AU force regains upper hand in Mogadishu

At one point, according to one foreign observer, only the Ugandan AU troops stood their ground to fight off the Al Qaeda-inspired Shebab fighters, as government forces fled.

On August 23, the Shebab insurgent group announced the launch of a fresh operation to "to eliminate the invading Christians and their apostate government."

For around 10 days, waves of Shebab fighters attacked African Union (AMISOM) and government positions to cries of "Allahu akbar" (God is greatest).

Most of the fighting was concentrated in the seaside capital's northeastern neighbourhoods.

At one point, they threatened Maka al-Mukarama, a strategic thoroughfare linking the harbour to the airport and AMISOM's main lifeline.

"For 48 hours, there was a very alarming period of swaying," said a foreign Mogadishu-based official. "It was a complete fiasco for the TFG (transitional federal government)".

Soldiers, militiamen and to a lesser degree allied forces from the moderate Sufi outfit -- all deployed along different segments of the frontline -- "abandoned most of their positions," the official said.

Under Shebab pressure, some vacated their positions without a fight, while others retreated frantically when they ran out of ammunition.

"At one point, only the Ugandans (the main contingent in AMISOM) were fighting," the foreign observer said.

"Fighting has escalated since August 24. This was characterised by TFG forces withdrawing from their positions," admitted Colonel Mickael Ondoga, who commands the Ugandan force.

"When they ran, they exposed us and made our positions more vulnerable, we had to move to take tactical advantage," he added.

Ondoga explained that AMISOM deployed tanks and other armoured vehicles -- the kind of equipment the Shebab don't have -- and punched back.

"The TFG withdrew from a dozen positions... Most of these positions have been reoccupied (by AMISOM) and now the government forces have started coming back to these positions," he said.

After a week-long lull in the fighting, it emerged clearly that the Shebab had failed to reach their military objectives of capturing the presidential compound and cutting the crucial Maka al-Mukarama supply line.

Shebab have nevertheless moved closer, and are now just a couple of blocks from the avenue, presenting a serious threat to this crucial supply line that cuts right through the middle of the city centre, and forcing AMISOM to set up two new positions there.

"This offensive was a failure," AMISOM spokesman Ba-Hoku Barigye claimed.

"The Shebab have suffered heavy casualities, hospitals around Mogadishu, Kismayo and Baidoa are full of injured," he added.

"The enemy was not able to chase us from a single of our positions and on the contrary, we have advanced in the city," he said.

Another Mogadishu-based expert, who asked to remain anonymous, argued that the insurgent's thwarted offensive could prompt some Shebab leaders to advocate a new strategy: they favour spectacular operations against high-value targets rather than territorial warfare.

"It was a bloodbath... The meagre results they derived from this offensive is causing some tension within the Shebab military leadership," the analyst said.

The TFG forces' disorderly retreat last month however confirmed that President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's government was on its last legs, unlikely to breed a force able to take over security duties from AMISOM.

"We are riding a dead horse," was the uncompromising assessment made by one AMISOM's political officials.