Hiiraan Online

The ousted Prime Minister, Abdi Farah Shirdon

Liban Obsiye & Sakariye Hussein
Monday, December 30, 2013

The most important part of this ceremonial piece which took place in the Prime Minister’s office was not the speeches of the two replacing each other but the last one which was delivered by the President himself. In this short but well-articulated speech, Hassan Sheikh pleaded for all stakeholders to work with the new Prime Minister and to respect his authority. He also charitably offered to share, in his short experience, what he has learnt in his job so that the new man can get up to speed and perform his duties well. At the end of the speech, a group people in a Somali community centre in West London made up of different tribes laughed hysterically and one shouted directly at the TV screen whilst pointing at the president, “You should have given yourself that speech privately Mr. President.” After this point the conversation had turned to how long the much welcomed new Prime Minister Abdiweli Ahmed will last. “My hagbad (Ayuuto) finishes in a years’ time, you can have it if Abdiweli lasts that long,” joked another man.

The appointment of a new Prime Minister is a constitutional requirement and one that the President, Hassan Sheikh, cannot escape from. The difficult transition process from one person to the other in a key office is difficult enough in a tribally, personality led fragile government and perhaps merits some of the praise lavished on it by Nicholas Kay, the top United Nations official in Somalia. However, a smooth transition cannot hide the ugliness and perceived brutality which most of the Somali population believe Shirdon experienced at the hands of the commander in chief in Villa Somalia and his circle of friends.

The outgoing Somali Somali Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon lost a vote of confidence in parliament after 13 months in office, when he fell out with President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud after attempting to sack some of the president's close allies from the cabinet. The ugliness of the whole process was spilled on to Somali websites and TV screens much earlier than the President would have liked and what he must have hoped to be an easy process involving a personal friend whom he knew and worked with before winning the top post, suddenly turned into a titanic struggle undermining his entire leadership, vision, mission and direction.

The former Prime Minister Shirdon lost a vote of confidence by a massive 184 to 65 in Parliament and as such honourably stepped down, in a much celebrated decision which arguably prevented constitutional deadlock and tribal infighting which would have been an enormous embarrassment for the fragile, AMISOM backed central government. Mr. Shirdon himself stated that he was leaving in order to support the weak institutions of the state and to respect and guard the Somali constitution which is still riddled with confusion with regards to Executive powers. This confusion was atleast papered over by the President’s attempt to seek, since he cannot do it himself by law, Parliament’s permission to sack the Prime Minister that the constitution does allow him to pick through personal choice. However, the very viciousness and public nature of the sacking has fuelled public rumours that Parliamentarians were bribed by the government to vote with the President’s motion on a day when there was an unusually full attendance in Parliament. Rumours arguably are plenty within such a divided nation and government but this is dangerous and undermines the legitimacy and the very beliefs that Hassan Sheikh has always sought to embody in his public appearances and speeches.

A major disaster which highlighted the hostility between the President and former Prime Minister’s camps was the private meal held by Villa Somalia for their supporters after the vote. The President was seen smiling, laughing and thanking parliamentarians personally for supporting his motion in what has come to be known nationally and globally by the Somali Diaspora as “Cashadda ceebta.[1]” This meal and the confidence vote will likely be a slow releasing poison for the President because not only did the vote divide a weak tribal parliament but those who voted for him against Shirdon will eventually come to ask for favours in return. This meal and the absence of those who voted for Prime Minister Shirdon to remain in his post at it, more than anything else, illustrates that Hassan Sheikh is no longer the consensual figure he present himself to be to the international community.

The impact of the hasty dismissal of the former Prime Minister Shirdon by Parliament at the request of the Somali president has had an impact far beyond the Somali borders. The government which is still heavily reliant on AMISOM and international support and does not even control some of the South which still are in AlShabaab hands, has lost credibility in terms of maintaining stability within government. This is crucial to investment, security, public confidence and institution building which are all equally as important in the reconstruction of a divided, war torn nation. The President arguably suggested he understood this by stating that he had to sack Shirdon because he was not performing and as such undermining the nation’s progress. However, what is clear to the world is that the vast majority of the time it was he, and not Shirdon, who was orchestrating the government machinery with Shirdon on the sidelines. If indeed Shirdon was incompetent why was this not mentioned sooner?

What is more worryingly is that there appears to be a lack of maturity and clashing visions at the heart of the Somali government. How is it possible that some key Ministers refused to attend their meetings with the former Prime Minister during the period of conflict between the two heads of state? What message does this send to the nation’s stakeholders who are bored of Punch and Judy politics and just want to see a stable, functioning state emerge out of the two decade plus rubble?

In this entire sorry saga Mr. Shirdon emerged as the more consensual figure acting out of the national interest by simply respecting Parliaments wishes. Hassan Sheikh on the other hand has appointed a new Prime Minister but the nice and transparent personality on which his entire image is built on is now in question. Leaders have to make decisions but they must be transparent, fair and take the public with them. Indeed to govern is to choose but on this occasion, the President is found wanting in the court of public opinion with regards to his decision to dismiss Shirdon. He simply has not been convincing enough in his arguments so far.

In all of the Somali President’s visits abroad and his appearance on the Somali media he gives the impression that he is in charge and personally invites the general public to engage with him in the key discussions concerning the nation. However, with the sacking of Shirdon what has become evident is that he is not open to approach from those outside of his own core team in Villa Somalia who act as gatekeepers. This is dangerous for a leader who aims to be transformative enough to rid Somalia of terror and unite its people under a common flag and purpose. The new Prime Minister, having witnessed the experiences of his predecessor, will arguably be far tougher and most likely advised by his tribe to be more confrontational. Even if not advised, in an age of television and image driven politics, the new Prime Minister may flex his muscles to show that he is no poodle. The President has arguably set a bad precedent by drawing his dagger first with poor reasoning against Shirdon in this new age of hope and frighteningly he is not the only one with a dagger in a government of threadbare alliances and tribal interests. In any case, Hassan Sheikh has to stick with this Prime Minister as the slightest in fighting could collapse his government as was the case of Nur Cadde and Abdullahi Yusuf in the past. What should weigh heavily on Hassan Sheikh’s mind is that in the last year, and in quick successions, he has lost two highly competent central bankers who left on bad terms with his administration and now he has dumped his Prime Minister. This only makes the government look increasingly more unstable.

Public opinion and perceptions is key in politics especially in a fragile, war ravaged tribally divided nation. President Hassan Sheikh cannot remain in the comfort of the Villa Somalia bubble surrounded by friends when he is not visiting abroad. The dismissal of Shirdon has undermined the role of the Prime Minister and has presented the President as seeking to limit the power of the office. The only way this damaging and dangerous perception can be rectified is if the constitution is amended to clearly state the roles of both heads of State. Further, it is crucial that the President ventures outside of Villa Somalia and international conferences for ideas and solutions to the key problems facing his country and administration. Clear, effective and early communication could have made the dismissal of the former Prime Minister far easier and more publicly acceptable had it been followed. To make this grave mistake again will certainly cost the President dear.