Hiiraan Online

Unquestionably, the break-up hampers the re-liberation of Somalia and undermines the overwhelming public loyalty and support for the ARS. Thousands of Somalis admire and look up to the founders of the ARS as heroes, liberators. Such high regard and overwhelming public trust is waning away. I am afraid, my confidence in the ARS leadership hits rock bottom! A growing international conspiracy to create an incapacitating division in the Alliance is at full swing. The main objective is not formation of a national unity government in Somalia, but to weaken strength of the rising resistance movement in southern Somalia.

16 months of Ethiopian occupation has not made Mogadishu safer than the reign of the ruthless warlords. By far, the capital city was in immaculate condition in comparison to today’s debris and wreck. Mogadishu, the epic centre of horrendous battlefields, has to endure horrors of death, starvation, displacement and diseases and a huge humanitarian tragedy on a scale never seen before. As ragging inferno engulfs all cities in south Somalia, the UN is still debating which country is able to ferry the AU troops out of their countries.

Understandably, the stiff resistance activities in Mogadishu have deterred the deployment of 8000 strong AMISOM troops in Somalia. Only a handful of Ugandan and Burundian troops have been deployed unenthusiastically. The Addis Ababa regime clandestinely kept the AMISOM troops at bay so that the Ethiopian troops would finish off the remnant of the hard core Islamist fighters before the deployment of AMISOM soldiers take place. Foolishly, Ethiopians tread where the “angels dread!” Their vested interest is the ultimate annexation of Somalia. It is a well documented fact that Melez Zenawi’s oppressive regime has always acted as a catalyst for the breakup of Somalia into small fiefdoms ruled by despotic warlords. Ethiopia deploys troops in order to pacify Somalia is weeping crocodile tears! Call it a bluff.

A collation of resistance movement known as Al Muqawamah launches devastating counter-attacks against the invaders. In retaliation, the petrified Ethiopians indiscriminately bomb residential quarters causing mass execution, exodus and unparalleled humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa. The Ethiopian army in Mogadishu is feeling the brunt as well. Extremely stretched out and bogged down in the country of Sultans, wadaads and, warranle warriors, the Ethiopian troops lament meddling in Somalia’s nightmarish affairs in the first place. The miscalculated invasion of Somalia is not a blockbuster (success) for the raw meat eaters!

In recent days, there has been a renewed interest in the Somali conflict initiated by the UN’s special envoy to Somalia. The ill-plotted initial strategy of forceful elimination of the so called radical Islamist groups has backfired. Despite massive firepower, the enemy troops have been unsuccessful in making any significant improvement on the ground. Moreover, the Transitional Federal Authority still remains ineffective, dysfunctional by any standard. Roughly estimated, over 75 per cent of southern strategic cities have been recaptured by the opposition forces. Ethiopia’s unrealistic ambition of taming Mogadishu in fortnight has been shattered. The military option is concluding in fiasco. Alternatively, a political option is about to be launched in which the ARS is urged to be a main player.

Ethiopia demands a continued occupation of Somalia because the Islamic rebels keep threatening the puppet interim government. Ethiopia bluffs. She claims if the troops withdraw without a replacement the Islamist will definitely overthrow the TFG. This position, which prolongs the stalemate, has been viewed as a credible claim by many in the west. The TFG, as an interim institution, has very slim chance to survive and doomed to fail even if the entire world deploys troops to Somalia. Simply put, the TFG lacks competence, leadership, morale and support to lead the battle hardened Somalia out of its current mayhem. It imperative the ARS balance the political equation in Somalia and assume a leading role.

Nowadays, Ethiopian politicians are lobbying for a peaceful exit strategy from Somalia, an honourable withdrawal akin to mission accomplished. This comes after heavy loses and relentless attacks on the Ethiopian troops in Mogadishu. It is for the ARS executive council to decide whether to cautiously hail the new move or not. Clearly Ethiopians dread, hasty, ignominious departure in case people in Ethiopia view it as disgraceful retreat.  

If the Ethiopians persist on continuing the occupation of Somalia, the powerful opposition group will humiliate them. The enemy troops are trotting “between the devil and the deep blue see.” They are in big dilemma- to flee or die in the land of the warranle! The TPLF regime in Addis Ababa is highly anxious about this issue surrounding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from Somalia.

God willing, if the Djibouti accord succeeds, Ethiopia will have no excuse to put off withdrawal of its troops from Somalia. It is deplorable negotiating with the traitor TFG, but the ARS as a whole, must take into account the looming international pressure on all the stakeholders. The crisis in Somalia has attracted world-wide condemnation and empathy.

In my opinion, judging the situation on the ground, the ARS making a concession is a bold step which merits a round of applause and optimistic reception.  The ARS’s first priority is getting rid the invaders from Somalia by military or political means. The latter option seems viable at the moment. At least the UN is having a go. Therefore, it is advisable that ARS avail itself of this opportunity. The ARS then should not be accused of non-engagement with the UN envoy or the other negotiators. Perhaps, the world will listen to the plight of the oppressed people of Somalia with sympathetic ears. Perhaps fellow human beings would rise up in support of justice and denounce the atrocity in Somalia.

To the majority, the Djibouti accord means the following:

·         withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops from all Somali territories

·         permanent cessation of hostilities,

·         stability and normalcy;

·         genuine clan reconciliation;

·         re-allocation of confiscated properties and individual assets;

·         safe return of all internally dislodged masses;

·         repatriation of refugees;

·         speedy delivery of humanitarian assistance;

·         huge investment by the Diaspora;

·         reconstruction of the country;

·         international collaboration and developmental projects;

·         employment opportunities;

·         regaining the long-lost gift of life-peace and security;

·         re-unification of Somalia;

·         prosperity and economic enhancement;

Isn’t that all Somalia needs now? Today thousands of profoundly disenchanted supporters wish the ARS leadership to compromise. Visionary leaders often adopt a policy of peace and negotiation at times. Intransigency and implacability can be labelled with radicalism even if one is pursuing a just cause as in the case of Somalia. For a long period of time Somalis have deprived themselves of the right to live in peace and harmony. Can’t we hear the oppressed Somali people are yearning for long-lost, God-given precious gift in life-peace? Truly, Somalia has had enough agony!

As credible leaders and members of the Alliance, I directly call upon you to resolve the damaging rift and exercise forbearance. To err is human. Fallibility is the second nature of all mankind, but it should not be allowed to ruin the common target which is liberating, restoring law and order in the beleaguered country. Somali people want to live in peace and they want it now. No appetite for further disappointments. Procrastination kills!!

The proposed cease fire does not stipulate surrendering weapons to the enemy. Neither does it mean demobilisation of the freedom fighters. The Alliance retains its arsenal, withholds its fire and collaborates with monitors until such time the enemy commits a breach first. If, for whatever reasons, the cease fire has been violated, the resistance groups are still in possession of their arsenal weapons and can resume enemy assaults without being liable.   In essence, it is the best interest of the ARS to restraint itself and to uphold the peace deal. When inevitable, the ARS may fight the invaders and participate in the reconciliation dialogues simultaneously. Be optimistic and give sponsors benefits of the doubt!

On one hand, if the Djibouti Accord bears fruit because of the ARS participation, the Alliance will get credit for endorsing the agreement, for giving peace a chance. On the other hand, if all failed to materialise, the Alliance had acted in accordance with the peace deal anyway. Therefore, Somali people would not blame the ARS for failure of the peace deal.  Either way, the ARS could be a hero. However, if the ARC remains intransigent, divided and allowed itself to be manipulated by foreign agents, then the ARS could crash or lose public loyalty. If the current rift in the ARS remains unresolved there can be no peace in Somalia no matter how powerful the powerful or well-connected the participating group is.

One lesson that Somalia’s long political conflict teaches us is that any peace accord will be inconclusive if one opposing group is not the official member of the signatories of that agreement. To avoid yet another frustration, the ARS must realise that the future of the Djibouti accord partly lies in their hands. It is delusion to assume the accord will be implemented without the Asmara wing of the ARS. No one can pin hope on assumptions. The Asmara wing of the ARS should be an important component of the peace deal. They should not be underestimated. The public opinion is inclined towards Djibouti summit and favours an ongoing tripartite dialogue. People want the ARS to either uphold or reject the peace deal as one, not on two opposing fronts. I envisage that the Djibouti Accord will receive the full support of the international community.  They promised to fulfil their humanitarian obligation towards Somali people.

In the meantime, I strongly urge the ARS leaders to resolve their differences amicably and maintain the unity of the credible alliance. If differences prevail, it would be a big blow to peace, re-liberation of Somalia. This would mean continued occupation of the enemy, prolonged reign of the despised, unpopular TFG and humiliation of Somali people. Personal ambition aside, let us all show solidarity, fraternity, courage to put out the inferno in our beloved country and give our people a tiny ripple of hope.

Alim Dhayow

Email: [email protected]