New al-Shabaab leader's silence sparks speculation

Little is known about al-Shabaab's new leader Ahmed Omar, also known as Abu Ubaida. Al-Shabaab fighters are pictured above in Somalia in an undated photograph. [AFP]

By Abdi Moalim
Saturday, November 1, 2014

advertisements

MOGADISHU — Nearly two months after al-Shabaab named Ahmed Omar to replace slain leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, still very little is known about him, his intentions and his ability to lead a factious al-Shabaab.

Some analysts say Omar's continuing silence reveals he lacks the leadership skills to restore al-Shabaab's morale following Godane's death, successive military losses and an increasing number of defections among al-Shabaab fighters.

Others caution, however, that it is too soon to tell how Omar, known as Abu Ubaidah, will lead the group and in what direction he plans to take it.

Omar, who was close to Godane, has been fighting with al-Shabaab for a long time, but he remains a mystery even within the group, said Mohamed Farah Ali al-Ansari, a former al-Shabaab leader who surrendered to the Somali government in 2010 and now directs the government's militia rehabilitation centres.

"Abu Ubaidah is thought to be in his fifties," al-Ansari told Sabahi. "He was born around Luuq district in Gedo where his family resides."

Before joining al-Shabaab, between 1997 and 2006, he was part of the group al-Itihaad al-Islamiya and the Ras Kamboni Brigade that was led by Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki.

"He later became one of the low-ranking officers of the Islamic Courts Union," al-Ansari said. "As the Islamic Courts Union was weakened towards the end [of 2006], he worked closely with [former al-Shabaab leader] Aden Hashi Farah Ayro. He worked as Godane's assistant from Ayro's death [in 2008] until now."

Omar is not an educated man, al-Ansari said. "I do not even think his education reached high school level," he said, adding that Omar took religious lessons while he was part of Ras Kamboni and speaks and writes in Somali and Arabic.

Even though Omar has not taken steps to deliberately hide himself from the public, al-Shabaab fighters do not know him well by face or by reputation, and he was mostly unknown outside of the group before now, al-Ansari said.

"In 2010, [Omar] briefly became the governor of Bay and Bakol, but he was relieved of that post after a little while," he said.

Comparing past and present al-Shabaab leaders

Omar's lack of education and leadership experience indicates he also lacks the necessary capacity to lead a group like al-Shabaab, said Abdirahman Isse Addow, former spokesperson for the Islamic Courts Union and current director of Radio Mogadishu.

"The new leader is a poorly educated man who does not have a well-known name [within al-Shabaab's ranks], so it will be difficult for him to keep together the various factions of the group," he told Sabahi.

In contrast, he said, "Godane was an educated man, who finished university, had been to foreign countries, made many connections and had a lot of experience."

"Godane had a strong grip on the group," he said, adding that the former leader was clever and adapted his leadership to keep al-Shabaab's various factions under his thumb.

"He threatened some, killed some, bribed some and chased some away, such as the foreigners whose influence he greatly restricted," Addow said. "He was very careful about anyone getting familiar with him and knowing a lot about him."

Therefore, Omar is a poor choice to replace a leader like Godane, who took many precautions and prepared himself to be a leader from the outset, Addow said.

"Godane was preparing to become the leader [as far back as] 2005. He did not let anyone to get to know him, he refused to have his photo taken, he was careful about the car he rode in and limited the number of people he met with," Addow said, adding that Omar has not taken any such precautions and lived as a regular person.

Succession process unclear

It is still unclear how Omar was chosen or nominated to lead al-Shabaab. Some who have knowledge of the group say he was chosen based on Godane's last wishes, while others say he was appointed by Godane's inner circle of confidantes, who saw Omar as the most worthy.

"Based on the information I have, Abu Ubaidah was the first on a list of five people whom Godane said should assume the leadership in sequence," Addow told Sabahi, declining to name any others on the list except for Mahad Mohamed Ali "Karate", who also was among Godane's closest allies.

"Abu Ubaidah was very close to Godane," he said. "He was responsible for co-ordinating and controlling the provinces. He used to go to many villages to collect information related to al-Shabaab, especially on how people viewed them."

Al-Ansari, however, said Omar's appointment did not come about as a result of Godane's last wishes. Rather, Omar was seen as indispensable due to the information he had as he was closer to Godane than anyone else.

"This man has knowledge of funding sources and confidential information, such as the governments likely to support [al-Shabaab], places where funds or equipment are funnelled through, the relationship with al-Qaeda, as well as [information] about internal relationships," he said.

Aside from the secrets he holds, Omar has no other leadership qualities for which he was chosen, according to al-Ansari, who added that it is possible al-Shabaab will appoint a more experienced leader in the coming months to appease members.

For his part, Liban Abdi Ali, a journalist who works for US-based Alhurra TV and previously worked for the Somali state-run Radio Mogadishu, said Omar's appointment was the result of conflict among Godane's inner circle.

"There were many men who desired the leadership role and they chose [Omar] to avoid conflict among them," Ali told Sabahi.

Nonetheless, Ali said it was too early to determine whether Omar will have the charisma and oratory skills Godane was known for, as there are no previous speeches of his on record to analyse.

"The first speech he gives will reveal the level of his capacity," he said.

Omar's continuing silence

Analysts remain perplexed about why Omar has been silent this long. He was appointed September 6th, but has yet to deliver a public speech to the group or its supporters, or make any statements to through the media.

Following the defeats al-Shabaab has suffered at the hands of the Somali National Army and allied forces, Omar has no victories to report to al-Shabaab supporters and fighters and is waiting for the right opportunity, said Addow, the Radio Mogadishu director.

"Abu Ubaidah took over this post while al-Shabaab is in its most difficult period in its history," he said. "He is facing several compounding factors such as the huge internal rift among the members of the group, the death of its leader, the loss of much of the territory it controlled and the widespread financial difficulties the group has suffered."

Since not much is known about him, Omar's first speech will need to make an impact on supporters, Addow said.

"For instance, he has to clearly say how they will work with al-Qaeda or other foreign groups, how they will manage [Somalia's] regions, and how the group will be led," he said. "[But] he has yet to figure out what will be the group's strategy for the near future. It is also possible the strategy is being set abroad and he is waiting to hear from foreign elements."

Omar Dahir Sheikh Abdirahman, director of the Centre for Moderation and Dialogue, dismissed much of the speculation, saying an alternative scenario is that Omar is busy preparing al-Shabaab operations, and giving a speech is not that important to him.

"It is possible that he is a doer and not a talker," he told Sabahi, adding that Omar's silence may not be an indication of weakness and should not be underestimated.

"The man who replaced the famous Godane, despite not much being known about him, could be a capable man who has secretly done a lot [for al-Shabaab] and was chosen for that reason," Abdirahman said. "It is possible that he is not good at expressing himself but has strong performance."

"It also is possible that for security reasons he is hiding his voice and wants to speak to individual groups instead of giving a public speech," he said.

Home
Email

Hiiraan Online