By Ahmed Raghe Hassan
Tuesday 16 Jan. 2008
Ethiopian tanks rolled into Mogadishu on 28 December, 2006! Backed by the full financial and logistical support of America and elated by the surprisingly swift military victory over the Islamic courts militia; the Addis Ababa junta felt naively complacent. They assumed it was a decisive and complete victory and told Washington and the world, that the iron lion did in few days, what the whole world failed to do in three years (the failed UNOSM mission).
To add insult to injury, the Abyssinian occupiers staged a bombastic and perhaps foolish celiberations in Mogadishu, hoisting thier flag in Villa Somalia, the once glorious presidential palace of Somalia. The photos of Gen. Gabre, the commander of the Ethiopian occupation army, sitting on what seemed to be the throne of Somalia, flanked by the puppet TFG president and prime minister, was tantamount to incitement to violence. It touched a raw nerve and shocked all Somalis irrespective of their political stance.
The Ethiopians never bothered to consider the mentality and nature of the Somali nation when it comes to national pride, particularly when an outside enemy is concerned. They did not realise that the Somali people still have common interests and values to share and defend together. This is one instance of gross miscalculation By Meles or Mesfin, the two strongmen in Addis Ababa.
Another more conspicuous miscalculation is that they believed in the assessment and advice of president Abdullahi Yusuf, who convinced them he will do the rest of the job, once the Ethiopians pave the way for him. Curiously, Yusuf outsmarted his patrons by skillfully claiming he intends to restore the rule of law in Somalia, when apparently his top priority is to break the backbone of certain enemy clans in Somalia. Ethiopian huge sacrifices are therfore unnecessarily being used for purely clan supremecy in Somalia.
Again, Zenawi, admittedly a clever calculator and expert on Somali affairs got it wrong by underestimating the ability of the insurgency forces to regroup and galvanize the patriotic Somalis into action. Their capability and fighting spirit should have been anticipated by the Addis leadership. Apparently the insurgent forces tactics to strike like cobra and vanish into the narrow streets of Mogadishu works exactly as planned by the liberation forces of Somalia; while the more powerful enemy furiously pounds concrete walls day and night. It is now the occupiers, not the insurgents , who suffers high casualties.
That means without having much experience in urban warfare, the poor Ethiopian green recruits were catapulted into the barbarity of Mogadishu and the fierce Somali insurgents are shooting them one by one. Out of frustration the Ethiopians are reduced imto bombarding residential areas killing and maiming thousands of innocent civilians. That do not serve for any military purpose either. The poor defenceless civilians pay the price.
So, Ethiopia is sucked into a turbulent ocean at a time when other African countries are recluctant to deploy troops in Somalia, the donor powers are growing more skeptical of the validity of Ethiopian occupation due to the unprecedented human rights violations and American foreign policy towords the horn may shift unfavorably.
On the other hand, the insurgents are gathering momentum day after day and continue to harass the occupation army who is pinned down in its strongholds. Frequent ambushes, landmines incessant mortar shells and frontal engagements haunt and immobilize the TFG forces and their Ethiopian collaborators in Mogadishu, while the rest of southern Somalia is controlled by the insurgents.. The TFG forces in Mogadishu are in complete disarray and too weak to deal with the rebels.
In the opinion of many military analysts, prime minister Zenawi, will find it very difficult to pullout his troops out of Somalia today even if he wishes to do so. A failure of judgement and immagination at a critical period for Ethiopia could backfire in the near future.
Ahmed Raghe Hassan
E-mail: [email protected]