Hiiraan Online

Having spent the last two decades in Somalia, we can assume the following about the President: he thinks Somalis can resolve their own problems; he clearly loves his country and his people - and he is religiously sufficiently qualified for such seemingly conservative society. This is not a minor issue given the current politics of other majority Muslim countries. Finally, he has on the ground experience working with both international donor nations and other Somalis.  These are quintessentially good identities and the President will need all of these and more as leader of Somali nation.

On the other hand, he comes in with little governing experience. While he has a long track record of work, we know less about his leadership philosophy and therefore we know substantially less about how the new President makes decisions. These are crucial issues given the myriad problems we expect him to solve. Already, a mixed picture is emerging and we will surely learn more as we get to know our President in the coming weeks and months.

The PM Selection: a determinant of a Presidency?

As soon as the President picks a Prime Minister, we will have an answer to this question: How confident is the new President with his own ability to debate issues with people who, presumably, are more intelligent and who might hold different views? If the President chooses someone who is ideologically different from his own, and if he picks someone more “qualified” than him in terms of governance, work experience, education and whole list of other experiences (which we will know) –that should tell us this: the President wants complex ideas, he is confident with his own analysis, and he is aiming higher goals.  These are essential elements of a promising leadership. Secondly, we will know the answer to this query:  What does the new President value most? Does he value trust and loyalty or amicable working relationship and hard negotiations over issues? The answer will be precise. If he selects someone he has known all his life or for a while or someone closer to his ideas (religiously or otherwise) – we should know trust and loyalty is a base rate for the new President. This could invoke trouble for us.

More directly and significantly, the selection will tell us how pragmatic and realistic or how idealistic our new President is. The choice of a Prime Minster will set the path on how the new President will engage political players in our current political systems, both at home and abroad. Each of these players presents a potential menu of options: they might become distrustful and indifferent at best, at worst an enemy, or they might extend a warm welcome hand to the new President. At home, the President will be more pragmatic and realistic if he chooses a qualified person with a larger constituent in the broader and better sense of the word. On the other hand, he will be idealistic to pick equally qualified person but someone with fewer or no constituent that matters politically. While the issue of the “tribal” identity of the new Premier is clearly important in some people’s minds, the more significant for the President and for all of us; is whether the new Prime Minster is an asset – essentially, can he bring more factions into the fold to further a commonwealth goals? This is how politics is leveraged everywhere else and Somali politics should be no different, unless the new President is a betting man.

And what working relationships will the new President and his Premier have with our troublesome neighbors? The President’s pick will foreshadow the stand he might wish to take. For our neighboring countries, it is simply a matter of religiosity and history. We can expect fewer initial problems with a new Prime Minister with no prior and seemingly negative engagement with neighboring countries, and one less ideologically anchored than the President. The opposite is clearly not true and is likely to spell trouble for all of us.

Finally, the new President has received lots of advice and recommendations on the pages of this news site and others like it, and I’m sure he receives even more in private. I would like to add mine to the list:

“Mr. President, politics is the art of the possible. Trust your intuitions less and your singular judgments even lesser. Mr. President, be careful! People are apt to think metaphorically, they almost always think causally and unfortunately, less so statistically. The result: we overestimate what we know, hide our ignorance, discount chance and we end up making lots of serious judgment errors.  Sadly, we are especially to do so when we have to make decisions under “uncertain” conditions – which will cover most of your daily work as a President. Mr. President, this has serious implications for all of us but you can improve your odds remarkably well with a simple solution. Have as many “qualified” people around you who are likely to hold very different views. Ask them to write their “take” on issues beforehand, request real alternatives, and always more than three, have open debates later, consensus is good Mr. President, but it must NOT lead to paralysis. And this is VERY important Mr. President - let it be clearly known that the final word is yours, always.”