by Abdulkadir Abiikar Hussein
Sunday, July 15, 2012
By 1988, Somalia was ailing severely because of a system that lasted for two decades, repressed the freedoms and oppressed the people. Socially, politically and economically the regions felt highly marginalised. Command economy and state ownership of the economy led Somalia into an economic and financial trouble. There were no freedoms unless someone was praising the government or the Somali Socialist Revolutionary Party (SSRP) or appeasing the individuals in the government. Those who reacted and spoke out were cracked down, imprisoned or murdered cruelly. There were no alternative democratic options available to replace the dictatorship of Siyad Barre Regime. Armed struggle was the sole option viable and that track took Somalia to its disintegration into chaos, no rule of law and no central government. A hollow vacuum appeared where clans were squabbling and skirmishes took the stage of the Central Government. What happened in the two decades, from 1969 - 1991 backfired into full blown upheaval and disaster that continues to the present day!
To recover from those tragedies, Somalis came together to formulate their own way-out. After many conventions, they agreed principally on the following milestones:
· 2014: To rebuild Somalia, allowing the regions to come together and form their own Federal Member States based on their wish for self-determination. Some of the regions formed their own self-governments prior to this understanding. Somaliland (1991) and Puntland (1998) were formed on the same popular aspirations. Five-to-seven Federal Member States are possible; and the less the number the more viable the states are. This process is grassroots-driven and it is not possible to anticipate a number for the federal member states. This is followed by demarcation of borders between the federal member states.
· 2014: Stabilise the country and defeat Al-Shabaab and remove them from the equation, using the Somali National Army coupled with AMISOM.
· 2014/15: Revise and amend the Provisional Constitution in accordance to the new union of the federal members that form the Federal Republic of Somalia. An overhaul of the Constitution is appropriate in order to conform to a Republican Constitution (like the USA) or a Parliamentarian Constitution (like Ethiopia or the UK). The Hybrid system of governance is prone to continuous conflicts between the President and the Prime Minister and it is not sustainable in the long term in terms of the stability of the government.
· 2014/15: The Federal Parliament should pass acts that pave the way for political parties and a modern electoral system appropriate for Somalia. The electoral system of 1960 – 1969 (the last election, being in March 1969) can be best described in this way: The national territory of Somalia was divided into 48 constituencies; that is to say one for each district. Deputies were elected by majority vote in the 10 constituencies that had only one seat for contesting; while those constituencies that had two or more seats, the blocked party-list system, with proportional representation was used. In each constituency, all regularly constituted political parties would submit lists of candidates, numbering at least twice and no more than three times the total number of seats to be filled, signed at least by 500 electors from the constituency. Where only one seat is to be filled (there were 10 districts of one seat for contesting), this is attributed to the candidate whose name heads the list which receives most votes. In the remaining 38 constituencies, the seats were distributed in the following manner: An electoral quotient is obtained by dividing the total number of valid votes cast by the number of seats to be filled in the constituency. Each list receives a number of seats equal to the result of the division of its votes by the electoral quotient. If, after this operation, there remain any seats to be filled, a new distribution is made based on a second quotient calculated from the total of the remaining votes of each list, excluding those which failed to obtain a number of votes equal to the first quotient.
· Carry out a population census for every federal member state and then allocate equivalent number of Federal MPs and state MPs. The census can be done using population estimation by remote sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technologies. It is a rapid system and cost effective.
· Registration of the residents of each district: Each district needs to get registered for social, economic and development purposes. An electoral register is also a requirement before the election happens in 2016.
The road to a full democratic Somalia by 2016 seems an impossible mission as it stands today. These SMART goals are achievable and realistic if there is a strong leadership with a full focus, honesty, commitment, positive attitude (towards Puntland, Juba and in general, the federalisation of Somalia) and concentration on these priorities. Though the ride is bumpy, it is an achievable, realistic and attainable within the time-bound. It only needs leaders who have the ability to inspire, self-confident and able to delegate the work and trust others in their duties and responsibilities. Do the President, the Prime Minister and the cabinet have most of those characteristics? Our leaders have spent a lot of recovery time on bickering, squabbles, conspiracies to get rid of each other and unnecessary travels, banquets, events and expenditures. There is some hope now on the new cabinet and in the “newly born-again President!”
Abdulkadir Abiikar Hussein
[email protected]
London, UK