Strategy Page
Thursday, August 01, 2013
The peacekeeping force now
consists of 4,040 Kenyan, 6,223 Ugandan, 5,432 Burundian, 850 Sierra
Leonean and 999 Djiboutian troops. There are also several thousand
Ethiopian troops who constantly move back and forth across the Somali
border as needed.
There are a few hundred other foreign military and
paramilitary personnel in Somalia, but no one will officially admit they
are there (despite the occasional photo). In all, al Shabaab remnants
now face some foreign peacekeepers and a growing number of fairly
reliable local police and soldiers. Al Shabaab has become little more
than a terrorist organization, using extortion, kidnapping and theft to
survive and finance enough attacks to keep its name and reputation in
the news.
The new Somali government is having problems collecting taxes.
So far this year five tax collectors have been killed, compared to ten
for all of last year. The businesses who are expected to pay taxes have
had two decades of unpleasant experience with clan militias, warlords
and terrorist groups “collecting taxes” and have developed clever, and
sometimes violent ways to avoid paying. The government tax collectors
are seen as little different from the criminal groups when it comes to
extorting money from merchants. Establishing a fair and acceptable tax
system would be a major achievement for the new government.
The UN accused Eritrea of paying some Somali warlords to help
keep al Shabaab going. Eritrea was also accused of bribing Somali
government officials to obtain information about the government and to
maintain some access to government officials. This is believed to have
played a part in the government releasing al Shabaab prisoners last
year. Eritrea also passes on information obtained from Somali officials
to al Shabaab, which has long been supplied with cash and weapons from
Eritrea. The UN also continues to release audits of aid money that show
Somali officials continuing to steal most of the money they have control
over. For this reason as much aid as possible is spent under close
supervision by foreign aid officials.
Some Somali pirates, frustrated at over a year of failure (in
the face of more effective naval patrols and better security on merchant
ships) have switched to providing armed guards for foreign ships
fishing illegally off the Somali coast. The payoff is not huge, but it’s
steady cash and relatively safe. The main danger is from other pirates
attempting to rob the fishing ships or hijack them. Many pirates have
returned to smuggling (people to Yemen or goods into Somalia). Many
pirates are former fishermen and have returned to that business.
July 30, 2013: The government signed a deal with The Atlantic
Marine and Offshore Group (a Dutch company) to organize and run a coast
guard to protect ships off the Somali coast and deal with smuggling and
other illegal activities. No details on how or when were given.
July 29, 2013: Al Shabaab released two of three Kenyan
officials they had kidnapped 18 months ago. This was a negotiated deal
and no other details were revealed. It was claimed that no ransom was
paid.
July 27, 2013: In Mogadishu a car bomb went off outside the
residential compound of the Turkish embassy, killing a Turkish
policeman, two other security personnel and a local civilian were
killed. Two other terrorist gunmen, who attempted to get into the
compound, were shot dead. Al Shabaab took credit for the attack and the
Turks said they were staying.
July 24, 2013: In Mogadishu a car bomb went off in a failed
attempt to kill a Somali politician. One person died and two were
wounded.
July 21, 2013: Ethiopia announced that the recent withdrawal
of its troops from Baidoa was carried out because the AU peacekeepers
now had control of the town and that security there was good. Other
Ethiopian troops in Somalia would stay until they could be replaced by
government or peacekeeper forces.
July 20, 2013: In Kismayo a land mine intended for peacekeepers instead killed civilian and wounded two others.
July 18, 2013: In Nairobi, Kenya civilians reported what
appeared to be a roadside bomb to police, who came and disarmed it.
There are still pro-al Shabaab Somalis living in Kenya to try to carry
out terrorist attacks to protest Kenyan peacekeeping efforts in Somalia.
Two Spanish aid workers (both doctors) kidnapped in 2011 while
working at a Somali refugee camp in Kenya have been released. This was a
negotiated deal and no other details were revealed. It was claimed that
no ransom was paid.
July 17, 2013: In Kismayo two journalists were wounded while
covering a landmine explosion just outside the city. It is believed that
one of the two militias fighting for control of the city were
responsible.
July 16, 2013: In Kismayo a roadside bomb wounded three Kenyan peacekeepers.