Wednesday, April 11, 2007
As a fragile ceasefire gives both sides time to remobilize and civilians caught in the crossfire time to flee, local analysts say plans are likely underway for a new major offensive that will bring Somalia to its knees.
- Image: Abdurrahman Warsameh, ISN
Commentary by Abdurrahman Warsameh in Mogadishu for ISN Security Watch (10/04/07)
A shaky ceasefire is holding between clan fighters and Ethiopian and Somali government troops in the chaotic Somali capital after four days of bloody conflict that has left an unprecedented trial of death, destruction and displacement of civilians.
The future of the current ceasefire is expected to be decided later today as Hawiye clan elders and Ethiopian officials, after days of delay, are expected to meet to discuss the withdrawal of troops from both sides from their positions so that substantive discussions could be held to resolve the cause of the conflict.
But the atmosphere in Mogadishu is a skeptical one, with many locals fearing that the truce is little more than a tactical move to give both sides time to regroup and rearm - and to give those civilians trapped in their homes time to leave the city before the real battle begins in earnest.
The civilian death toll has led Europe to break ranks with the US and call for an investigation of possible war crimes by Ethiopian and Somali forces in their recent onslaught on clan insurgents in the seaside city of two million.
EU countries could be considered complicit if they do nothing to stop them, according to an EU email obtained by the Associated Press on Friday.
US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer visited the Somali city of Baidoa on Saturday to reiterate Washington's commitment to support the Somali government in its effort to achieve and uphold security and stability there, but did not take issue with civilian casualties or the Ethiopian drive to crack down on clan insurgents in Mogadishu.
Instead, Frazer praised the Somali government and its Ethiopian allies for defeating the Islamists and pledged US$100 million in aid for their efforts.
Four days of death and destruction
This latest fighting erupted last Thursday when Ethiopian troops backing the internationally recognized Somali government attempted to take new positions in the city to crack down on insurgent elements and pacify the capital in time for the scheduled mid-April national reconciliation congress called by the transitional government early in March.
A previous 22 March ceasefire between the two sides was allegedly broken by the Ethiopian move, which led to an escalation in violence in the seaside city.
Ethiopian military officials in Mogadishu, who normally do not speak to local or international media, tend not to make announcements about ceasefire agreements with clan elders but make secret contacts with insurgent leaders to sign truce deals.
Leaders of a major powerful Hawiye clan in the south of Somalia accuse the government of transitional president Abdullahi Yusuf of targeting them for disarmament while other clans in the country maintain their weapons.
The Somali government, in turn, blames remnants of the defeated Islamists, who earlier last year had control over the capital and much of the country for a brief period, for the recent outbreak of violence in the capital. The government claims the Hawiye clan is harboring the Islamists - a claim the clan elders have vehemently denied.
The tally of the dead, injured and displaced has been rising, with new death tolls issued almost daily since the fragile ceasefire was agreed. The death toll during the last four days of fighting has been reported by various organizations as anywhere between 400 and 1,000 and obtaining an accurate toll has proved nearly impossible.
A report issued by a committee set up by Hawiye clan elders in Mogadishu to assess the damage caused by the recent fighting said that almost 1,100 people had been "massacred" by Ethiopian and interim government forces. That figure has not been independently confirmed.
The Somali government and its Ethiopian allies have not bothered to issue any civilian casualty figures, but Ethiopian Prime Minister Melles Zenawi said late last month that his forces "eliminated nearly 200 extremists."
The Elman Human Rights Organization, a Somali human rights group in Mogadishu, estimates that nearly 400 people - mainly civilians - have been killed in the last four days of clashes.
"The tolls were calculated from hospital figures, local groups and burials but do not include Ethiopian soldiers that may have been killed," Sudan Ali Ahmed, Chairman of the rights group told AP on Monday.
The UN refugee agency says some 124,000 people have fled Mogadishu since the beginning of February. In the last six days, another 73,000 reportedly have fled for safety, most of them to neighboring southern regions on buses, trucks, and donkey and hand carts. Those who cannot afford such transportation are walking tens of miles to safety, the agency said.
Hospital sources in Mogadishu told ISN Security Watch on Monday that close to 1,000 people may have been wounded since the start of the fighting on Thursday.
Widespread diarrhea caused by unsafe drinking water has hit both children and adults in camps for the internally displaced in the towns of Afgoye and Marka, south of the Somali capital. Food and essential medical supplies are running out and local and international NGOs warn of an impending humanitarian catastrophe if no aid is made available to the displaced soon.
During the four days of battle, Somali government and Ethiopian troops heavily bombarded a half kilometer stretch of the only "liberated" street in Mogadishu, destroying almost every single house in the area.
Preparing for a major offensive
Local analysts believe that both sides are preparing for a major offensive. Thousands of Ethiopian reinforcement troops arrived in Mogadishu with tanks and heavy artillery. Insurgents are digging trenches in backstreets in Mogadishu’s notorious dangerous alleyways. People in the city, fearing long-drawn street-to-street and house-to-house battles for the control of Mogadishu, are leaving for good.
The Somali government, which says it is not bound by the truce, has called on residents in battle areas to leave as government and Ethiopian forces "would mount a mopping operation to get rid of remnant terrorist elements."
Local analysts also believe that clan insurgents, who have a known capability to shoot down aircraft as was seen on Friday when they downed an Ethiopian helicopter over Mogadishu, have now obtained what they have been lacking for the past four days of fighting: anti-tank mines and rockets.
At best, the international community has been offering lip service to the besieged people of Somalia, who have suffered under the brutal regime of the war lords who are now leaders of the current interim government.
"They deserve to be heard," human rights activist Dahir Omar, told ISN Security Watch in Mogadishu. "The bureaucracy of the UN and the double standards of the west did not help to stop the carnage and the worse to come if the human conscience does not prevail over immoral national interests."
After a brief period of relative stability last year when the Islamists took control of much of the country after 16 years of anarchy, the situation has turned for the worse, with the arrival in Mogadishu of the transitional Somali government backed by Ethiopian airpower and armor.
So for now, the residents of Somalia are hoping that Europe, if not the US, will intervene to stop the bloodshed, rather than offering outright support for Somali and Ethiopian troops as the two allies and the clan insurgents remobilize for a renewed battle. For the residents of Somalia, choosing a side is rather more complicated, as the brutal tactics of government and Ethiopian troops have led to the deaths of hundreds of civilians, while clan insurgents use them as human shields.
And there is even less hope for the planned reconciliation meeting in two weeks time, as warlord chaos continues to gain momentum and the historical animosity between Somalis and Ethiopia make the latter's troop presence a less than stabilizing factor.
Abdurrahman Warsameh is a Mogadishu-based correspondent for ISN Security Watch.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the autho