When fear enters the heart of man at hearing the name of candidates and the reading of laws that are proposed, then the State is safe, but when these things are heard without regard, then the state is at risk. A State worthy of the name has no friends - only interests.
In the realm of international relations, the State is the most prominent actor in the international political system. The concept of the State as lately analysed shows that there is a possibility for the erosion of the power of the sovereign State to the extent that its significance as an international player ceases, especially as has been observed in Africa.
In January 1991, after 15 years of worsening political decay and three years of civil war, the final remnants of the Somali State disintegrated. In its wake arose a fractious mosaic of militia fiefdoms, Islamist enclaves, mafiaesque commercial empires and large zones of lawless, predatory banditry. The prolonged civil war and marauding warlordism that followed the collapse of Siad Barre’s regime left most of the country in ruins and spawned widespread famine in the southern portion of the country.
This descent into chaos was so profound that even a massive international intervention, replete with more than 30,000 troops and a multibillion-dollar budget was unable to promote national reconciliation and resuscitate the failed Somali State. When the UN Operation in Somalia withdrew in 1995, Somalia was left as a collection of fluid, highly localised polities that together fail to add up to anything approaching a conventional State and in which sustainable peace has been elusive for all but a few fortunate regions.
The al-Shabaab, latest of the authors of the violence in Somalia, have been the al-Qaeda ambassadors. Al-Qaeda’s continuous grip on the activities of al-Shabaab had given them such manner of organisation that they appointed managers, trainers, financiers to manage the affairs of al-Shabaab and had opened up training camps within Somalia. The al-Shabaab, therefore, had hoped that AMISOM would also fail. This has not come to pass.
Man by nature is resistant to change; little wonder that after birth, a baby will cry signifying resistance to exit from the comfort of the mother’s womb. Ironically, challenging as life on earth may be, desirous of the heavenly life as many are, no one at least among ordinary mortals has freely chosen to meet his/her creator sooner than later.
Bearing in mind the above truism, the al-Shabaab militants, so used to benefiting from lawlessness, are failing to come to terms with the loss of Mogadishu city. Admittedly, they have employed propaganda so well as to make the innocent, the cowards and those against peace believe that these extremists are invisible, pro-people and fighting a just war. Can you imagine!
A just war of amputating civilians, stoning them to death!
When
AMISOM strategically forced them out of Bakara Market, they claimed
they had withdrawn from Mogadishu. Assuming the claim above has some bit
of truth, why then were there incidents of serious resistance after the
exit of Bakara and other areas?
What about the various attacks they have made against the AMISOM defences but all ending with massive causalities on the al-Shabaab side? Thus, al-Shabaab did not pull out of Mogadishu; they were defeated and forced to flee Mogadishu.
In their unfruitful and ungodly efforts to reassert their viability, al-Shabaab have given themselves victories in battles that did not occur in the first place. Take the example of the so-called 80 peace keepers they paraded some timeback, when there had not been any serious engagement with them that time.
Last year, when they attacked a position held by the Burundi contingent, they again claimed a figure of 70 or 80 that they had killed. In another claim, when two of the terrorist infiltrated a defence of one of the companies in the steel factory area (south west of the city) the al-Shabaab claimed to have killed 80 Ugandans!
Poor terrorists, they think UPDF are sardines, heaped in a container, which should be decimated by one blow! Technically, heavy casualties are sustained by any force after a sustained, serious battle lasting the whole day, even then, the attacker must be superior in strength both numerically and in equipment. Al-Shabaab is not superior by any stretch of imagination, let alone the ability to withstand the UPDF might.
The al-Shabaab was used to being the law and authority unto themselves, no wonder they controlled the entire Somalia economy. To accept change is a day dream the al-Shabaab wish to end soon hence the incessant efforts to destabilise Somalia. It is indeed factual that the terrorists have suffered enormous losses at the hands of both AMISOM and the TFG forces.