Hiiraan Online

Abdi Jama (Gunna-Guune)
Thursday, January 08, 2009

To begin with, the resignation of President Yusuf seems to have caught off guard many Somalis and political analysts around the world who regarded him as an authoritarian, stubborn who would never yield to neither domestic nor international pressure. But to me, he appears to be a cool headed and calculated pragmatic politician who realized that there is no way out of his predicament except to quit and fight from the outside. Having said that, the move can be a positive step – a removal of the first obstacle towards political reconciliation in Somalia but a lot will hinge on the quality of his successor, the successful implementation of Djibouti agreement between TFG and ARS, the political and material support afforded by the international community to the new administration, and most importantly, Ethiopia’s long term political and strategy objectives in Somalia.  Thus far, Ethiopian policy towards Somalia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and instead contributed to the continuing destruction, sufferings, chaos and anarchy in the country. So, now if Ethiopia reverses its failed policy on Somalia and comes to the realization that a stable Somalia serves its own interest, then there is good chance of reaching a lasting peace in Somalia.

Conversely, given the circumstances that led the president’s resignation, the move has the potential of opening a new Pandora box in Somalia with political ramification that could slide the country back to square one. How could it happen? As we know, the current Somalia parliament is based on a power-sharing formula called 4.5 where four major clans get equal representation in the parliament, while other small groups are allocated half of a major clan.  Now, let us assume the president manages to influence enough parliamentarian members from his own clan to resign and follow him while the Somaliland was already outside of current process. This could cast a doubt the legitimacy of the rest. Sure the president won’t be able to persuade everyone from his larger clan “Darod” but he can split them to the point where whoever opts to stay will feels minority, insecure or unimportant among the more represented clans. This is one possibility.

Resignation of the President & the Decline of Al-shabab influence

Some readers my find it laughable at the mere correlation about the resignation of the president Yusuf and the demise of Al-shabab influence in Somalia given the hostile relationship between the two and the fact that Al-shabab now controls large swathes of territory in Somalia and are trying to take control of the rest of the country as soon as the Ethiopian troops depart. But despite that fact, I predict the resignation of the president will be, ironically, the beginning of the end for Al-shabab influence in Galgaduud, Hiiraan, Banadir, middle Shabelle and lower Shabelle regions of Somalia, and the formation of new coalitions. 

I came to this conclusion after carefully examining the group’s history, support base, their current leadership, and the Ethiopian factor. Let us know examine those points in details:

A)    History of the group:  The hard core supporters of the current Al-shabab group are former military wing of the now defunct Al-Ithahad who retreated to Mogadishu after they were defeated Gedo region by Ethiopian troops in the late 1990s. It is also worth mentioning that most of Al-shaba forces were mainly from outside of Mogadishu and were given shelter and support by other Islamic groups operating in Mogadishu.  So after few years of hiding, they re-emerged with new name “Al-Shabab” under the leadership of Hashi Ayro (later killed by US air strike in May 1, 2007) and Hassan Turki. Al-shabab played an important role in defeating Mogadishu Warlords and later spearheaded the campaign to bring the whole Somalia under the IUC control. The group is also blamed to have facilitated or at least given necessary justification for the Ethiopia invasion of Somalia by their rhetoric and military threat to Ethiopia.   With the defeat of Islamic Union Courts in December 2006 by the Ethiopian and the TFG forces, the group retreated back to Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Kismanyo, regrouped and mounted a constant guerilla war against the Ethiopian troops and later expanded their operations in Banadir, Hiiraan, and Galgaduud regions of Somalia.

B)      Conditional Support: At the moment the support that Al-shabab receives from these regions they now operate like Banadir, Hiiraan, Galgaduud, and lower shabeelle is being mainly generated by the hatred of Ethiopian occupation and the power vacuum created by the inability of the interim government to extend its control beyond certain parts of Mogadishu and Baydhaba. Hence, the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia and the resignation of President Yusuf will eliminate the need of Al-shabab to carry on the war. The only other way that Al-shabab can remain to operate in those regions is to join ARS wing in Asmara and become a junior partner where Dahir Aweys becomes the real power behind the operation.

C)    Al-Shabab’s current leadership: as I mentioned in the group’s history, Al-shabab was founded by late Hashi Aden (Ayro) who was killed by US air strike in 2007 and Hassan Turki but after the death of Ayrow, Mukhtar Roobow and Hassan Turki became the defacto leaders. In Somali clan politics, legitimate political power and clan loyalty are inseparable. Despite fact that Al-shabab diehard supporters’ allegiance transcends clan loyalty, a broad base support for the group requires a broad clan base. In that connection, in the eyes of the Somali layman, the group belongs to Roboow and to Hassan Turki and their support in the above regions is temporary and subject to the removal of the occupation forces. So once the Ethiopian troops withdraw from Somalia, if power struggle ensues in those areas, then clan interest will dominate over religious affiliation.

D)    Ethiopian Factor:  Although Ethiopia declared that they are withdrawing their troops from Somalia, they intend to re-position them into the border areas between the two countries as an expeditious force to break the back of Al-shabab whenever they become a threat locally or otherwise. This will give the advantage to other groups now competing for the control of Somalia like Djibouti wing of ARS and Ahlu Sunnah Waljama.

The Return of the old man to Puntland and its consequence

After years of corruption, nepotism and neglect, especially under the old guard leadership, particularly Ade’s administration, people of Puntland have finally got an opportunity to elect the best among a slate of able, educated, young, and not so young candidates with expertise and knowledge necessary to execute the difficult task before the state. Notable figures among the above list of candidates is Mr. Nuradin Aden Dirie whom, I am confident, if elected,will lead the people of Puntland to prosperity and better future. He has a vast experience and deep understanding of both local and international issue as well as connection with the UN institutions.

Having said that, I am afriad that the return of the presidednt Yusuf  might tilt the outcome of the election towards the Ade camp since the two had developed a good relationship over the last four years and Yusuf has vested interest to see the incumbent Ade remain in office so he will be influential power players in Puntland.

In conclusion: The current vicious circle of problems in somalia could not be blamed on the act of one man or for that matter for few individuals but is collective and cumulated failures of the whole society. Therefore, until and unless Somalis take back the controll of their country as a people, players can be changed but the game will continue. The same old game will continue and the people will remain spectators.