by Ahmed Raghe
Friday, 18 July, 2008

The Alliance of the re-liberation of Somalia (ARS), largely well respected clerics from the Union of Islamic courts, is in a political quagmire! Intoxicated by the smell of power, intransigence and lack of conflict resolution skills, the alliance leadership has shown the same warlord mentality which wrecked Somalia for two decades.

Long before the recent Djibouti agreement brokered by the UN, the alliance upper echelon was malfunctioning! The Djibouti accord has only served as the last straw. It was naive and reckless to let the simmering fire unattended.

In my opinion, the following critical measures should have been taken before entertaining to attend the Djibouti peace conference:

1.   To take care of the internal friction within the ARS leadership. This group includes the Asmara and Djibouti wings. Since they were Asmara based before the rift, they had ample time to iron things out. What were they doing, one wonders!

2.   The ARS should have made the necessary consultations (negotiations if required) with the militarily stronger Al-shabab wing. Here, a compromise could have been forged between the ARS and Al-shabab, without sacrificing fundamental principles. By taking this route, the liberation forces struggle would have been much more effective and the chances for peace nearer.

3.   To send to Djibouti delegates representing all the stakeholders within the Islamist establishment plus other secularist notables in the insurgency. Duplication and further fragmentation avoided.

Now, the ARS leadership is back to square one and frantically try to shift gears. Despite assurances and recent endeavours in Yemen, many analysts predict more pitfalls ahead which may hamper peace in Somalia.

The clerics of Somalia therefore grapple with a seemingly intractable problem- one they may not have the imagination or the good will to attend! They should know that the Somali people are tied of the prolonged conflict and do not care in what name you kill them!! That they could be the future notorious warlords of Somalia.

My earnest appeal to the Asmara and Djibouti factions is to reconcile from within, before they venture to do business with others!

TheCleverOne @ 7/21/2008 12:02 AM EST  The Asmara group is vehemently opposed to any peace deal, or so it seems. Given that they're in a pariah state (Eritrea) where Muslims (and even Christians) suffer greatly under the madness of the dictator there, I doubt any tangible results will come out of group there. The country hosts various rebel groups. It sees the continued war in Somalia as a way to keep its arch enemy busy, have leverage on regional issues. Otherwise, the country lacks political capital. Eritrea's seat at the UN/AU is usually empty, has very little diplomatic contact with the outside world, grabbles with fleeing youth/population. I doubt such country would have the best interest (peace) of Somalia, or anything other country, in mind. The Jibouti group is seemingly aware of this and Sheikh Sharrif calling on Eritrea to support peace is a clear indication.

qig504 @ 7/20/2008 7:58 PM EST  The US/UN and the EU must stop that out-dated freakish Idea that says “ Do I say or else I will call you a terrorist “!!.  It doesn’t scare a Chicken for God sake!!!.  It is the 21st  Century.  Look at North Korea,  they were called terrorists until they actually terrorise the Okinawa US Air Base in Japan by flying a  5000kg  long range ballistic missile that landed on the Pacific Ocean next Honolulu.  Within weeks calling North Korea terrorist was dropped, and within months it was negotiating sitting next to the USA on a round table as an equal partner.   Iran is another good example!.  Just days ago it was the terrorist and Israel was inching to be sent-in to stop the terrorist!. Look at Iran today after flying few  5000kg  long range ballistic missiles around.  Within days calling Iran terrorist was dropped,  and now the USA is willing to sit on a round table with Iran as an equal partner for the first time!!!.  Even the Kalashnikov wilding Afghanis and Iraqis are still making headlines after half dozen years of trying to scare them off  with “ Do I say or else I will call you a terrorist strategy“!!. It is not working!!.  It is 21st  Century!!.  People are still willing to sacrifice their lives for the sovereignty of their country no matter what names you call them!!. Let the AL-SHABAB be al-shabab and defend their country from these maroooding raw meat eating cannibals from their Somalia. They are entitle to that, isn’t it ??

qig504 @ 7/20/2008 12:08 AM EST  The truth both Asmara and Djibouti factions of the ARS are trying to avoid by all means especially the Djibouti one is that they cannot do without the AL-SHABAB. No matter the west's huuhaa support [empty shell]to any of the ARS factions which the Djibouti faction seems very satisfied with, their support from the Somali public opinion from Galkacyo - Raas kambooni will be very limited one. The ARS and the AL-SHABAB need to recognise each other politically as much as they do in the battle-ground. The Somalis are watching very much so, and any contempt to their public opinion will be a blow to the ARS's political life which the west is Banking-on