Irrigation, an alternative to rain-fed agriculture,
is yet to be fully exploited in the region. In Kenya, for example, more
than 300,000 acres of productive land remain unutilised due to lack of a
proper irrigation policy.
Statistics from the National Irrigation Board indicate that the country
has an irrigable potential of more than 600,000 hectares but less than
150,000 hectares have been developed. In Tanzania, only two per cent of
the total irrigable land is under irrigation and three per cent in
Uganda.
Instances of failed rains, due to the topsy-turvy
weather patterns, are no longer isolated. A 2011 study by the Centre for
Forestry at the University of California, Berkeley, found rainfall in
the Sahel, of which Kenya and Somalia are part of, has almost halved
since 1954.
However, it is not gloom for all the East African
countries. The meteorologists, who recently met in Rwanda under the
auspices of IGAD, forecast that Tanzania will be the biggest benefactor
of the long rains season. The western part of the country will receive
above normal rainfall, while the rest will record normal rainfall.
Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda will receive normal or
adequate rainfall, according to the IGAD Climate Prediction and
Application Centre. In Kenya, only the western and southwestern parts
will receive good rains. A huge swathe of the country extending into
neighbouring Somalia will receive inadequate rainfall.
Senior meteorologist at the Kenya Meteorological
Department Peter Ambenje, blames the sea surface temperature anomaly
over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans for the predicament Kenya
and Somalia find themselves in.
Generally, warm sea surface temperatures over the southwest
Indian Ocean basin are conducive for the formation of Tropical Cyclones
(TCs) during the March to May period. However, the TC presence over
Malagasy and Mozambique Channel have a tendency to divert
rainfall–bearing winds from the country and cause dry spells.
“As a result the presence of TC in those areas will
affect rainfall performance in different parts of the country, since it
will deviate the wind to the ocean and also slow down rainfall-bearing
winds blowing inland,” adds Mr Ambenje.
The TC season usually stretches from November 15 to
April 30 of the following year. According to the meteorological
department, in the 2011-12 season, three TCs and six Tropical Storms
have so far been reported, which is not good news for Kenya. In
addition, weak La-Niña conditions (cooler than average SSTs) are still
present over the eastern and central Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“Slightly cooler than average SSTs were also
observed over western Equatorial Indian Ocean in January and February, a
situation that has weakened the rainfall generating mechanism,
resulting in dry weather conditions,” says Mr Ambenje.
Unlike the situation in Kenya, the weather system —
influenced by the Congo and Lake Victoria — responsible for rainfall in
other East African member states is expected to operate well. It is the
reason why other East African member states are expected to record
adequate rains in their breadbasket areas.
Though the drought conditions in northern,
northeastern and southern parts of Kenya have significantly improved,
the UN warns that the country is not out of the woods yet. The
organisation, in its Horn of Africa Crisis Situation Report, maintains
that food crisis still looms in Kenya and Somalia as a result of the dry
spells and the poor rains forecast for the coming months. “Things may
have improved, but the few gains made are slowly being reversed,” the
report warns.
Even though Kenya’s Ministry of Agriculture
maintains that food security situation is expected to remain stable for
the next six months, it concedes that market prices of major staples,
especially wheat, beans and maize are likely to remain higher compared
with long term average.
“With national population adjusted to 40 million
people, the current maize stocks are expected to last up to June with a
surplus of about 5,549,209 bags of maize,” says the Ministry of
Agriculture in its latest report on the country’s food situation.
As at February, the national maize stocks stood at
18,943,575 bags down from 19,042,455 bags, a month before. Since 2011,
the maize prices have been higher than estimated long term average of
Ksh2,000 ($24) per 90-Kg bag.
Kari plans to distribute 700 metric tonnes of seeds of drought-
tolerant crops to farmers to help increase their farm production.
Apart from planting drought resistant crops, scientists believe the full
implementation of the 2003 Maputo Declaration, in which all the East
African member states promised to allocate at least 10 percent of the
national budgetary resources to agriculture and rural development, would
help the economies tackle perennial food shortages linked to climate
change.