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by Omar N Mohamed
Friday, March 27, 2009
Part one
In the tragically driven drama in Somalia, there are inside players, outside actors and two victims.
Whether it is the inside players or outside actors, each one creates a cascade of events, actions and steps that guarantees the perpetuation of the plight that tremendously affected the two victims –Somalis and the Somali Country-
The inside players can be summarized as follows:
1- The warlords
2- The Religious groups-Particularly those who have extreme views.
3- The Imposed TFG’s
4- The Clanish associations and
5- Interest oriented groups.
The outside actors are:
1- The Regime of Meles Zenawi in Ethiopia
2- The Misguided American policy and interventionism
3- The Impotence of the Arab league
4- The EU and the African Union indifference
5- The UN assigned employees to Somalia in Nairobi
6- The IGAD ( mainly Ethiopia, Kenya, Eretria and Djibouti)
7- Unknown players
All these actors and players put fire, fuel and fire-wood around the victims (Somali people and its’ country) and ask themselves “Why the flame”? Some did it intentionally. Others did obliviously or as a collateral consequence of things they did. Some also did it due to their limited knowledge about the complexities in Somali affairs.
The irony about the whole drama is that everybody is looking for the fire hydrant (fire extinguisher) while the fumes and the flames engulf the victims.
In some actors or players, I should fairly say that there are, although in the minority, those who genuinely try to help Somalis as a country and as a people to come together stand on its own feet.
The Somali drama is complicated by the constant and calculated Intervention of Meles Zenawi regime of Ethiopia.
The Meles Zenawi regime has two goals:-
1- The Regime of Zenawi has a regional interest and long term interest.
Because Sudan is consumed by its internal strive, UN and international pressure in the Darfur crisis. Consequently, Ethiopia assumes the responsibility of the superpower in the Horn of Africa. Thus Ethiopia benefited by carrying that hat.
2- Somalia as a state should be a country conditionally aligned with Ethiopia .Should has weak military capabilities and politically and geographically fractured (like those of Somaliland, Puntland, Jubaland, “Waxba” land etc). Kenya is within an agreement in this strategic aspect of Ethiopia.
For Meles to fulfill that objective, he has to devise a tactical plan and simply do a few things for every Somali Government to fail.
1- All warring factions including Al-Shabab should have enough weapons
2- The TFG and the Sharif group should both have enough supplies of weapons.
3- Suspicion should be planted between different groups so the trust eludes everybody. For instance, Ethiopia immediately praised President Sharif Ahmed enough to trigger the bellicose statements from Sh H Dahir Aways, Dr. Omar Iman, Abu- Mansor and others.-Calling him their familiar phrase of “RIDDA”or RIDAA affiliate.
4- Ethiopian causalities are decreased while those of Somalis are augmented.
5- Sharif regime should fail the same way A. Yusuf’s government failed
6- Convince the European and United State the presumed danger cropping up from Somalia.
The Eritrean factor:
Eretria as people likes to help the Somalis in general. They know the way Somalis, as government and as people, helped them during their 30 year struggle against the brutal Ethiopian occupation.
The Eritrean regime has two strategic interests:
1- To perpetuate the Somali drama so that there is always a potential threat from Somali to Ethiopia.-for counter balance purpose.
2- Any government that comes to Somalia must at least befriend Eritrea or at least not be aligned with Ethiopia.
The Application of Sharia to Somalia
The group (Al-Shabab) that is currently waging war or opposing Sharif’s government argues that they want the full application of Sharia laws in Somalia.
The regime led by Sheikh Sharif Ahmed is in a difficult situation due to internal factors and external pressure .The likelihood of succumbing to failure is high. They do not have any problem adopting the Islamic Sharia, as the council of the ministers approved recently. It is the Al-Shabab’s version of Sharia or their own interpretation that is questioned?
The Al-shabab group is ideologically driven, stringent in their interpretation of Islam and devoid of different opinions that Islam often entertains.
It appears that they are misusing the Islamic Religion to serve their own ambitions and interests
A good number of religious scholars who oppose their views peacefully are killed. The latest were the two killed in Galkaio and the one in Beledweyn.
They equally wage war even against those who are peacefully doing the Mowlid Festival on Mosques.
The last event happened in Bardheere and some parts in Somalia.
The Somali religious scholars who recently met in Mogadishu, clearly stated that there is no religious proof/reference that allows any group to kill Muslims simply because they express different opinion or offer an acceptable interpretation of Hadith or Ayah ( in the Sunnah or Quran).
On AMISOM (African forces in Somalia) issue: the Scholars stated that it is not islamically allowed to invade this Army since they were invited and equally recommended to leave the country peacefully in 120 days.
Al-Shabab and their affiliates did not heed that call and invaded them anyway. This caused high civilian casualties that was not needed at this time in Mogadisho since the Ethiopian forces of occupation withdrew from the country.
The Government of Sharif:
The government is made up of two adversaries which is marriage of convenience, composed of the remnant of the TFG and the Union of Islamic Courts- the Djibouti branch.
The regime assignment is to untangle the complicated web tied to huge explosives. If he (Sharif) and his government can not handle cautiously with prudence and bold actions, he is doomed to failure.
Where is Somalia currently heading? A road to nowhere or a road to somewhere?
It all relies on how, we as Somalis can accommodate one another, forgive one another and hold together as brothers and sisters, fathers and mothers, leaders and the lead. And discuss our issues peacefully.
We have more than 3 million on the verge of starvation. We have thousands of widows and orphans in every city. We do not need to fight whether Mowlid (the birth of Prophet Mohammad celebration-May Peace and blessing be upon him- is acceptable or not
Time will tell. Let us hope the best.
Omar N Mohamed
E-mail: [email protected]