Is it now time for Uganda, Burundi to leave Somalia?

Monday September 7, 2015

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The Shabaab militants may have suffered setbacks at the hands of the African Union Mission in Somalia (Amisom) in recent months, but they are still deadly.

Tuesday was a bad day for Ugandan peacekeepers, when at least 50 troops were reportedly killed by the Shabaab when they overran their camp in Janaale, southern Somalia.

The attack is considered one of the deadliest yet against Amisom troops.

In June, Al Shabaab claimed to have killed 30 Burundian Amisom soldiers when, again, they overran their camp in the southern Somali town of Leego.

In 2012, after Ugandan and Burundian Amisom forces broke Shabaab’s back in Mogadishu, and started rolling back the militants, they had bloodied the militants so much, it was rare for them to even attempt these kinds of attacks.

It is probably no accident that these attacks are mounting today, and that the Ugandan and Burundian troops are being targeted more than the Ethiopians, Kenyans, or Djiboutians.

These two countries have been in Somalia longest — eight years. In 2007, months after the AU had voted for a mission to Somalia, there were no takers.

Ethiopia’s intervention in Somalia had ended in humiliation, and Addis Ababa had withdrawn. Some gutsy fellows in Kampala decided that they would put their necks on the line, and so they sent troops to a Mogadishu that was still controlled by Shabaab. Some weeks later, they were joined by Burundi.

It would take another five years before Kenya went into southern Somalia, and only in January 2014 that Ethiopia returned as part of Amisom, although it has always maintained a buffer zone inside Somalia near its borders.

If Uganda had not been mad enough to send troops in 2007, the Amisom mission might never have taken off.

However, there is a sense in which Kampala has done its duty, and it’s time for another country to step in and replace its troops, and also Burundi. Both may well be distracted by events back home.

Burundi has been in turmoil since President Pierre Nkurunziza made his third-term power grab, sending his country into a spiral of violence. The army is divided, and it seems sections of it have broken away and started a new rebellion.

It’s hard to see how Nkurunziza can keep harmony in the ranks of Burundi troops in Somalia. Indeed, his own preference may be to have the loyal ones back home protecting his presidency, not Somalis.

Uganda, on the other hand, has a large force in South Sudan protecting the Salva Kiir regime, which is battling a rebellion led by his former deputy Riek Machar.

Also, President Yoweri Museveni seems set to face the election of his life as he seeks a seventh term of office. Indicative of the threat assessment, a pro-government militia is being trained, presumably to intimidate opposition supporters.

If Ugandan troops in Somalia have dropped their guard, it is probably because the level of political attention the mission is receiving from Kampala is not as high as it was two years ago.

Author: Charles Onyango-Obbo is editor of Mail & Guardian Africa.

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