Al-Qaida's senior leadership has a diminished ability to direct global
terror operations but the threat from loosely linked affiliates and
individuals radicalized by its "infectious ideas" is becoming more
sophisticated, U.N. experts said Wednesday.
In a report to the Security Council, the panel monitoring U.N. sanctions
against al-Qaida pointed to the growing sophistication and reach of
terrorist propaganda on the Internet. It also pointed to recent attacks
in Boston, London and Paris that highlight the "persistent challenge" of
terrorist acts committed by individuals or small groups and the
emergence of a strong al-Qaida presence in Syria's civil war.
"Individuals and cells associated with al-Qaida and its affiliates
continue to innovate with regard to targets, tactics and technology,"
the report said.
"While the threat posed by al-Qaida as a global terrorist organization
has declined, the threat posed by its affiliates and its infectious
ideas persists," it said.
The report was written before the Obama administration's decision to
close 19 U.S. embassies and consulates in 16 countries in the Middle
East and Africa, triggered by an intercepted secret message between
al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahri and his deputy in Yemen about plans for a
major terror attack.
But the U.N. experts' assessment largely coincides with the Obama
administration's stance on al-Qaida.
U.S. State Department spokesman Jen Psaki said Tuesday that despite the
recent embassy closures, the administration believes "the leadership of
the al-Qaida core has been weakened, decimated."
"But we remain concerned about the threat from affiliates," Psaki said.
The U.N. experts said the waning influence of al-Qaida's leaders is
evident in al-Zawahri's unsuccessful attempts to mediate internal
conflicts between al-Qaida and Jabhat al-Nusra, an affiliate of al-Qaida
in Iraq that has been fighting against the Syrian government.
Al-Zawahri, who replaced Osama bin Laden, also was unable to end
infighting within Somalia's al-Shabab militants.
"A degraded senior leadership based in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
region continues to issue statements, but demonstrates little ability to
direct operations through centralized command and control," the experts
said.
Nonetheless, the experts said, "its rhetoric and its calls for attacks
continue to mobilize violent radicals, regardless of where they are
based."
As a result, they said "al-Qaida affiliates pursue autonomous agendas
even as they draw on al-Qaida branding."
The 31-page report by the U.N. experts provides a lengthy discussion of
al-Qaida affiliates, saying some have gained traction by taking
advantage of local conflicts in countries like Syria and Yemen while
others are losing influence because of military operations or political
dialogue.
In Mali and Somalia, military operations "have significantly diminished
the operating space available to affiliates" while in the Philippines,
peace talks have reduced the influence of al-Qaida affiliates, it said.
"However, the diversification of al-Qaida affiliates has not reduced the
threat that they pose, to civilians, national governments or selected
targets in the international community," the experts said. "These
attacks are largely contained within the operating areas of each
affiliate."
The experts said al-Qaida affiliates can train recruits, innovate in
planning for attacks, and carry out operations.
The Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba continues to provide
advanced terrorist training, including on improvised explosive devices,
they said, while Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb has developed
significant expertise in kidnapping for ransom.
Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula remains a major source of
technological innovation and, along with al-Shabab, continues to support
high-quality digital propaganda operations, the experts said.
The experts stressed that al-Qaida's "rhetoric and its calls for attacks
continue to mobilize violent radicals, regardless of where they are
based."
They called for intensified efforts to implement a U.N. travel ban,
especially against those trying to promote networking among al-Qaida
affiliates, which can "increase the threat by transferring skills and
knowledge as well as creating new networks or strengthening existing
ones."
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