Thursday, August 04, 2011
the new nation of South Sudan, according to a ranking by global analysts Maplecroft.
The consultancy’s latest terrorism risk index also assesses the threat to be rising in Yemen, Iran, Uganda, Libya, Egypt and Nigeria. Maplecroft said yesterday increased dangers seen in Yemen and Uganda were caused by violence associated with al- Qaeda, those in Iran stemmed from attacks by the Sunni Muslim rebel group Jundollah, and those in Egypt and Libya originated in terrorist and criminal attempts to exploit the political unrest of the Arab Spring.
Nigeria is beset by militant raids in the Niger Delta, by sectarian violence and by radical Islamist attacks in the north.
The top four rankings were unchanged from Maplecroft’s previous survey issued in November last year, but South Sudan, which came into being last month, replaced the Palestinian Territories at number five due to the high average number killed in each attack there.
The UK company’s index rates 198 countries on the number, frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks, plus the likelihood of mass casualties occurring. While based on historical data, it is intended as a forward- looking assessment. The survey’s reporting period of April 2010 to March 2011 partly overlaps with the June 2009 to June 2010 data used in its previous ranking.
It defines terrorism as the "calculated and purposeful use of violence employed to influence the attitudes and behaviour of people and governments", and takes its raw data from the US National Counterterrorism Centre’s worldwide incidents tracking system.
Maplecroft sees 20 states at "extreme risk". Apart from the top five, these are: Yemen 6, Palestinian Territories 7, Democratic Republic of Congo 8, Central African Republic 9, Colombia 10, Algeria 11, Thailand 12, Philippines 13, Russia 14, Sudan, 15, Iran 16, Burundi 17, India 18, Nigeria 19 and Israel 20.
There was an increased risk from regional offshoots of al- Qaeda. Revenge attacks in Pakistan after the killing of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden there in May showed his death had not led to a short-term fall in militancy.
Uganda jumped 20 places to 22 after bombings in Kampala in July last year killed 79 people. The attacks marked the first strikes on foreign soil by the Somali al-Shabaab.
The only European country at high risk was Greece, assessed at 27, due to left-wing groups. The survey period did not cover an attack in Norway by anti-Muslim zealot Anders Breivik.