By: Abdirahman Aynte
Fellow, The Center for Independent Media
Minneapolis, MN (HOL)- Somalia was once Africa’s success story, but a combination of “balkanization” and a fatal social AIDS called “warlordism” reduced the country to become the main source of protracted conflict, according to Prof. Abdi Ismail Samatar, a geography and global studies professor at the University of Minnesota.
He was a keynote speaker Thursday at Headliners, a monthly program sponsored by the College of Education at the University of Minnesota.
Back in the 60s Somalia was a beacon and a champion of democracy in Africa. Power was democratically transferred. It took 26 years for the next African nation, Zambia, to achieve that goal, according to Prof. Samatar.
But things got wildly out of control since then. A dictator took over, a civil war followed, an acute famine starved thousands to death, a U.S.-led mission failed, tiny “Balkans” fought over meager resources and a trail of self-anointed “transitional administrations” emerged and disappeared, until the current government was improvised in Kenya in 2004. Warlords, who long agreed to disagree, briefly agreed to the new government, but soon disagreed on it.
Then, out of nowhere, the U.S. threw its dog into the fight. Clandestine services were bankrolling some of those notorious warlords to capture terror suspects. That backfired and gave an unprecedented rise to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which soon controlled much of the country.
In a classic Somali style, where the power doesn’t rest with one group for a while, the UIC was crushed by the mighty Ethiopian military firepower over the New Years.
But just when you thought things are finally settling, it’s taking yet another downward spiral.
Prof. Samatar pinpoints key problems.
- Ethiopia, known to many Somalis as an arch enemy of Somalia, has a keen interest in either “dismembering Somalia into clan lines, or establishing a government that’s beholden to it,” said Prof. Samatar.
- The TFG is dominated by blood-stained warlords, chiefly the president “who has no fiber of democracy,” said Prof. Samatar. “TFG has not served a glass of water to a child.”
- The U.S. is “seen as an associate of those warlords and Ethiopia,” both of who have an unrepairable reputation among Somalis.
What’s next?
Prof. Samatar, though he said he’s naturally optimistic, offered a grim assessment.
The U.S. and the European Union, which’s the chief financial backer of the TFG, has been pressuring President Abullahi Yusuf to open an earnest dialogue with his opponents and broaden the TFG.
Increasing the size of TFG, Prof. Samatar said, strikes me as an overkill. The TFG, he added, has more than 50 cabinet ministers. (In comparison, the U.S. has 13.) The Somali parliament has 275 members, all of whom are hand-picked by warlords. (The U.S. has total of 535 members in the Congress.)
“Somalis are told ‘you’re clans, not citizens’,” said Prof. Samatar, who observed the last reconciliation conference in Kenya.
The African Union was also in a marathon to send an 8,000-strong peacekeeping force to Somalia upon the departure of Ethiopians.
That isn’t getting enough traction either. So far, Uganda is the only African country that offered 1,000 soldiers.
Add that to the insurgency that’s getting quite a bit of traction in Mogadishu. Sounds of daily gunfire are back in Mogadishu after eight months of silence under the UIC.
“TFG has neither the integrity nor the caliper to serve Somalis,” said Prof. Samatar.
He also accused Ethiopia of exporting its domestic problems into Somalia. He pointed to the election held last year, in which the Jimmy Carter Center, among other international observers, declared it a major fraud. Hundreds were killed in a subsequent protest and dozens of lawmakers are still locked up.
“It’s a perversion of priorities in Africa,” he said, accusing Ethiopia of planning to replicate an equally repressive regime in Somalia.
Asked if religion is playing a role in the current conflict, Prof. Samatar said it’s not, “but if Ethiopians remain in Somalia, it will.”
He said sources told him that the U.S. is encouraging Ethiopia to retain troops in Somalia.
What’s the way out? A serious political solution, decidedly warlord-averse, is the answer, says Prof. Samatar.
Abdirahman Aynte can be reached at [email protected]