Wednesday October 24, 2018
By Omar S Mahmood
Rather than competing over Somalia’s limited resources, political leaders should focus on growing the overall pie.
The announcement by Somalia’s Federal Member States in September that
they’ve suspended cooperation with the Federal Government of Somalia
has thrown the country into internal crisis.
Amid numerous complaints, the member states are unhappy with resource
and power allocation within Somalia’s federal structure. They also accuse
President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s administration in Mogadishu of a
lack of cooperation, and even outright interference in their local
affairs.
While the dispute has played out differently in each of the member
states, the ramifications have been most profound in Galmudug. Internal
divisions in the Galmudug Interim Administration have been elevated by
the dispute, with factions taking opposing sides in the debate.
The roots of Galmudug’s crisis are complex, but the current rift
stems from mediations last year between the Galmudug Interim
Administration and Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama (ASWJ), held under the auspices
of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
In December 2017, a 14-point agreement was signed
that integrated ASWJ into the Galmudug Interim Administration, uniting a
state administration that had been divided since its formation in
2014-15. The integration of ASWJ proceeded in a positive manner, but it
also created new divisions.
Member states are unhappy with resource and power allocation within Somalia’s federal structure
The December agreement was based on a power-sharing arrangement,
enticing ASWJ in part by allowing its leader Sheikh Mohammed Shakir to
become chief minister. ASWJ also secured other key positions, while the
state assembly and security outfits were expanded to include ASWJ
members.
But an IGAD representative involved in the mediation process told the
Institute for Security Studies in Mogadishu that the creation of the
chief minister position was the key dynamic, and ‘is how we unlocked it
[the negotiations]’.
This was an important development, as ASWJ had previously rejected the
Galmudug Interim Administration’s formation, feeling marginalised by
the process. Given the military strength of the ASWJ’s position on the
ground, it was imperative to come to an understanding in order to unite
the administration, especially after previous integration agreements had
floundered.
While the ASWJ-Galmudug Interim Administration reconciliation was a
positive story, it produced new losers in the administration concerned
about diluting their status in the new arrangement. This has led
Galmudug to be divided
between a faction in Adado, worried about becoming marginalised as the
Galmudug Interim Administration was temporarily based here, and a second
in Dhusamareb, the presumptive new capital following the ASWJ
agreement.
Power-sharing arrangements underpinned by zero-sum thinking have clear limitations for Somalia
A series of attempted no-confidence
motions
have flown back and forth between Galmudug’s Speaker of Parliament Ali
Gacal Asir, who has remained in Adado, and its President Ahmed Dualle
Haaf, now based in Dhusamareb and supported by the ASWJ. The Adado
faction even went ahead with plans to
elect a new Galmudug Interim Administration leader on 20 October, further adding confusion to the status of the administration.
The dispute has been exacerbated in the context of the Federal
Government of Somalia-Federal Member States divide. Haaf was one of the
member states leaders supporting the suspension of cooperation with the
government in Mogadishu. His vice president, aligned with the Adado
faction, criticised the decision.
Since then, the member states have strongly accused the government of
meddling in the Galmudug dispute in support of the Adado faction, in
order to weaken, if not secure the outright removal of, Haaf.
This has escalated the Galmudug Interim Administration divisions to a national level, with trust so low that Haaf recently rejected
Mogadishu’s offer to mediate again. This echoed demands from other
member states that a third party intermediary was needed before any
future discussions with Mogadishu.
The showdown has paralysed Galmudug, and in many ways overshadowed
what was previously considered a success story in terms of managing
local political constituencies. It illustrates one of the unfortunate
realities underpinning current political bargaining in much of Somalia –
a zero-sum mindset regarding resource access, meaning that bringing new
entrants into the system is equated with losses for others.
Somalia’s showdown has paralysed Galmudug, overshadowing what has been considered a success story
Former United Nations Special Representative for Somalia Michael Keating aptly summarised this dynamic when
reflecting
on his tenure in Somalia, noting that ‘for 20 to 30 years there’s been
intense competition for power and influence and control, including for
resources and revenue, over a pie that big’.
His advice is for Somali leaders to shift from contesting the
existing limited resources and instead focus on growing the overall pie
through economic development and security improvements, so there is
ultimately more to go around. This is sound advice that could
immediately apply in the Galmudug context and beyond. All the more so
given that initial results regarding the ASWJ’s integration had been
promising for the Galmudug Interim Administration.
IGAD Special Envoy to Somalia Dr Mohamed Ali Guyo attended an event
marking the implementation of the agreement in January. He later noted
to the ISS the high degree of unity and outreach each side had conducted
with their respective constituencies over the previous month, aspects
not apparent during previous deals.
Unfortunately the unity in Galmudug proved short-lived, as the
success of the ASWJ integration ultimately reduced the size of the pie
for others in the administration. Therein lies the crux of the country’s
political disputes – both within the Galmudug Interim Administration
and between member states and the federal government.
But it is also potentially the solution. Instead of disruptive
competition, Somali actors should rather focus on the tough task of
growing the pie, as power-sharing arrangements underpinned by zero-sum
thinking have clear limitations.
Expanding overall stakes can allow the accommodation of divergent
parties in a more sustainable way, ensuring that they are all part of
something growing with shared benefits, rather than something stagnant
with limited resources to allocate.
Omar S Mahmood, Researcher, ISS Addis Ababa