key informants in Busoni and Bugabira communes, staple food prices
remained generally stable from November 2018 to January 2019. From
February to March, however, cereal and bean prices increased by about 10
percent. The price of banana and roots and tubers remained stable or
declined. Demand for unskilled labor has remained relatively stable,
leading to a slight increase in wages compared to one year ago.
- Humanitarian food assistance and livelihoods programs continue to
enable Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes for vulnerable IDP, Congolese
refugee, and Burundian returnee populations. No major change in the
numbers of IDPs and Congolese refugees is anticipated; however, the
number of returnees is likely to increase in coming months as nearly
20,000 refugees in Tanzania have registered for voluntary return and are
expected to come back home within 2019. Current population figures are
estimated to be 142,000 IDPs, 43,000 refugees in camps, and 52,000
returnees. In the absence of assistance, many of these households would
be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
For more information, see the Burundi Remote Monitoring Report for February 2019.
- Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected throughout Rwanda
through September 2019, supported by above-average crop production and
anticipated below-average food prices. However, localized areas may be
severely affected by flooding and landslides due to above-average
rainfall currently forecast for the March-May period. Those areas may
temporarily face Stressed (IPC Phase 2 food security outcomes before
receiving assistance. The northern and western parts of Rwanda are
particularly vulnerable to those natural disasters.
- According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda (NISR),
staple food prices decreased by 0.7 percent in rural areas and remained
unchanged in urban areas between December and January, a time that is
typically the peak of the lean season. Food prices are likely to stay
below average in most areas throughout the projection period, supporting
favorable food access from markets.
- An estimated 145,000 people are refugees in Rwanda. Many are
increasingly seeking jobs across the country or engaging in petty trade.
Various organizations have also started to implement programs that
assist refugees integrate into national health, educational, and safety
nets systems. Most refugees in Rwanda face no acute food insecurity (IPC
Phase 1!), though some are likely Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!).
For more information, see the Rwanda Remote Monitoring Report for February 2019.