Are we witnessing the count down of another apocalyptic in Mogadishu and elsewhere in South/Central Somalia?

by Aden Mohamed Tani
Tuesday, January 06, 2009

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Colonel Abdillahi Yusuf is back to Puntland, Sheikh Aden Madood became the provisory President of what was once know as Somalia and the Somali Premier Minister Mr Nur Cade is struggling for the defuse Djibouti peace accord after Ethiopians claimed to leave Somalia for a while.

In Mogadishu, the epicentre of the Somali tragedy, various armed groups started to position their militia at strategic points vacated by TFG and Ethiopian force. The leaders of the business centre of Mogadishu ( Bakaarah) others call Mogadishu Mafia centre, protested against the fact that ARS forces took over the Somali police headquarter in Mogadishu and it is only a question of time that these two Business giantess leaders in Mogadishu order the usual bloody clashes in the town.

Besides that, in Mogadishu, the time for new criminal war coalitions and alliance generally based on clan or religious schema just kicked off. A violent reoccupation of the various parts of the destroyed city of Somalia is galloping towards targeted objects. The resurrected Mogadishu warlords in cooperation and protection of their Clan insurance are about to set the demarcation lines in town and check points in the ruin city.

Ethiopian forces are reported to leave Somalia by organising first war among rivalling clan groups in Gedo and in many regions in South and Central of Ex-Somalia. In Baidao Jacnaajo, ex-warlords from the region are mobilising a mix of clan forces and desperate TFG forces to defended or settle the security of the city or perhaps to save their skin from Al-shabab.

In Galguduud region, Al-Shabab and self declared moderate Islamic forces are fighting for unknown agenda on the back of innocent people who severely suffered droughts during the last couple of years.Hassan Dahir Aweis, the self nominated leader of Asmara ICU called for the immediate end of the fighting in the area but not for Mogadishu.

In Hiiraan, the Islamists power holders are dealing with cosmetic activities in Beltween like organising spectacular action against poor gamblers in town instead of solving the fragile peace and security situation of the region.

In Bay and Bakool, Ethiopian backed Militia and warlords took over the town Kanshdheere and Dinsor in Bay region and are heading toward the Al-Shabab strongholds like Bardhaare, Buaale and Saako, the most productive area in Middel Juba.

In Kismayo, the Islamic forces there that became popular in the media more or less by stoning 13 years old girl or destroying religious places are nervously waiting the next bloody storm in Kismayo.

In the middle of this very possible scenario which is based on the coming up clan and religious fragmentations in many places of the country are the innocent and weak Somali masses.

The Ethiopian Foreign Ministry said in an e-mailed statement yesterday in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa. “Mission accomplished,” Our defence forces have carried out a successful mission to eliminate the clear and present danger that our country had faced two years ago.”

By serious, sincere and self critic consideration of the above statement and the above illustrated worst case scenario for South and Central Somalia, I will not disagree with the Minister that Ethiopian forces have done ironically a good job because Somalia will remain a failed Stated for the next 20 years and Ethiopian have no problem with that.

Who is to claim? It is time that the Islamic forces and all self declared South and Central Somalia politicians understand that their will be no winner in the coming up inferno.

It is time to understand that the obvious and deadly political Cocktail in South and Central Somalia which consist of clan political dogmatism and religious sectarians will lead our people to no where.

It is the responsibility of Al-shabab and all other political and religious actors in the country to save our people from another apocalyptic and human disaster. Otherwise, it will be difficult for our people to believe that the fight against Ethiopian army and TFG forces was to achieve peace and prosperity in a pragmatic minor in Somalia.

To the address of the Somalis in the Diaspora, the time for tendentious Congratulations to the bloodily rivalling groups back home is over. No group or clan is better or wise than the other. It is time to articulate a strong and united voice against the masters of death in South and Central Somalia.

Aden Mohamed tani
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