June 19, 2009
By William Maclean, Security Correspondent
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LONDON June 19
(Reuters) - Under pressure in his Pakistan enclaves, Osama bin Laden is
facing a familiar quandary: Where to go next? The answer is unlikely to
be Yemen or Somalia, despite their new prominence as regional al Qaeda
sanctuaries.U.S. drone attacks and a looming Pakistan army offensive against one of al Qaeda's main allies in a northwestern tribal area have stirred speculation that bin Laden's men are seeking a less risky refuge for their anti-Western campaign.
But simply leaving Pakistan's remote Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) could expose the world's most wanted man and his entourage of planners and bodyguards to satellite detection and the curious gaze of a local population of uncertain loyalty.
"The moment that al Qaeda has to leave the FATA, that is the end of al Qaeda as an organisation," said Thomas Hegghammer, a research fellow at Harvard University.
Yemen was "a pretty good safe haven" for lower-level members of al Qaeda provided the group did not get too strong and did not bring in the leadership. The presence of senior figures would provoke a tough security response from the government and the United States, he said.
The U.S. has fired missiles at Islamist militants in Yemen and Somalia before, and would be widely expected to do so again if a substantial al Qaeda influx were spotted in either country.
WAVE OF ATTACKS
"It's conceivable al Qaeda could move. But it would be hard to find safe haven in another state," said David Claridge, managing director of Janusian Security Risk Management.
At first sight Yemen and Somalia, as well as parts of central Asia and Afghanistan, might look suitable new havens.
Expanding militancy in Yemen and Somalia is a successful example of an al Qaeda effort to spawn affiliates on several continents to attack the "infidel" West and its local allies.
On Thursday, hardline Islamists allied to al Qaeda killed Somali Security Minister Omar Hashi Aden and 30 others in the deadliest suicide bomb attack yet in the Horn of Africa country.
Neighbouring Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, has seen a new wave of al Qaeda attacks in the past year including a suicide bombing that killed four South Korean tourists in March.
Yemen is bin Laden's ancestral home and Yemenis figure prominently in al Qaeda ranks. Bin Laden once praised "Muslim lions" in Somalia for being able to "grind America's pride into dust" in a 1993 clash with U.S. forces.
And moving camp would be nothing new for bin Laden, his number two Ayman al-Zawahri or other senior associates.
Earlier in his career Zawahri sought sanctuary in several states, including Yemen. Bin Laden spent four years in Sudan before being expelled in 1996 and going back to Afghanistan, where he had fought Soviet occupation troops in the 1980s.
But that was before the 9/11 attacks and vastly heightened Western security efforts against Islamist militancy.
"A FISH OUT OF WATER"
Both men had to move at uncomfortably short notice when the United States attacked the Taliban in late 2001.
Raphael Perl, an official of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said moving out of FATA would put al Qaeda at risk because militants were at their most vulnerable when in transit from one safe haven to another.
"It's like a fish out of water," he said.
U.S. officials have told journalists that some al Qaeda fighters have begun moving to Yemen, a neighbour of oil giant Saudi Arabia, and Somalia because Pakistan had become too risky.
But Gregory Johnsen, a Yemen specialist at Princeton University, said he doubted there was firm evidence showing recent militant arrivals in Yemen were from Pakistan.
Most new fighters coming into Yemen are probably Yemenis coming home from Iraq and Saudi Arabia after participating in Islamist uprisings in those countries in 2003-06, experts say.
And if any al Qaeda fighters really have made the journey from Pakistan, it will not have been as an organised directive from al Qaeda's core leadership, several analysts say
"The idea of an operations room deciding who goes where is not right," said Claridge. "These are networks within networks, of friends, associates. It's more informal. It's scattergun."
"Al Qaeda encourages people to do things, it doesn't necessarily order people to do things."
Incomers into Somalia appeared to be Yemenis, other Arabs and some Somalis from the diaspora, an expert said. As with the Yemen arrivals, most appear to be foot soldiers, not senior men.
For al Qaeda, FATA still has attractions, despite mounting risks. Its members have lived there for years, weapons are plentiful and few of Pakistan's federal laws apply.
Outside interference is resented and above all the presence of U.S. forces in neighbouring Afghanistan acts as a magnet for militants from many Muslim communities around the world.
Perl of OSCE said he expected al Qaeda would adapt to the pressure in Pakistan as it had adapted to earlier challenges.
"The challenge (for the West) is to stay ahead of them in the adaptation process -- two moves ahead, not just one."
SOURCE: Reuters, June 19, 2009