Hiiraan Online

by Rashid Yahya
Friday, May 22, 2009

Al-Shabab’s swift and lightning military offensives and the fall of town after town poses daunting challenges to the four month old fragile administration. Though it is hard to tell whether this sweep is a telling tale of Al-Shabab’s military prowess or the staring weakness of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG); one thing is for certain. The fall of Jowhar, the President’s hometown, must have been particularly mortifying to the administration.

At this juncture of events and as a result of the deep predicament the TFG finds itself in, the options at the disposal of the President are not too attractive and the window of opportunity appears to be closing down fast. The situation is so precarious that in order to rescue the weak government, requires selecting between difficult choices of equally uncertain consequences.

The president has either to rely exclusively on his popularity and the strengths of his political positioning to make national appeal and galvanize public support to the defense of the nation or confront the danger solely with the backing of foreign forces.

The first option of containing the conflict internally demands immediate action by building onto the superior favorability advantage the president has over Al-Shabab and harness public support to affect nationwide mobilization effort to confront the crisis. This holds a very strong promise in shaping the outcome of this conflict.

However; pursuing this goal late at this stage of the conflict is filled with unpredictability. But  it offers less political risk and also has the added value of refuting the opposition’s characterization of the president as puppet, here to serve only the interest of others.

Still; credibility is of the essence. Extreme caution is warranted here to ensure total and absolute disassociation of individuals with questionable past or with stained reputation. The success of this endeavor depends on the perceived integrity and the trustworthiness of the people leading the defense campaign.

The other option of foreign intervention is fraught with uncertainties, social pitfalls and huge political risks. Betting on the success of a game of chance carries considerable political and social costs, which may present insurmountable hardships in the future, even if it succeeds slowing down or defeating the current onslaught of Al-Shabab.

However, it is justified to give practical consideration as a means of last resort.

Nevertheless; no matter which direction the wind may blow to, the President must act and act with urgency or face total and humiliating defeat.  It is now or never.

The Internal Option: Challenges and Promises

Though the prospect of success in the local alternative is 50/50; it is highly desirable for sending out a strong message of authenticity in leadership. Relying on the will of the people and standing up for upholding and in the defense of their rights conveys a clear and unambiguous act honor, patriotism and courage; a symbol of leadership not seen in recent Somali history. It bestows upon the President a permanent status of legitimacy and support; that is if he makes direct appeal to his people and explains with honesty and integrity the perils facing the nation and the duties of every citizen to come to its defense.

In order this to be realized though, for one; the overly meek and spiritless disengagement currently in display must be discarded. If the President has yet to wakeup of who he is dealing with, a ruthless and determined group of foes, the cause is already lost.

Dahir Aways, Hassan Turki, Godane, Omar Iimaan and Fu’ad Shongole are not in Mogadishu for sight seeing or to coax Mr. Sheriff to re-embrace Islam. They are here to violently overthrow the government and impose strict and alien interpretation of Islam.

In most cases; the bravery of the general leading a battle determines the outcome. Precious time has already been lost in globe tottering wasteful trips, allowing Al-Shabab to take the initiative and define the President.

It is time to show decisiveness, reclaim the leadership, marshal the forces and ready the fighters for battle. The stakes could not be higher. The fate of  Somalia is on the table.

Secondly; the political capital at the President’s disposal must be cashed in while it still holds value in the eyes of the public. The administration must vigorously pursue galvanizing the public and its supporters to the defense of its faith, culture, language and the future of the country.

The president’s deafening silence in the face of the gathering threat is incomprehensible: No presidential national address, no contrast of policies, and/or vision to articulate the stark differences of the  hopes and promises the government envisions to the despair and perils of what Al-Shabab offers.

Stark Choices: Exposing Al-Shabab:

The TFG’s vision of saving the country involves moderation, tolerance, openness and gradual reformation through public education and enlightenment from bottom-up approach in order to heal the country and bring lasting and durable peace.

Its primary objective is to focus on recovery, the  re-construction of infrastructure, economic development, advancing employment opportunities and the restoration of peace, justice and stability and sense of public security to re-build strong foundation for a healthy and vibrant peaceful Somalia.

In contrast; Al-Shabab’s concept of governance revolves around intolerance, rashness and irrationality. Before any semblance of security or means of public service is put into place; harsh measures of punishment will be enacted: beheadings, stoning-to-death, hand amputations, public floggings and other similarly inhuman and other cruel forms of justice.

These arbitrary and unrestrained exercises of power will pave the way to a life of constant fear with undue severity and harshness, causing flight, refugees and deprivation. This is what fanaticism and rigidity in ideology promises, a perspective diametrically opposite that which the Somali people long for and dream for their children to have.

This will only further traumatize the public; a society already teetering on the edge of insanity because of 20 years of incessant violence. No people who went through such a harrowing ordeal can withstand or bear the pains and the grief inherent under an extremist rule.

The intent here is not blasphemy against Islam, the most righteous of faiths and the most compassionate, sent down for no other purpose but mercy towards all mankind. The question is in the execution of justice as practiced by Al-Shabab, denying the least regard to the rights of the accused: the right to a fair trial, to be heard, to present witnesses and/or an opportunity to present evidence of innocence.

A Pariah Nation: Somalia under Al-Shabab:

Furthermore; with respect to Al-Shabab’s external relationship to the rest of the world; there exists the potential for discord, tension, suspicion, and the eventual outbreak of conflict followed by inevitable internal instability, famine, devastation, and perpetual wars.

Ironically; the source of this inescapable collision course with the international community is driven by Al-Shabab’s world view. As it stated numerous times, this group is not much concerned in alleviating the suffering of their people or rescuing the nation-state of Somalia, but rather it is on a bigger mission to liberate the Moslem ummah.

Now, maintaining an element of realism, yes! The plight and predicament of the Palestinians, the Afghans, the Pakistanis in SWAT and the People of Darfur in Sudan profoundly touch the conscience of every one and specially cause a deep pain to every Moslem, but Somalia is not in a position, at least today, to extend help.

Indeed, Somalia also is in dire situation and in mortal danger of loosing its own sovereignty. Under its present state of affairs, Somalia is too weak, divided and too impoverished to lend a hand in the liberation of other peoples. It is lunacy to be musing such reckless fantasies. 

There are other Moslem nations, more prosperous, stronger and with more resources to fill the void. The world’s Moslem population is estimated to be about 1.3 billion (1, 300,000,000) or put differently, one billion and three hundred million people scattered in over 50 nations through out the 7 continents on earth.

The art of politics is exposing the defects of the opponent’s positions and accentuating the validity of your vision, its strengths, and the hopes you promise.

Again; it is beyond me why the President, the Prime Minister and other officials of the TFG do not capitalize on these facts to discredit Al-Shabab.

A Choice of Last Resort: Inviting Foreign Intervention:

Stop for a minute and imagine this scenario. Moving reinforcement from Huddur, Tiyeglow and Jowhar, Al-Shabab unleashes massive invasion to take Beled Weyne. Again, assume Ethiopia does not interfere and the town falls.

Once more, maintaining the momentum, in a lightning speed, the offensive moves further North to crush Ahlu-Sunna-Wal-Jama’a  and wrestle Dhusa-Mareeb from their hands. This hypothesis, if it were to happen, will virtually leave the entire South-Central regions in the hands of Al-Shabab.

Now; beaming with victory and a sense of invincibility; Al-Shabab sets its eyes on Mogadishu for their final offensive. Understandably; the TFG is in panic and total disarray.

What would you do if you were Sheikh Sharif? Abdicate and surrender; run for your life or make an emergency appeal for foreign intervention?

In all probability; Sharif will invite foreign intervention. But; where will this leave the President’s standing and prestige in the eyes of the people? Can foreign intervention succeed militarily in a totally hostile local environment? How much internal support can the TFG count on if Ethiopia were to re-enter Somalia?

Moreover; and most important; how much human suffering and devastation will this kind of intervention cause and how long will it last?

These are difficult questions to answer, fraught with unpredictable risks and uncertainties. Indeed; one may contemplate if giving in to the extremists is perhaps the better alternative.

Nevertheless; the analysis presented here and the alternatives mentioned earlier are not mutually exclusive choices but self reinforcing because the government can pursue some or all of them in tandem.

For instance; urgent and effective mobilization of the public pursued in parallel with international appeal for support in achieving the TFG’s objectives can and has a pretty good chance of success. But, provided that nations contributing armed forces are strictly limited to Islamic nations only.

 The interim president and his administration have already an oasis of considerable goodwill and support both within and outside the country and must start capitalizing on these under-utilized opportunities before they dry up.

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