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by Ahmed Ibrahim
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
As we failed for 17 years long, it appears the clock still ticking as same as before, chaos, killings, and starvation and mass exodus from cities still continuing. What have changed are the political strategies adopted among the warring factions and the new unashamedly backing from some world heavy weights and some bitter enemies.
In the past conflicts were between clan versus clan and clan affiliated militant versus another, now it’s a group claiming to be the only legitimate party to rule the country (Transitional Federal Government) and Islamic Courts now called Alliance for Re-liberation Somalia or ARS. TFG comprises former warlords and their henchman backed by Ethiopian troops and CIA. In the other hand the ARS is a group comprises Islamic Courts leaders chased out by Ethiopian forces in December 2006, former warlords and failed TFG parliamentarians, backed by Eritrea arch enemy of Ethiopia and some Arab governments.
Since Ethiopian invasion in December 2006, the misery of Somalis has reached to a point where the international community could not resist to intervene if not physically but also morally. This was indicated in UN Security Council resolution for Somalia, which approved the UN bodies in Nairobi to move in Somalia. Thanks to South African and UK envoy’s who tirelessly pressured the Security Council to act on Somalian situation. This is good news and will provide a right step for political and humanitarian presence in Somalia.
However, allowing to deploy blue helmets has been cut short with condition that until they see improvement on political and humanitarian level, but also does not explain what degree or target needs to be achieved when we already know that Somali political situation is unlikely to improve so long that the warlords walks free dictating Somalian politics thru gun point and Ethiopian forces remain in Somalian soil. African forces to treat Somalian 17 years wounds is an illusion to many, since they are weak in terms of militarily, commanding strategy and financially. Therefore, the Security Council need to adopt different approach on how Somali peace might be achieved.
The UN envoy to Somalia Mr Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah initiatives were good, however, there is bigger blockers behind Somalia to became peace, US and its ally Ethiopia are one of them, to remove this blocker will be biggest test for Mr Abdallah. The second blocker is bringing to justice dozens of warlords and their associates for the crimes they committed in past 17 years, though he mentioned recently removing the impunity from this group, however, it will be tough as they have some support from neighbouring countries. A classical example would be the current president who was a warlord and alleged some that he has killed hundreds of an armed civilians in his home state Punt-land in 1990’s, removing him from his post require enormous efforts
including Somalis backing for such move.
Somalia still has unfinished business, there is still bitterness between the clans and there had been no efforts from either international level or national level to conciliate the past mayhem and carnage inflicted from one to another. Lands and territorial dispute are the one requires the highest resolution, without solving this anything else would be less favourable.
As the UN envoy pointed out the solution is in the hands of Somalia (our hands), he is right that the only comfort the international community can provide us is the right environment where we can solve our problems once for all no matter how long it takes. though the opportunity to solve our problem is there , but the time might not be right, given the difficulties that US and its allies put on Somalia in its so called war on terror, which exacerbated the already fragile places in the south and put a cliff hanger in the northern regions like Puntland ans Somaliland.
Djibouti conference will produce nothing, because the TFG does not have the mandate to make any its own decision, it has to appease its protectors (the Ethiopians and US) and the other party will not accept anything favor to Ethiopians because their backer (Eritrea) will not satisfy anything less than humiliating its arch enemy, the Ethiopians. In this sense, the UN will achieve little or nothing to improve any political progress, unless UN spells out how it wants to encourage peace in Somalia. Therefore, the deployment of blue helmet force is needed now in order to safe guard the humanitarian side.
Ahmed Ibrahim
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