Hiiraan Online

Residents of the village of Modmoday, 40 kilometres east of the southern Somali town of Baidoa, check the situation as a Somali National Army soldier keeps guard in October 2013. [AFP PHOTO / AU-UN IST PHOTO / ABDI DAKAN

But as the evidence of those efforts remain to be seen, military and political analysts say there are considerable challenges to bringing peace to the country and freeing the people from al-Shabaab's oppression.

In a speech to mark the end of 2013, Somali President Hassan Shiekh Mohamud told the nation that the public would hear good news soon regarding the expulsion of al-Shabaab.

Mohamud's spokesperson Abdirahman Omar Osman Yarisow told Sabahi that the president's speech was about the impending liberation of major towns that serve as bases for al-Shabaab.

"This year, we want to liberate the places where al-Shabaab are based, including the town of Barawe," he said.

The coastal town of Barawe remains an al-Shabaab stronghold and a benchmark for the Somali government and its international partners, where the militants banned television and increased harassment of residents following the attempted capture of a senior al-Shabaab leader by US Navy SEALs last October.

AMISOM spokesperson Colonel Ali Aden Humad expressed similarly optimistic hopes for the demise of al-Shabaab in 2014.

"The year 2014 will be one in which the Somali people will see a tangible difference on the security front," he told Sabahi in an interview last month. "If the Somali people and the world were disappointed in our work [in 2013], we will make a big change this year. We are now located in important cities, but we will also gain control of the remaining areas quickly."

Yet al-Shabaab's New Year's Day attack at the Jazeera Hotel in Mogadishu, and subsequent attacks against Villa Somalia and on a restaurant near the headquarters of Somalia's National Security Agency have rattled citizens and called into question the Somali government's and AMISOM's ability to fulfil their promises.

Strengthening the Somali National Army

To be successful in the fight against al-Shabaab, government forces must not only liberate territories from al-Shabaab, but also be able to protect and retain those territories once they are freed, said Professor Abdikarim Daud Nur, who teaches political science at Mogadishu University and served as a colonel in the Somali army during the Mohamed Siad Barre regime.

"First, the president and the prime minister must work together and must not have another [political] conflict," he told Sabahi. "Also, the government must come up with a clear plan that is free of corruption to ensure confidence from the donors that provide support to the troops."

Nur said it was especially important for the Somali National Army to take the lead and use its own forces to retain control of al-Shabaab strongholds.

"Even if AMISOM liberates some towns, it cannot be a national army that will serve for a long time," he said. "The Somali government needs to build the national army."

He urged the government to build up the public's confidence in its ability before launching a large-scale military offensive against al-Shabaab.

"The government's forces have to behave like a national army instead of resembling a militia that is harming the public and putting up [illegal] checkpoints," Nur said, adding that uniting the various armed militias in the country is another challenge.

The government also has to find a solution for preventing illegal weapons from falling into the wrong hands, he said.

"If the sale of illegal arms [in city markets] is not stopped it can lead to al-Shabaab buying a lot of weapons undetected [and] they will not be defeated as a consequence," he said.

'The government must provide governance'

Colonel Abdullahi Aadan Irro, who served in the army and national police during the Barre regime, said the biggest obstacle the government faces is how to stabilise areas after it liberates them from al-Shabaab.

"At first it would be necessary for military forces that are well equipped with weapons, health [supplies] and food rations to free the land, which is something the government does not have the ability to do at the moment," he told Sabahi.

"After that, the government should deploy [members] of police, intelligence service [agency] and the justice department to the liberated land. Thereafter, it should provide social services such as healthcare, education and other essential services in the regions," he said. "The government is not capable of that, and so that is a challenge."

Irro said providing social services to the public would encourage them to support the government with confidence. "When the government captures an area and manages it as a militia without providing any services and then leaves, it [creates] problems for the residents," he said.

In Hudur, for example, he said many residents were killed by al-Shabaab for supporting the government and its allies after Ethiopia withdrew its troops in 2013, a year after it had liberated the town. "Similarly, Ahlu Sunna wal Jamaa militia and Ethiopian forces captured El Bur and then withdrew. People were killed in El Bur."

Truly freeing Somalia of al-Shabaab will require not only the liberation of territories under their grip, but also plans for long-term stability and sustainable governance, he said.

In that endeavour, however, Irro said the government could face challenges from local politicians who want to hastily declare regional administrations in the liberated areas.

"When a government frees an area without defining how it will become part of the federal system, it will create conflict between the residents of the region and the government," he said. "Kismayo was freed in a hasty manner without setting a governance structure. That is why the government has been crippled for the last year over the Kismayo dispute."

Cautious optimism for eliminating al-Shabaab

For his part, retired Colonel Hussein Siyad Qorgab, who served in the army before the collapse of the military-led government in 1991, said the current administration made strides in re-establishing diplomatic relations with Somalia's international partners last year and is poised to tackle insecurity this year.

"I am optimistic that there will be success this year if the focus is on security and stability," he told Sabahi. "[One year] is enough time for re-establishing peace."

But Irro said the government should not rush into freeing al-Shabaab-controlled areas without having a concrete plan.

"A sequential plan has to be prepared at first to think about stabilisation and providing social services and justice before an area is recaptured," he said. "Areas under the control of the government are not stable now, so what meaning would it have for the government to launch another attack?"

"Even if it takes a few years, the government has to create a proper stabilisation plan for the country before it recaptures new areas," Irro said.