Monday, May 21, 2007
- Image: Abdurrahman Warsameh, ISN
The new warlord-turned Mogadishu major promises peace and security, but some analysts question whether he can deliver and whether other US- and Ethiopian-backed figures can earn the people's trust.
By Abdurrahman Warsameh in Mogadishu (21/05/07)As attacks on government officials, African Union (AU) peacekeepers and Somali and Ethiopian forces intensify, the new mayor of the capital Mogadishu, warlord Mohamed Dheere, says the latest attack on Sunday was a foiled attempt on his own life.
At least two civilians were killed in the attack, according to the mayor's office, and one suspected insurgent was shot dead by the mayor's bodyguards.
The conflict in Mogadishu reached its peak of violence between 12 March and 26 April, during which period at least 1,670 people were killed. Since earlier this year, at least 400,000 Mogadishu residents have fled the capital, though many have begun to return since the appointment of Dheere as mayor.
In a press conference shortly after the attack, Dheere accused Islamists forces, who are still active in the capital, of orchestrating the foiled assassination attempt. He promised the government would take steps against the insurgents who he claimed were being funded from the Bakara market, the city's largest general marketplace. In general, the mayor has expressed skepticism about the business community's role in supporting the Islamists. The mayor said homes being used to organize insurgent attacks would be raided and confiscated by the government.
Promises of security, shadowy pasts
Mohamed Omar Habeb, better known as Mohamed Dheere, was sworn in as mayor of Mogadishu and governor of the Banadir region on 4 May. Dheere - a former warlord who at one time was on the payroll of the CIA - promised to bring peace and security to the seaside city of two million within three months.
But Dheere's shadowy past continues to haunt him as he tries to secure and rebuild one of the world's most chaotic and lawless cities, and some question whether this is just another reign of terror for the capital.
Only a day after his inauguration, the new mayor ordered the police to demolish kiosks and other makeshift street-corner shops with sledgehammers and bulldozers in an attempt to boost security – a move that has left many poor residents with no way of make a living.
Fadumo Bile, a greengrocer and single mother of 10, says she was given no warning that her shop would be demolished and now has no means of supporting her family. Her husband was killed in the recent fighting between Ethiopian-backed Somali government forces and clan insurgents in Mogadishu, she told ISN Security Watch.
People in the capital, returning from their shelters in tents on the outskirts of the Mogadishu and beyond, were ordered to report to the authorities and hand over any weapons in their possession.
Some families in the capital have reported missing members thought to be held by security forces for having alleged links with Islamists or being labeled "radical" sympathizers.
Veiled women in the streets of the capital have been rounded up and their veils forcibly removed and burnt by the police, an action later condemned by the new mayor, who said he had not given the police such orders. Some of the women complained of harassment by security forces who say the veil could be used by "insurgent elements" to disguise themselves before launching attacks.
Before his latest appointment, Dheere had been the feared mayor of the town of Jowhar in the Middle Shabelle region, 90 kilometers north of Mogadishu since 2002 until he was driven out by the Union of Islamic Courts, an Islamist group that rose to power in mid-2006 but was in turn ousted in December that same year by Somali government forces with help from the Ethiopian army.
Dheere’s tenure as mayor of Jowhar was a controversial one. He is hailed by his supporters as an example of strong leadership and stability in a lawless country, but critics accuse him of heavy-handedness and of dictatorial leanings.
Few choices: warlords or Islamists
There are consistent reports that the US government has tacitly expressed its support for the inclusion in government of Somali warlords, particularly former members of the now defunct CIA-backed anti-terrorism alliance.
Another warlord and former member of the alliance, Abdi Hassan Awale Qaybdiid, was named National Police chief. Analysts also predict that Mohamed Qanyare Afrah, a member of parliament and a former warlord from the anti-terrorism alliance, will be awarded a top job in the government for his active role in the alliance.
The Somali people have suffered over a decade and a half of lawlessness and chaos since the 1992 overthrow of late dictator Mohamed Siad Barre, with only a brief six-month reprieve when the Islamists gained control of the capital and much of the country last year. Though Islamist rule and its severe punishments for criminals and political opponents alike was perhaps not the elixir Somalis sought, a break from the everyday violence, however brief, was welcomed by many.
Some essential services had been returned, such as health care, and the international airport and seaport were reopened as the radical Islamists sidelined the warlords that had held the Somali people hostage for so long.
Now, what analysts disagree on, is whether a return of the warlords to power, particularly those pushed by Ethiopia and backed by the US, will mean a return to the endless violence, to the pre-Islamist phase. The people also seem to be of two minds, with many who fled the capital returning since the new mayor's promise of security and stability.
While some believe that only the strong hand of former warlords like Dheere can make anything happen in Somalia, others believe it will be a repeat of the past.
Daud Yalaho, an analyst and long-term resident of Jowhar, told ISN Security Watch that Dheere had done what other Mogadishu warlords like him had failed to do: bring security to the people he leads.
“Mohamed Dheere has shown that he is capable of bringing stability and returning essential services to his people,” Yalaho contends. “That is enough test to make clear his credentials for mayorship for this city that requires firm leadership and his ability to deal with its multitude of problems.”
Yahya Elmi, a Somali human rights activist, disagrees, saying the choice of Dheere for mayor could be the biggest mistake the government has ever made.
“Since he was a leading member of the infamous Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter Terrorism and has been and may still be on the CIA payroll, I think he is too tainted to lead a national capital,” Yahya told ISN Security Watch.
According to Yahya, Dheere’s poor human rights record during his days as warlord and as mayor of Jowhar and his links with a foreign intelligence agency will not earn him the trust of the people.
Khalif Dirie, a commentator on Somalia, told ISN Security Watch that the current government, which is composed of mainly former warlords, seems to lack the moral authority to govern the Somali people who have suffered a lot under the rule of these same class of leaders.
“The Islamists have at least had the trust of the people they were governing; they won their hearts and minds so were able to lead them restore some of the essential services like the rebuilding and reopening of the Mogadishu International airport and seaport,” Dirie said.
Abdurrahman Warsameh is a correspondent for ISN Security Watch in Mogadishu.