Monday, December 16, 2013
Armed extremist groups in North and West Africa may have pledged
allegiance to Al-Qaeda's vision of global jihad, but they act
independently of its core command and have yet to make good on threats
to strike the West.Counterterrorism experts meeting in Washington
noted an increase in anti-Western rhetoric from groups in the Sahel,
Nigeria and Somalia, but said that African militant groups were still
fighting local wars.
And the United States and its allies should
be cautious, they warned, of intervening in these struggles and giving
African Islamists a reason to expand their campaigns to target European
and American interests.
Al-Qaeda's Yemeni franchise, once locked
in a local struggle, is now an international threat that has put parcel
bombs on planes and trained a Nigerian to make a failed suicide attack
on a passenger jet.
"The movements in Africa -- they all enjoy the
Al-Qaeda brand, they love the franchise. It gives them a certain
panache," said Michael Hayden, former director of the US Central
Intelligence Agency.
"But I'm not sure they want to become real
enemies of the United States and they want to commit to the global
Islamic caliphate," he added, referring to late Al-Qaeda figurehead
Osama bin Laden's goal of a single Muslim empire.
Hayden was
speaking alongside other counterterrorism experts at The Jamestown
Foundation's annual conference on terrorism, held Thursday.
While
bin Laden lived for a while in Sudan and boasted that his fighters
helped train the Somali militias to shoot down US helicopters, his
successors appear to have no direct operational control of their African
supporters.
Some groups, including the North African offshoot
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, had pledged allegiance to their late
"sheikh," but bin Laden's deputy and successor Egyptian militant Ayman
al-Zawahiri does not have the same star power.
"The jihadist
movement in Africa is clearly not controlled by al-Zawahiri, if he
controls anything," said Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council think tank.
"But the Al-Qaeda brand helps some local groups to distinguish themselves from other local competitors.
"It
gives them a bigger sense of meaning to attract young people and in
some cases the Al-Qaeda cachet helps them secure funding from overseas,
especially the Gulf," he explained.
The African groups'
ideological independence reflects their roots in different regional
struggles, and has allowed them to latch onto and exploit causes such as
Tuareg nationalism in Mali and northern Nigeria's resentment of corrupt
governance.
But it also limits their real influence beyond their home areas, and even among diaspora African groups in the West.
From
core Al-Qaeda's point of view, groups like the Sahel's AQIM, Somalia's
Shebab and Nigeria's Boko Haram and Ansaru have a use mainly as
propaganda for a movement sometimes seen as on the back foot.
"It
serves al-Zawahiri to make the world believe he has more influence that
he really has. He is a lonely man sitting in a house somewhere," said
Pham.
"He has greater perception of impact if he can claim credit or partial credit for all these independent actors in Africa."
This
view is shared by French terrorism expert Jean-Pierre Filiu, who told
AFP: "There is no operational unity or coordinated command in Africa,
these groups are linked only by the same style of jihadist propaganda."
So
what should the West's response be? If African conflicts are left to
fester, might local militias one day transform into international terror
threats? Or would intervening cause them to turn their guns on the West
straight away?
"The question we have to ask is: what is the
appropriate way to deal with these groups?" asked Hayden, who led the
CIA between 2006 and 2009.
"These guys in the tribal regions of
Pakistan -- they are already committed to killing us if they can. We
don't need to avoid making them an enemy, they are an enemy. There is no
problem with putting an American face on dealing with that group.
"But
in Africa, they are not quite global caliphate kind of folks yet, not
quite targeting the US yet. So do we want to accelerate that process by
too quickly putting an American face on dealing with those groups or do
we want to risk waiting too long?
"It's not an easy kind of decision," he admitted.
And this caution in Washington is matched on the new African battlefields of today.
France
has not hesitated to take the fight to AQIM militants in Mali nor, in
recent days, to send troops to try to put a halt to fighting and
massacres in the Central African Republic that could be seized upon by
Islamists.
But thus far, the far bigger US military has limited itself to providing logistical support.